By Svitlana Morenets

Oct 13

The analysis

The battle for Avdiivka

Ukrainian ground is on fire. The Russian forces have launched an offensive across the entire front line in their final push before winter, with more than a hundred combat clashes taking place yesterday. One of the defining battles of the war is happening in Avdiivka, a suburb of occupied Donetsk, which had been under the control of pro-Russian militants for three months in 2014 until it was liberated. Now Avdiivka is under attack again, with Ukrainian soldiers trying to stop the largest offensive on the city since the onset of the full-scale war.

Avdiivka has been semi-encircled by Russian forces from the north, east and south for months, with little changes on the ground. In the initial assault on Tuesday, approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers and up to a hundred armoured vehicles descended upon the city. The Russian troops were aiming for a blitzkrieg: they live-streamed their assault, declared a ‘massive offensive’ and showed their aviation heading to bombard Avdiivka. Russian infospace gave the impression that they were on the verge of entering the city.

Ukrainian soldiers raised the alarm on social media, saying Russians were trying to take them in a full circle. Some described the situation as ‘hell’. Others said they were outnumbered and several positions were lost. Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka, where they encountered minefields, anti-tank defences and heavy artillery fire. From there, the infantry began advancing in small groups of 20 to 30 people, simultaneously infiltrating from more than a dozen directions. Vitaly Barabash, head of the Avdiivka military administration, described them as ‘cockroaches, trying to find a loophole in’.

Russian gains around Avdiivka are not sufficient to encircle the city permanently and Russia will likely struggle to hold its positions, accordingto the Institute for the Study of War. Today, Avdiivka remains one of the most heavily fortified frontline areas in Donetsk Oblast. A successful encirclement of the city will likely require more forces than Russia is currently deploying, and the Russian command is aware of this. Russian irregular forces dominate this area, plagued by poor leadership, abuse, poor discipline and minimal training. The Russian military command is likely aimed to draw attention to their very ability to conduct combat operations, pin down Ukrainian forces and stop reserves from moving to key areas of Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhya region.

So far, the Avdiivka offensive showed that the real challenge comes when both armies need to switch from defence to offence, which is especially tough in this tech-driven war. While the big strategy calls for attacking instead of just defending, soldiers are struggling to break through the enemy lines head-on. Encircling Avdiivka is Russia’s best shot to gain at least one small achievement before the first snow.

The city, once home to 32,000 people, now lies in ruins. The evacuation of civilians continues, with more than 1,600 residents still clinging to what remains.

In pictures

Kherson: Worshippers at a Sunday service brace themselves during an attack by Russia. Several shells exploded near the church, injuring two people. (Credit: Local media ‘Most’)

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Quote of the week

‘Avdiivka. We are holding our ground. It is Ukrainian courage and unity that will determine how this war will end. We must all remember this.’

– Volodymyr Zelensky on his Telegram channel

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The war in numbers

Russian central back assets frozen by Europe

$200bn

The EU wants to use these funds to fund aid for Ukraine

Artillery shells fired by Ukraine per day

7,000

Twice as many as Ukraine used at the start of the war

EU funding cut to some states if Ukraine joins

20%

Estonia said it would be willing to lose some funding to help Ukraine

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QA note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

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Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• The Russian army launched an offensive across the entire front line, with the fiercest clashes centred in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. More below.
• Volodymyr Zelensky has said he’ll run for a second presidential term if there is an election in wartime. However, if the war ends, he will not.
• Almost 64 per cent of Ukrainians are against holding an election before the war ends, while 15 per cent are in favour, the Razumkov Centre survey shows. 
• The Ukrainian parliament may soon vote on a bill that could ban the Russia-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church. The proposed bill also looks to prohibit any religious organisations justifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s National Police is investigating 54 cases of sexual violence against Ukrainians involving Russian soldiers. Some of the victims were reportedly children, including a four-year-old.
• Zelensky signed a law to resume asset declarations for officials and immediately make them publicly accessible. The system of compulsory asset declarations was originally instituted as part of the country’s fight against corruption following the 2014 Maidan Revolution.
• US senators remain positive that a $50-100 billion aid package for Ukraine can be passed next month. This package will help to carry Ukraine through the next US election.
• The UK has announced a new £100 million military aid package for Ukraine, including funding for a MSI-DS Terrahawk Paladin, an air-defence system which can track and destroy drones.
• Estonia is ready to lose access to EU cohesion funds if it means Ukraine becoming a member state, the country’s prime minister said.
• Belgium will provide Ukraine with several F-16 fighter jets starting from 2025 and will transfer €1.7 billion of taxes from frozen Russian assets.
• Russia has failed to regain its seat on the UN Human Rights Council for the 2024-2026 term.

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Wider reading on the war

America’s support for Israel must not come at the price of backing Ukraine – Dalibor Rohac (The Spectator)

Is Russia involved in Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel? – Anastasiia Lapatina (Kyiv Independent)

As Ukraine war fatigue seeps in, what lessons is China drawing? – Gabriel Dominguez (New York Times)

The dead villages: Hope and despair side-by-side in the liberated south – Francis Farrell (Kyiv Independent)

We need to reframe the debate over Ukraine – P. Michael McKinley (Politico)