By Svitlana Moronets

May 2, 2025

The analysis

Is Trump walking away?

The US government appears to be stepping back from its role as a mediator in the war. This week, Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokeswoman, said the ‘whole globe’ demands Donald Trump’s attention, so it is up to Ukraine and Russia to develop their own solutions. This was followed by J.D. Vance, who praised Trump for forcing both sides to outline their terms but said the US President’s job is nearly complete. ‘Now it’s up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict,’ the Vice-President said.

After 100 days in office, Trump has achieved nothing in resolving the conflict. Russia and Ukraine knew each other’s demands at the start of the full-scale invasion. Of course some details have changed slightly with battlefield losses and gains, but the fundamental demands haven’t wavered. Trump’s achievement as mediator amounts to little more than rediscovering the obvious: Kyiv and Moscow are miles apart, just as they were before he returned to office. Vladimir Putin still demands control of four Ukrainian regions that Russia doesn’t fully occupy; Volodymyr Zelensky continues to reject it. Russia wants a puppet government in Kyiv; Ukraine wants to remain an independent democratic state.

Nothing has moved – except for two short-term truces announced by Putin. The 30-hour Easter ceasefire collapsed within hours. The 70-hour Victory Day truce will likely have the same fate. The offer was instantly dismissed by Zelensky, who called it ‘another attempt at manipulation… just to provide Putin with silence for his parade’. The Kremlin has been rehearsing its military parade on Moscow’s Red Square. Were Ukrainian drones to ruin Russia’s most sacred day, the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, it would be a humiliation like no other.

We don’t yet know whether Zelensky will reject Putin’s three-day ceasefire proposal. The Ukrainian President faces a tough choice. On the one hand, striking Putin’s parade could hand Russia a propaganda win, allowing it to blame Kyiv for sabotaging Trump’s peace efforts. On the other, hitting Moscow would boost morale in Ukraine and answer the public demand for revenge after Russian missile strikes killed dozens of civilians in Kyiv, Sumy and Kryvyi Rih in recent weeks. If Trump is truly walking away from the talks after failing to achieve anything, then Zelensky’s choice is a no-brainer.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State, stated today that Trump will soon have to decide how much more time the administration should devote to the war, ‘especially if one or both sides are not getting any closer’. How Russia is supposed to ‘get closer’ to a full ceasefire without any pressure on Putin remains unclear – but that’s Trump’s ‘art of the deal’. Zelensky should keep hitting Putin where it hurts. Until the Russian leader realises that continuing the war will cost more than his regime can afford, peace will remain unachievable. If Ukrainians wanted to capitulate to the Russian dictator, they would have done so a long time ago, with or without Trump.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• The US and Ukraine signed a minerals deal to create a joint investment fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
• Volodymyr Zelensky attacked Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day truce offer and urged more international pressure on Russia to achieve a ceasefire.
• Serhii Sternenko, a Ukrainian activist who is well-known for crowdfunding money for drones, was wounded in assassination attempt. The shooter was detained.
• Trump plans to sell $50m worth of military equipment to Ukraine for the first time since he took office.
• Some 89% of Ukrainians do not trust Trump, according to a New Europe Center poll.
• Zelensky warned that Russia may launch a summer offensive under the cover of joint exercises with Belarus.
• Eastern villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region are evacuating families with children as Russian forces close in.
• North Korea confirmed it has deployed troops to fight alongside Russia in the Kursk region.
• Zelensky sanctioned Oleksiy Arestovych, a former freelance adviser, for spreading Kremlin narratives.
• Putin is reportedly demanding control of four Ukrainian regions that Russia does not fully occupy as part of any peace deal.
• The EU may decouple Moldova’s accession from Ukraine’s due to Hungary’s opposition to Kyiv’s entry.
• Australia’s planned transfer of retired Abrams tanks to Ukraine has stalled due to US resistance.

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Wider reading on the war

Putin is terrified Ukraine will sabotage Russia’s Victory Day – The Spectator

What does Putin want? Whatever he can get away with – The Spectator

Russia’s ‘ghost detainees’: The investigation that cost Viktoriia Roshchyna her life – Forbidden Stories

The Russian military moves that have Europe on edge –  Wall Street Journal

Europe ‘would struggle to put 25,000 troops on the ground in Ukraine’ – Times

In pictures

Somewhere in Russia: A group of North Korean soldiers, dressed in Russian military gear, training to fight against Ukraine. They were shown for the first time on Russian state media. (Screenshot from a TASS state news agency)

Quote of the week

‘If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately. Why wait until 8 May? If the fire can be ceased now and since any date for 30 days – so it is real, not just for a parade.’

– Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, reacted to Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a temporary truce on Victory Day.

The war in numbers

US Senators who back ‘bone-crushing’ sanctions on Russia

72 out of 100

According to Republican Senator Lindsay Graham

Ukraine’s state-owned defence company Ukroboronprom production increase

300%

It’s the fastest growing of the world’s top 100 defence manufacturers

Frozen Russian assets to be redistributed by Euroclear

€3bn

The funds will compensate companies whose assets were seized by Moscow

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk