04/23/2026

The political power of US President 
Donald Trump is increasingly facing 
the paradox of his own strategy : the louder the threats, the weaker the effect. The world, which a year ago was trying to adapt to the impulsive style of the White House, has gradually adapted to Trump’s main rule – 
he rarely brings things to an effective end. It was this realization that became the turning point. Iran openly ignores his deadlines, China uses the chaos of decisions to strengthen its global influence, and US allies no longer mask their irritation and begin to act autonomously.

The continuation of the “truce” with Iran in a de facto unilateral manner has only reinforced this impression: Trump’s ultimatums increasingly look like an element of political theater, rather than a real tool of pressure. The situation is similar with the sanctions policy against Russia – loud statements are replaced by backstage kickbacks, which undermines trust even among partners. As a result, a new reality is forming: global players are no longer afraid of escalation from the US, because they do not believe in its completion.

This is already noticeable in Ukrainian rhetoric. President Volodymyr Zelensky is effectively abandoning the diplomatic game of personal sympathy for Trump and moving on to a direct definition: he is not a guarantor of peace. Europe is simultaneously reducing its dependence on the US, and new economic and security alliances are being formed without regard to Washington.

Thus, Trump’s main problem today is not the resistance of his opponents, but the loss of fear of him. And in international politics, this means the loss of a key tool of influence.

Ukrainian diplomat and politician Roman Bezsmertny shared his thoughts on these and other issues in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.

– The stubbornness of Iran, which refused to go to Pakistan for talks with the US without fulfilling its “input” demands, led to Trump unilaterally extending the “ceasefire”. What are the reasons for this? Why does the US president not continue the military operation to force, as he says, the government, which has already split into parts? Perhaps this is due to the fact that April 28 will mark 60 days since the start of the conflict, and after that it is necessary to obtain permission from Congress to continue this military operation?

– There are several components here that influence the fact that Trump is moving along a sinusoidal curve – and he has shown this for a long time. He does not have a deep understanding of the situation, so he is maneuvering, waiting for the development of events and stalling for time. There is a need to replenish arsenals. I would draw attention to the information from Israel about the problems associated with a long-term military operation and the shortage of certain components. At the same time, one cannot unconditionally trust Donald Trump as to whether these resources are in the USA. At this stage, a serious shortage is observed precisely in Israel – this is the key to the answer.

Trump is forced to play a difficult game – he imitates threats, then retreats, giving Iran the opportunity to move in a certain direction. Iran figured out this maneuver after the first meeting – they realized that Trump was compensating for weakness with information pressure, because: a – the operation was not properly prepared, b – he abruptly interrupted Israel’s actions.

And the third is the internal situation in the US: the protest against him is growing both in Congress and outside it, including the Republican Party. He has several options for action: either to negotiate with Congress and move in two directions in parallel – both voting and dialogue. Or to limit himself to diplomacy. Trump sincerely wants a deal, but he does not have mechanisms for pressure, because he is not sure of the support of Congress, and Iran does not enter into dialogue. Iran will drag out the process so that Trump enters into a formal conflict with Congress due to the lack of a solution.

Is Iran capable of active military action? No – it will not do so at the moment. Iran is forming a narrative that it “won” because it thwarted the plans of Israel and the US. This thesis is actively imposed on society. More broadly – Trump has fallen not only into Iran’s trap, but also into Russia’s trap. Moscow and Beijing are behind Iran’s actions. The situation can no longer be viewed only as a confrontation between Tehran and Washington – it is a broader geopolitical clash.

– By the way, regarding China, do you think that one of the results of the “ sine curve ” of Trump’s policy will be that China will gradually replace the US as a global regulator, appearing to be a more stable and sensible partner? Right now, Chinese diplomacy has become very active in the European direction. The same Italy, which Trump attacked both through the Pope and through Malone, has received certain proposals.

– China is really trying to position itself as a global arbiter through information. But this is impossible, because it remains an ideologically rigid state.

– Can China transform?

– No – on the contrary, Xi Jinping is moving away from the reform policy and strengthening the centralized model. He acts as a classic authoritarian leader. Last week, representatives of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar visited China. Xi Jinping is promoting the idea of ​​open trade routes. This is perceived as a claim to a greater role in the world. But China does not have the resources for this: the economy is unstable, the financial system is limited, the yuan is not a global reserve currency, and its military potential is overestimated.

China’s strategy is to wait and seize opportunities without openly engaging in conflict. But there is an important “but”: China is actively cooperating with Russia. It is increasing aid to Iran and supporting the Russian economy and military-industrial complex. This means that it is not a neutral player. Despite the dialogue with Europe, China remains in this axis and does not plan to leave it.

– So, in short, to summarize, is this possible vote in Congress a trap for Trump and he will not be able to avoid problems?

– Of course, there will be problems – and very big ones – I do not believe that Congress will vote in the current situation. It needs solutions that could justify such steps. And there are none – there is only one option that allows the situation to move forward – and that is the role of Israel. And if it enters into a dialogue with Congress – the issue can be resolved.

– But will Trump, who ignores any foreign aid, allow this?

– Yes, he overestimates his own strength – that’s why relations with Congress are only getting more complicated. There are enough people in Congress who understand what Iran is and why the situation will hit Israel the hardest – and Trump doesn’t understand this. He perceives Congress as a burden – as well as Europe – although they are the ones who can help. He behaves like a technically weak boxer – he has closed in on the defense, he is being beaten from all sides, and he also pushes away those who are trying to help. The problem is largely in his lack of understanding of the situation – there are no people around who can tell him to act openly. He conducts politics chaotically – often through nightly statements that contradict each other. Therefore, he will have serious problems.

In general, American analysts speak of two scenarios for the development of events regarding Iran: option A – dragging it into a new “Vietnam”, option B – accepting Iran’s conditions. But then the question of supporting Israel arises. As a result, Trump is now in a trap – he is stalling for time, without a clear strategy. And in 2-3 months the situation will begin to control him, and not vice versa.

– You mentioned that Russia is helping Iran – that’s obvious. On the other hand, Trump is actually helping Russia – we see the sanctions easing continuing. On the eve of this decision, you said that there would be no extension because Trump did not receive the earnings from Russian oil that he was counting on. What has changed?

– Pay attention – then we talked about the stay of Putin’s special representative – Dmitriev in the USA – he brought a new mechanism for earning money from oil. It is obvious that Trump’s interest outweighed even the government’s position. US Treasury Secretary Bessent voiced things that were not agreed upon – that is, this was not the final position of the administration. In fact, this is the result of Dmitriev’s work together with Witkoff – and when the process was already launched, the decision had to be changed. It is significant that after that Bessent avoided comments – because it was difficult to explain the situation. This is a direct consequence of the backroom negotiation process in Washington.

– If we turn to Ukraine, we see a change in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s rhetoric towards Trump – from positive assessments to open criticism. What does this mean – a diplomatic mistake or a real change in approach that is long overdue?

– The change did not occur in Ukraine’s position – it occurred due to a change in external circumstances. After Orban’s failure in Hungary, Ukraine began active agreements with Europe – agreements worth tens of billions were signed. France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy – as well as the Gulf countries – began to support Ukraine more actively. In fact, the situation changed after Trump fell into the geopolitical trap created by Moscow, Beijing and Tehran. And at this moment, Ukraine’s position sharply strengthened. Trump announces a possible exit from Europe – and then Ukraine becomes a key security factor. He fails in the Middle East – and Ukraine becomes an important partner for the oil monarchies. Orban suffers a political defeat – again on the Ukrainian issue. At the same time, interest in Ukrainian technologies is growing – both from Europe and even in the USA

Against this background, Trump is in conflict with his allies. As a result, Ukraine is gaining more opportunities – and this explains Zelensky’s change in rhetoric. But there is a risk here – it is important that success does not lead to an overestimation of one’s own capabilities, even if the crown does not grow on Zelensky’s head. Because here such a thing is also possible.

– That is, there is a risk of going too far…

– Absolutely right. The current situation here is very peculiar, and it should be treated more gently, with the understanding that now we will have to work with Magyar as well. We will have to build relations with Rumen Radev. It will be necessary to seek contacts with Fico, at least some, because there are still considerable contracts there. The contracts with Radev are no less, because the military sphere also needs to be built. I am convinced that the Bulgarians will not cancel them, because this is a very significant income for the Bulgarian budget. But a lot is said. Therefore, in this regard, the situation is actually quite unpleasant for the military-political leadership of Ukraine. And now we must hope that it will be disposed of properly.

– Can we say that the US role in resolving the war in Ukraine is narrowing and becoming less large-scale?

– I am convinced that the role of the United States in all processes will decrease. And this, in my opinion, is unfortunate. Both for us, for the US, and for the world in general. We have an advantage – Europe is with us. And here the situation is this: the combination of Europe and Ukraine is the most dangerous for Russia. Pay attention to what is happening in the agreements – for the first time, supplies of missiles for Patriot systems have appeared. Previously, this was not discussed at all. But agreements have already been signed even with several countries. And this suggests that America is America, but Europe is gradually taking it upon itself.

Macron’s move, when a week before the elections in Hungary he met with Zelensky and signed a list of documents, shows that he understands the situation well. And when he, together with Starmer, gathered 50 countries, this is actually a “Rammstein” format, if you look at the list. If the classic “Rammstein” is led by defense ministers, then this conditional “Rammstein-2” is led by political leaders – Starmer and Macron.

The world needs a new model of global security. Perhaps even without a formal charter, but we can’t do without it. If Trump had adequate advisers, there would be no point in pushing Macron away. He offered help. And in return he was refused.

– This is Trump’s style. He only recognizes big powers – such as Russia and China – as his equals.

– He can believe anything. But the development of events is such that he may suffer for it. And the problem is not even only in him. The question is in the USA. Why should the country bear the consequences of such leadership? In the current situation, a person should appear next to Trump who will say: let’s work with NATO, with Europe, with Ukraine, with Israel. And not push everyone away, demonstrating strength where it is no longer seen.

– It turns out that Trump is creating problems, and the United States will pay for everything…

– Trump doesn’t care – he changes positions quickly. The problem is that his actions do have consequences for the US.

– Don’t you think that in recent weeks, Trump has become less feared and less accepted? Iran is refusing to negotiate, Hungarians are voting significantly the opposite, Ukraine is changing its rhetoric, Europe is starting to defend its own interests more actively, and there are also problems within the US. Is this really a trend? And how is it dangerous?

– Elections are approaching, which could mark the beginning of the end for Donald Trump. Whether this will immediately lead to impeachment or there will be a pause – we will see. But preparations are already underway. There is a bill with 13 charges, and they are seriously substantiated. After the elections, the House of Representatives may launch the process. In the Senate, everything will depend on the number of votes. It is possible that this could end in removal from office.

Secondly, the economic situation may worsen. The rise in fuel prices is already noticeable, and this creates tension in society. Thirdly, the world is looking for new economic balances. If solutions are found without Trump’s participation, he will have to accept them. A possible option is when China puts pressure on Russia, Europe seeks compromises, and a new configuration is formed without the active role of the United States. Therefore, the situation is multifactorial. But one thing is obvious – Trump’s influence is gradually weakening.

– So, has the fear of Trump in the world finally disappeared? Because a year ago, when he came to the White House, we saw a video from the Oval Office – when Zelensky, European and other world leaders came to him – they were literally sitting on the edge of their seats, afraid of being interrupted, agreeing with his words. Now everything has changed radically.

– Not only are they not afraid of him, Mr. Roman, they are already laughing at him. And here the question is how to deal with him further. He could have been “saved” 25 years ago, if he had known how to listen and ask for help. In the current situation, when he is again talking about the “paper tiger” and other things, everyone is becoming indifferent. And the question is no longer only about him, but about what will happen to America.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/nastane-kolaps-stupak-poyasniv-chomu-totalna-mobilizatsiya-v-rosii-e-malojmovirnoyu.htm