Every word out of Putin’s mouth is a lie
BEN HODGES. FORMER COMMANDER, US ARMY EUROPE
8 June 2023 •
Fighting is intensifying all along the Ukrainian battle front, from the Russian border province of Belgorod all the way to the Black Sea coast. These are the “shaping” operations, necessary precursors to the imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive, intended to confuse the Russian general staff as to the specific date, time and place of the main attack.
Once the Ukrainian armoured brigades are fully committed, we can say that the fight is truly on. However the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be very disciplined regarding the release of information, and I would not trust any report coming from the Russian side about what’s happening on the line of contact.
I would hope that we, and the Russian staff, will not know what Zelensky and the Ukrainians are doing until they have already done it.
In the meantime we know the Russians have blown the Khakova Dam. It doesn’t matter that Putin has blamed the Ukrainians and described the dam’s destruction as a “barbaric act”: every word out of his mouth is a lie. The dam was clearly demolished using internal explosives, not struck by a weapon, and it was under Russian control. Furthermore there is no advantage in blowing the dam for the Ukrainians: this is a colossal economic and ecological disaster for their country and they will be dealing with the damage for a long time to come.
Even the Russians will probably not gain as much military benefit as they might hope. Some experts think the floodwaters will subside within the next five to seven days and the ground there will begin to dry rapidly in the summer heat. The effect hoped for by the Russians, that of restricting the Ukrainians’ manoeuvre options, is likely to be short lived. In my judgement the Russians panicked here and blew the dam too early to get the desired effect.
What the dam demolition has accomplished is to remind us, yet again, of who the Russians are. It is a typical “blunt instrument” act: it has visited enormous destruction and suffering on innocent civilians, and as such is a war crime. It demonstrates, yet again, that the West should not press Zelensky to negotiate with the Kremlin until Ukraine has achieved all its war aims.
Those achievements may soon be appreciably closer. If the current probes permit the Ukrainians to identify a weak spot, we can expect that vulnerability to be struck hard and fast. Last year the Ukrainians demonstrated that they have excellent tactical flexibility: this is because they have adopted a Western style command structure in which lower-level commanders can take the initiative and exploit opportunities. It may not be the Ukrainian general staff who actually trigger the decisive move, but a relatively junior armour officer who recognizes the opportunity and takes it, and the next level commander who chooses to reinforce that success.
The Russians have built hundreds of miles of trenches with bunkers, minefields, anti-tank ditches and “Dragons Teeth” obstacle belts. But these defences are only as good as the soldiers occupying those trenches and covering those obstacles. I haven’t been impressed with the fighting capabilities of the Russians in most places, and the vicious infighting we see between the various Russian leaders highlights the lack of cohesion on the Russian side. The Ukrainians will seek to exploit these divisions.
Once the Ukrainians have punched through the line and are in the Russians’ rear, there will be a powerful psychological effect. The aim is to try to bring about a collapse, which should be very achievable given the poor state of Russian morale. If this happens a major change in the battle front can take place.
My assumption is that the Ukrainians’ operational aim is to isolate Crimea. If they can reach the Azov Sea, anywhere between say Mariupol and Melitopol, they will be able to make the Russian position in Crimea untenable. There will also be a secondary aim of securing the area around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear powerplant.
If the Ukrainians can isolate Crimea, I would guess that to begin with the Kerch bridges will be left standing, though they could probably be struck by UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles or other weapons in that scenario: and indeed Ukraine has managed to strike those bridges once already. Leaving the bridges up would give the Russian occupiers an avenue of retreat, which they would hopefully make use of.
That said, at some point those bridges are coming down. The Ukrainians’ strategic objective is to regain Crimea, and if they can do that by a Russian withdrawal without firing a shot, so much the better. But if they have to kill or capture every Russian on the peninsula, they will.
Regaining Crimea is critical for the Ukrainians, as it pushes the Russian navy out of the central and western Black Sea, opening up access from Odesa to the world’s ocean trade routes again. Russia would still menace the Azov and its ports, but it would no longer be in total control. The Russian fleet would have to withdraw from the Sevastopol naval base to the less capable port of Novorossiysk. Indeed, many of its smaller vessels would probably have to be redeployed to the Caspian Sea via inland waterways.
Make no mistake: if there is to be any hope of eventual Ukrainian economic recovery, so that the nation’s refugees can return home and Eastern Europe can return to normal, Russian control of the Black Sea must end. That means that Putin must give up Crimea. Anything else is a victory for him and a defeat for Ukraine and for the West.
There’s another important thing for Western observers to remember. I am personally deeply impressed by the Ukrainian commanders’ abilities in the field of operational art, and their disciplined approach to warfare. They are committed to achieving their goals but they will not waste the lives of their soldiers to no purpose. We will know the fight is on once the heavy armoured formations are committed: but if they don’t perceive the right opportunity that may not happen soon, despite the impatience being exhibited both inside and outside Ukraine right now.
Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges served as commanding general, Unites States Army Europe. Previously he was a brigade commander during the 2003 invasion of Iraq
Also in the latest version of the DT site: a change of direction from top nazi succubus Simonyan:
Putin should freeze war as Ukraine ‘too strong’, says top Russian propagandist
Zelensky’s access to Nato-supplied weaponry means halting hostilities while referenda are held would be ‘best case scenario for Russia’
By
Nataliya Vasilyeva,
RUSSIA CORRESPONDENT
8 June 2023 •
The head of Russian state TV network RT and one of Vladimir Putin’s top propagandists has suggested Moscow should freeze the war in the face of state-of-the-art Western weaponry that Ukraine now holds.
Margarita Simonyan, who has regularly called for all-out war on Ukraine, argued on prime-time television in favour of a negotiated solution and a halt to hostilities while referenda are organised in Russian-occupied territory.
She presented her U-turn as a best-case scenario now that Ukraine has access to Nato-supplied weapons now being used on Russia soil and in the counter offensive.
“I’ve been talking about this for the whole year. It would be so good to stop the bloodshed right now, stay where we are, freeze it and hold referenda,” she said on Vladimir Solovyev’s prime-time talk show on Rossiya 1.
“Do we need territories where people don’t want to live with us? I’m not sure.”
Calls for resignation
Her suggestions, especially remarks about “disputed territories” in Ukraine, caused a backlash at home while some of Russia’s loudest mouthpieces of the war accused her of crossing Vladimir Putin who “officially” recognised the occupied areas as part of Russia last year.
“Did Simonyan get a new boss now? Who is paying her? A referendum on Russia’s territories that she calls ‘disputed’ would be a Godsend for Western strategists,” Roman Alekhin, a Russian military volunteer and writer, wrote in a column for Tsargrad TV on Wednesday.
Lesser known pro-war bloggers called for her resignation while Igor Girkin, a former Ukrainian separatist commander accused Ms Simonyan, an ethnic Armenian, of first betraying Armenia’s national interests by supporting a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia over a breakaway region, and now trying to do the same for Russia: “We will figure things out for Russians and Russia without you.”
The surprising remarks by a long-time trusted member of the Russian political establishment do reflect views of some of the Russian establishment but it does not necessarily mean Moscow is going to call it quits here and now.
“Simonyan in her statement tries to say it makes no sense to wage war much longer, let things be as they are and revisit them later,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a long-time Kremlin watcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, said.
It can also be a Kremlin-inspired attempt to gauge public opinion while widespread censorship is keeping the Russian leadership itself in the dark about what Russians really think.
“Simonyan’s time-to-talk argument may yet prove to have legs – but it won’t grow those legs until it has proved its worth to the propaganda machinery itself, and ultimately to the Kremlin,” Sam Greene, a Russian politics professor at King’s College London, tweeted.
Russian nuclear strike on cards
Regarded as one of Russia’s best-known hawks, Ms Simonyan was calling on the Kremlin to annex eastern Ukraine months before the war began, and just weeks before the invasion she was publicly grilling Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister: “When are we finally going to whack Washington?”
When Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine last February, the media executive said she was “genuinely happy” and “overwhelmed with euphoria”.
As Russian troops got bogged down in fighting last spring, Ms Simonyan said she didn’t see Russia “just giving up and going” and that a Russian nuclear strike was on the cards.
Recently, she has been saying that neither she nor anyone in the Russian establishment are “enjoying” bombing Ukrainian cities but insisted it had to be done to topple the Kyiv government.
When a Russian cruise missile hit the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia last summer, killing a young mother and her daughter, she insisted the Russians were targeting “Nazis”.
“Every word out of Putin’s mouth is a lie”
Ditto for his various ass givers in the mafia “government”, generals, propagandists on mafia TV, and his lapdogs in the West.