2.08.2025
By carrying out massive strikes on legitimate military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian side is demonstrating the possibility of scaling up aircraft-type strike drones.
Currently, Ukraine is changing the priority of strikes on Russia and is now targeting military-industrial and defense plants, in particular those that produce Shahed attack drones.
Currently, the occupying country has significantly scaled up the production of these drones and increased the number of launch pads. The enemy is trying to increase the number of weapons per settlement and per specific target.
Therefore, the main goal of changing the strikes is to make mass production of UAVs impossible.
Today, the strikes are primarily aimed at enterprises engaged in the production of drones, both strike and reconnaissance. This is part of a large-scale campaign aimed at disrupting the expansion of Russian drone production. This is critically important, given the reports of Russian media and Western analysts: Russia is potentially capable of launching from 500 to 1,000 drones per day. In conditions when Ukraine is only creating its own echeloned air defense system, such a number threatens to collapse.
The production of interceptor drones in Ukraine has only been announced. And the cheapness of Russian UAVs combined with the high cost of their interception means creates an unacceptable imbalance. Therefore, strikes on the production infrastructure are a preventive measure that allows you to contain the threat at the very beginning.
The strikes are targeting enterprises that produce both Geran-2, Geran-3, and UAVs using fiber optics. Fiber-optic drones are one of the Russians’ advantages, which has become a serious challenge for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The change in tactics is quite logical: to strike at production, not at the final product. Examples: the Alabuga free economic zone is one of the main places for UAV production, where several sensitive strikes have already been inflicted by GUR drones.
Similarly, drones of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the Ministry of Defense’s GUR struck the enterprises of the Kronstadt company in the Moscow region, which also produces UAVs. Russia was forced to admit damage to production facilities and even a partial shutdown of the enterprise. A plant in Saransk that produces fiber optics was also hit, the only one of its kind in the Russian Federation. This fiber optics is used in FPV drones. In response, the Russians are already looking for the possibility of placing such production facilities in China to protect them from Ukrainian attacks.
It is worth mentioning separately the attacks on enterprises that produce batteries for UAVs – this is another key link in the technological chain of drone production.
Factories that produce means to counter Ukrainian electronic warfare were also attacked.
Currently, the occupiers have begun using navigation systems that are more protected from interference, such as the multi-element antenna of the “Kometa-M” type. This is a phased array antenna that demonstrates quite high capabilities in countering electronic warfare and allows UAVs to be guided using a satellite system. Russia has already reached the point of using the 12-element “Kometa-M” antenna on these UAVs.
Until recently, up to 40% of Russian drones were stopped from functioning precisely because of Ukrainian electronic warfare. The Russians took this into account and began to modify their UAVs, changing their characteristics to reduce their vulnerability to electronic warfare and mobile fire groups.
Military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleg Zhdanov noted that currently the Russian “Shakheds” are mainly flying to the detriment of the Ukrainian air defense system – they have begun to circle more, maneuver, and change flight altitude, which makes it difficult to detect and shoot down them.
Until recently, mobile groups effectively resisted attacks by enemy drones, but now UAVs have begun to attack from heights unattainable for them. According to Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, the enemy has raised their flight altitude to a level at which it is already very difficult to shoot them down with machine gun weapons. Because of this, mobile fire groups have largely lost their effectiveness. In particular, the machine gun itself, with which they worked, has become less effective.
This has reduced the effectiveness of such groups and has become a serious challenge. Statistics from the General Staff confirm that the number of drones reaching targets is increasing. All this has forced the GUR of the Ministry of Defense and the Defense Forces of Ukraine to change tactics and prioritize strikes on enterprises on Russian territory.
Let me remind you that the British Ministry of Defense recently published a summary on Twitter that the occupying country, after three years of war against Ukraine, is unable to protect its strategic military facilities. This is evidenced by numerous Ukrainian attacks.
According to British intelligence, Ukraine has been successfully using drones against military targets and infrastructure in Russia with increasing regularity, including numerous strikes on Russian oil refineries.
It is worth noting that no one stopped the attacks on the oil refinery: recently an oil depot in the Stavropol Territory was on fire. Ukrainian drones attacked a local oil depot belonging to the Lukoil company. The head of the Sirius federal territory, Dmitry Plyshkin, confirmed that an oil depot in the Adler district of Sochi was under attack by drones. He noted that the hit occurred at the enterprise on Tavriyskaya Street.
Earlier, Russian media reported that explosions occurred near an oil refinery in Oryol, Russia, on the night of June 16. Local residents reported a drone attack.
This is clear evidence that attacks on oil refining infrastructure are continuing.
“Such successes by Ukraine highlight Russia’s continued failure to protect strategic military facilities from attack, and also point to the challenge Russia faces in trying to balance the protection of its infrastructure with the protection of its frontline operations,” the British intelligence summary said.
I would like to note that the strikes are being carried out on several entities on the territory of the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation, regardless of the final outcome of the attacks by Ukrainian UAVs, is forced to introduce the so-called “Carpet” plan, to close the airspace on the territory of the country. And these are colossal losses for the Russian economy. In terms of the cost of the Ukrainian UAV and the losses of the Russian economy, these are incommensurable figures.
According to the Russians themselves, the economic losses of the Russian Federation in just one wave of attacks amounted to 20 billion rubles. In July, losses from blocked airports amounted to up to 40 billion rubles.
Even if Ukrainian drones do not hit their target, they still force the Russians to bear certain losses and this is already having an effect, even Russian TV channels admit this. Moreover, they voice versions that Zelensky is putting pressure on Russia with strikes to force Putin to withdraw troops from the Kharkiv region.
If even conspiracy theorists recognize the effectiveness of this tactic, it means it is painful for the Russian Federation. According to Russian sources, Sheremetyevo Airport is on the verge of bankruptcy. After the transport collapse, Transport Minister Roman Starovoit resigned and soon committed suicide. This indicates the extraordinary effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics — it works, disrupts logistics, the economy, and causes personnel crises in the Russian Federation.
And I am more than confident that the Ukrainian side will continue this tactic in the future.
That is, we are not talking about demonstration actions, that is, demonstrations of capabilities, but about the planned, consistent nature of the operations of the Ukrainian intelligence community. It is noteworthy that the distance from the targets to the Russian-Ukrainian border is increasing. Currently, it is over 2,000 kilometers.
It is indicative that Ukrainian military intelligence and the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue the pattern of intensive strikes on the rear infrastructure of the Russian military-industrial complex and military facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation, which are legitimate targets of the Ukrainian side.
Let me remind you that units of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense carried out successful attacks on enterprises of the military-industrial complex of the occupying country.
With proper support from its allies, Ukraine could strike all relevant targets in the mafia state; oil depots and refineries, arms industries, infrastructure, bases, command posts, ammo depots, shopping malls, schools, hospitals, and the kremlin.