After eight days, the fighting in Kursk Oblast shows no sign of slowing.
Aug 14, 2024
95th Air Assault Brigade
As Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast barrels into its eighth day, elements of two more Ukrainian air assault brigades—the 82nd and 95th—have joined the fray.
Troopers from the 95th Air Assault Brigade were photographed on their way to the battle zone. Tragically, Russian forces confirmed the presence of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade when they ambushed and killed some of the unit’s troops on the outer edge of the chaotic fight in Kursk.
With the air assault reinforcements, the Ukrainian invasion corps now includes some or all of six front-line brigades plus two independent battalions and supporting drone, artillery, reconnaissance and special forces units. Possibly close to 15,000 troops in all.
The extra troops could prolong Ukrainian advances into Kursk Oblast even as more Russian troops reach the front. But it’s worth noting that many of the brigades and battalions Ukrainian commanders are sending into the 400-square-mile Kursk salient are coming from other sectors of Russia’s 29-month wider war on Ukraine—including some of the most active sectors.
That Ukrainian commanders are willing to weaken their defenses in places such as the eastern towns of Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar in order to strengthen their attacks in Kursk speaks to their priorities—and their appetite for risk.
“Given that Ukraine has pulled units from the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar fronts—the most difficult parts of the front line—it is pretty clear that Ukraine is not pursuing limited objectives in its Kursk operation,” explained Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.
It’s still not totally clear what all those objectives are. But given that Ukrainian officials are already talking about setting up a government administration to oversee the occupied portions of Kursk Oblast, it’s evident the objectives include a long-term Ukrainian presence in the oblast—if Ukrainian forces can hold the terrain they’ve captured.
The Russians are fighting back with elements of at least nine motor rifle, air assault, marine and arctic regiments and brigades—potentially matching or exceeding the strength of the Ukrainian invasion corps.
Notably, the Russian military isn’t dialing back its offensive in eastern Ukraine, even as it reinforces its defensive efforts in southern Russia. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies has observed fresh Russian assaults near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Along the edge of the battle in Kursk, the fighting is close and messy. “The front line is fluid, with small groups of Ukrainian and Russian troops roaming the heavily forested countryside,” observed Yaroslav Trofimov, a correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
Losses are mounting. On the ground, the Ukrainians have captured scores of bewildered Russians, while the Russians have ambushed several Ukrainian assault groups, killing potentially tens of Ukrainian troops.
In the air, the Russians have reportedly lost several helicopters and a Sukhoi fighter-bomber. The Ukrainians lost a MiG fighter and its pilot Alexander Migulya, although it’s not exactly clear where.
As the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk enters its second week, the outcome balances on the razor’s edge as more troops from both sides reach the salient—and Ukrainian commanders take a calculated risk along other sectors.
At the moment, and despite its losses, the Ukrainian invasion corps may still have the momentum. “The Russian military command on the Kursk direction will have to quickly deploy a second echelon of additional troops and assets (reserves),” CDS projected, “as the troops of its first echelon will not be able to stop the offensive.”
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Sources:
1. Julian Roepcke: https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1823662828168851820
2. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-140824
3. Rob Lee: https://x.com/RALee85/status/1823525662155796590
4. Yaroslav Trofimov: https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1823778871189164277
What David failed to mention is that the roaches are composed largely of inexperienced, raw, green, meat puppets who easily surrender or run away … trying to catch up with the Kadyrovites.
“That Ukrainian commanders are willing to weaken their defenses in places such as the eastern towns of Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar in order to strengthen their attacks in Kursk speaks to their priorities—and their appetite for risk.”
I know nothing about military strategy, but for me it is incomprehensible to see Ukraine “abandoning” regions of Ukraine and its inhabitants by betting on Kursk in medium term. Moreover, within a week the entire administrative and humanitarian burden of managing these areas under Ukrainian control will have to be assumed: management of civilians, supplies, infrastructure…
“Residents of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, urged to evacuate: Russian forces are only 10 km away”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/15/7470565/
I’m sure that all international organizations will gladly take over any humanitarian work that needs to be done in mafia land.
They will likely send civilians to Russia (with the fake calls) or send behind the lines in Ukraine. They won’t be collecting garbage and delivering mail for them, Dude. Emergency supplies for now until they send them one way or another. Your “concerns” are overstated imo. “Abandoning” is what Russia did, Comrade.
“Management of civilians” lol. Muscovites should be thankful UA doesn’t treat them like russian army did in bucha or irpin.
Indeed, if they have functional brains, they should think very hard about how things could be if the AFU were like their cockroach army.