07/28/2026
On July 24, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga held talks with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan regarding threats to civilian shipping due to Russian attacks. The parties discussed the possibilities of restoring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and risks to global food security.
Turkey is ready to guarantee post-war security of the Black Sea
In particular, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry emphasized that Turkey, as a country with a successful track record of peacekeeping efforts since 2022, can play an important role in restoring freedom of navigation. This becomes especially relevant against the backdrop of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian sea corridor during the harvest season, which poses risks to global food security.
Turkey was also thanked for its unwavering position in supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. In response, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that in the context of the issue of future security guarantees for Ukraine, Ankara agreed to lead the naval component of this work.
In particular, at a press conference in Kyiv, a Turkish diplomat emphasized: “One of the most important aspects of a potential peace agreement is currently being discussed – security guarantees for Ukraine. They include land, sea and air elements. Turkey has agreed to lead the naval component. We have a mutual understanding with our allies on this issue. Planned work on this issue with the relevant allied naval forces is also underway.”
It is worth noting that Turkey’s statements have become particularly relevant after the Turkish ship Golden Leo, which had previously suffered severe damage as a result of a Russian missile strike, recently sank off the coast of Odessa.
Turkey has regained its influence in the region thanks to Ukraine’s victories over the Russian Black Sea Fleet
Therefore, special attention should be paid to the political subtext of the statements that Turkey will provide future security guarantees for Ukraine in the Black Sea. In fact, these plans destroy the concept of Russian dominance in the region. Historically, the Turkish fleet has consistently lost to the Russian one in the Black Sea, however, today the situation has changed radically.
Without its own large fleet, Ukraine, using coastal missile systems, naval drones, UAVs, and aircraft, destroyed the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship and dozens of other ships, from large landing ships to patrol ships, including two submarines, as well as naval infrastructure on the shore: port facilities and the headquarters building of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Now Russian ships have been pushed out of Crimea to Novorossiysk and practically do not leave their bases, the Russian transport fleet is constantly subjected to Ukrainian air strikes. At the same time, Turkey did not make any special efforts for this, only in March 2022 it closed the straits to warships of all states under the Montreux Convention and does not make exceptions until now.
Turkey is pushing Russia out not only from the Black Sea, but also from the Caucasus
In addition, Turkey is actively expanding its economic presence in the Black Sea countries, as well as strengthening its positions in the Balkans and the Caucasus region. Even Armenia, Turkey’s historical opponent and Russia’s traditional ally in the Caucasus, is abandoning its military-political alliance with Moscow and preferring a European course, as our publication previously reported.
The reason for this was that the Kremlin’s influence in the Caucasus was based on the openness of the Russian market for goods from the Caucasian countries and on Moscow’s mediation in regional conflicts. After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia almost lost these factors, and Turkish influence came to their place. It is through Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia that the so-called “Middle Corridor” passes – the main commodity and logistics route from China to Europe, bypassing Russia, and Turkish investments and trade turnover with the Caucasian countries already exceed Russian indicators.
In addition, a route through Armenian Syunik to Azerbaijan is being prepared for implementation, thanks to which Turkey will receive direct land access to the Caspian Sea and further to Central Asia and China, which will significantly strengthen the independence of the Caucasus from Russian influence.
Thus, geography dictates Turkey’s leading role in the Black Sea and the Caucasus, as Ankara controls the only strait. Because of this, only Turkey can become the main guarantor of security in the Black Sea.
Only the combined military power of Ukraine and Turkey and the joint economic efforts of both countries will be able to seriously and permanently displace Russia from the Black Sea region.