Any settlement that doesn’t prevent another war from breaking out is useless

James Snell 23 April 2025 8:31am BST

It is in effect an instrument of surrender. This is what some Ukrainians are already saying about the American plans for a deal that would pause the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In the proposed seven-point deal, which is circulating widely – even though proposed negotiations in London today have been postponed after American envoys pulled out for transparently fanciful “logistical” reasons – Ukraine will lose access to all the land Russia currently occupies bar two small areas of the country currently under Russian control.

Ukraine will be barred from seeking membership of Nato – something that has been, if not exactly off the table, very widely agreed to be unlikely for several years.

America will also formally recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which has been a diplomatic fait accompli for a decade and which Ukraine could only have prevented by force of arms.

Ukraine will be left with none of the formal security guarantees it has asked for – as some kind of bulwark against the inevitable Russian re-fitting and re-arming, preparation for the inevitable third invasion of their country, which would surely be only a year or two away at most if a temporary cessation of hostilities could be agreed.

In effect, Ukraine would be left with what it has – and alone. This deal is the approach of the American administration in crystal: that because Ukraine is not wholly responsible for its own procurement and defence, it holds no cards, and every gesture it makes to defend its own territory is a fraudulent pretence.

President Donald Trump believes he can trade land for peace. In the furthest heights of international relations theory, that might be possible. But for this American administration, as it would have been for the previous one, that is not likely.

Trump thinks he can get the Ukrainians to trade land for peace. But if he does, they will end up with neither. Thus it seems unlikely Ukraine could agree to such a deal. A deal that would leave not only 20 per cent of its country under enemy occupation, with all that entails in torture chambers and summary executions, in stolen children and stolen futures – but also which would do nothing to prevent the next stage of the war from breaking out.

Russian newspapers over the past few days have talked about a coup in Kyiv. They’ve based this on nothing. But popular sentiment in Ukraine and, most notably, its armed services, cannot be discounted. Wars are difficult to stop because they take on their own momentum. Elements within the Ukrainian military would likely not accept a deal that left their country so obviously vulnerable.

If Trump wants to avoid instability, he will give those parts of the Ukrainian security state which will be inclined not to honour any deal he forces upon their president no excuses to carry on their own private war. But Trump is a fool. He wants to help Russia above all. He does not understand that what he is doing helps no one, not even himself. 

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James Snell is a former senior advisor for special initiatives at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. His first book, The Fall of the Assads, will be published this year

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Comment from :

Malcolm Angus

“Trump is a fool” is the understatement of the century. He is running around like a headless chicken causing total chaos in his wake, both financially and in his version of foreign affairs. It is amazing that an advanced country the size of the US cannot find capable people to fill the position of President.

Wayne Roberts

Burger eating surrender monkeys…

Peter Vincent

Absolutely right, there’s only one thing the Russian nation, under whatever guise recognises and that is strength. 

The only way to achieve a lasting peace is for Russia to be removed from all the land it illegally stole and for their ailing military to be finished off.

The author is right, Trump is a fool, a gullible fool. The Americans should supply everything Ukraine needs to smash the Russian invasion, starting with the Kirch bridge, which is an illegal structure.

Russia must be taught that aggression cannot pay. Biden was wrong about a lot of things, but he was on the money over Ukraine.

David Walker

It’s not just trading land for peace. It’s trading the people who live in that land, handing them to the barbarians and their ruling Kremlin tyrant

patrick carnan

So Russia illegally gets land it has taken by force ? USA gets minerals and other valuable assets from that country . So what does Ukraine get nothing ? What did those poor people die for ?we all know what happened throughout History where aggressors profit, but as usual nobody learns or takes heed from History.

John McKenna

As someone who will never seek a visa to visit the USA I can say that regarding Ukraine, Trump is the biggest fool of all the fools that voted for him. But worse he shows he is a genuine surrender monkey, giving away everything to the murderous dictator madman Putin.

David Walker

It’s not places that would be given away. It’s the people living there, handed over to the Kremlin tyrant and his barbarian, sub-human hordes.

MR R PATEL

Europe has the means to support ukraine without the US. Satellite comms, intelligence will be the main problems. This is why Europe needs it own infrastructure and military supplies outside us control.

Europe has the means to support ukraine without the US. Satellite comms, intelligence will be the main problems. This is why Europe needs it own infrastructure and military supplies outside us control

Richard Frost

I just hope Zelenskey refuses to sign up to this scandalous American surrender and that Europe and the West can step up support for Ukraine to replace the USA. Ukraine has in effect been fighting a surrogate war for the West, but with one hand tied behind its back. I suspect it would have beaten Putin otherwise. Trump’s presidency is a disaster.

Dario O’Grady

I am happy if starmer puts on another 2p in the £ tax and use that to support Ukraine, it actually wouldn’t take long for the russian front to collapse as they are on the verge of economic collapse, military collapse as they are using stolen cars and cheap chinese motorbikes to maintain attacks which are getting rubbed out like an ant by Ukrainian drones.

Suffolk Punch

Nicely summarised.

The Ukrainians are a tough bunch and Zelensky is no Quisling. 

I expect they’ll fight on. We should aid them as much as we can. The US may have abandoned all morality and common sense, but we should not.

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