The US president is not just picking off Chinese allies for sport – he’s working up to a deal with economic rival
Unlike previous American presidents, Donald Trump assesses problems as a businessman and reacts accordingly Credit: White House/Anadolu/Getty
John Hemmings
Published 15 March 2026
There’s a strong misconception in Europe that President Donald Trump prefers dictators and authoritarian powers over democratic allies. The fact is that he has just taken out a major Chinese ally (Venezuela), is in the process of taking out another (Iran), and is threatening to take out a third (Cuba).
As we think about the problem set that confronted the United States when he came into office, we see that he inherited a dwindling heavy-industry sector and a rigid US ideology about offering the world free markets, despite extremely unfavourable terms (US tariffs on EU cars were 2 per cent while EU tariffs on US autos were 11 per cent). He also inherited a rising rival in China, which seemed to be eating US manufacturing share every year while gaining dominance in global shipping and energy markets.
But unlike so many previous American presidents, Trump looks at these problems differently. He sees different problems – inherited from his years as a businessman – and he responds differently.
In The Art of the Deal, he advocates boldness against one’s adversaries, recommends aggression towards perceived unfair treatment and promotes maximum flexibility by pursuing multiple “deals” at once. He is a New York real estate mogul, perfectly attuned to a competitive system and thinks of the international rules-based system as red tape and regulation put in place to hold him down.
Trump’s ghost-written memoir was first published in 1987 and helped make him a household name Credit: Willows Images UK/Alamy
They’re screwing us over with unfair tariffs? Hit them with huge tariffs and then leverage their response to your advantage. Europeans “screwing us” over defence spending? OK, just threaten to leave Nato until they agree to pay more.
China is building a coalition of partners willing to side with it against America? Fine, take them out one by one. The pace of news is almost too much for us to register the systemic changes that he is effecting by his unorthodox style and communications strategy. Everyone is constantly guessing, and he is literally taking his opponents to pieces.
Take Venezuela: It has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. It accounts for up to 18 per cent of global reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Iran. When Trump came into office, the relationship was non-existent between the United States and Nicolas Maduro’s regime. On the day that US special forces went in to get the Venezuelan president, they knew he’d be in Caracas because of a visiting Chinese delegation which had brought him a $5bn (£3.8bn) cheque designed to boost his economy.
Trump got the cheque first. And he’s cashed it “indefinitely”. Maduro sits in an American jail cell, while the US is now importing Venezuelan crude. The first 50 million barrels will be worth an estimated $300m. On Jan 29, the US Treasury formally authorised US oil companies to lift, refine, and sell Venezuelan oil. As of March 2026, exports have surged to a seven-year high of 848,000 barrels a day. The revenue from that oil goes to the transition government but remains in US-controlled accounts. Leverage.
And guess who’s not getting Venezuelan oil at favourable prices any more? China.
Nicolas Maduro is sitting in a New York jail while the United States capitalises on Venezuela’s huge oil reserves Credit: XNY/Star Max
Now reconsider Iran. Look past Tehran’s long-running nuclear programme, past the long-range missile systems that have terrorised a region, or the proxy terror groups that receive Iranian funding and training. Look at Iran’s place in the Chinese energy empire.
As with Venezuela, Iran has been a major player in a Chinese oil trade system separated from the global market. As a result of being a sole buyer, Beijing has been getting the best prices – about 10 to 20 per cent below global benchmarks like Brent.
As a result, it’s estimated that China has been making annual savings of about $10bn and has been able to build up strategic reserves of 1.3 billion barrels, worth up to $112bn. By comparison, the US only maintains a strategic petroleum reserve of 415 million barrels of crude oil. Until now.
Now China is, like the rest of the world, trying to figure out the future of its oil supply. While some Chinese tankers have managed to pick up oil and head home, the example of Venezuela has got to be on Xi Jinping’s mind. It’s no wonder Beijing is adamant that it wants the US-China Summit to go ahead. Trump has Xi over a barrel – if you’ll pardon the expression.
Unlike his predecessors, Trump doesn’t care about the post-regime government. He wants it to be reasonably stable – shown by his insistence that the Iranian civilian population guide the process – but at the end of the day, Trump wants it to be on the side of America.
The US president is not just picking Chinese allies off for sport. He knows that Xi is obsessed with “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, a legacy that sees all its lost territories reunited with the mainland – including Taiwan.
For Trump, knowing what your adversary wants makes him predictable and also provides you with an outline of his strategy – and leverage points to apply. If China is building an alternate anti-Western coalition which also happens to control huge swathes of the international oil supply, take them out.
But don’t talk about taking them out in some grand-strategy way because that tips your opponent off to what you’re doing. So make it about the nuclear weapons programme, make it about the ballistic missiles, make it about the estimated 30,000 Iranian protesters who were killed – but don’t tip your hand.
And then when your opponent realises that you’re carefully deconstructing his system, his architecture, go and meet him and see whether he offers you a deal. Because at the end of the day, that’s the art form that The Donald loves most.
40% of Daily Telegraph readers are now Reform voters. That’s a huge amount. The DT is expanding its U.S. readership and already the magas have latched onto it too.
This article has absolutely delighted the Reform-Maga crowd.
I commented:
“Thanks to Trump’s lifting of sanctions, his dear friend Putin now has an extra $10 billion available to use to blow up Ukrainian apartment blocks and murder Ukrainian children in their beds.”
Christopher Buffini replied :
“Between February 24, 2022, and June 2025, the EU paid Russia roughly €209.81 billion for fossil fuels. This figure rose to over €221 billion by March 2026.”
Unfortunately he is correct.
Mar 5, 2025
Fact Check: Did Europe Spend More on Russian Oil and Gas Than Ukraine Aid?
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-trump-oil-europe-2039731
The Claim
“Trump said Europe has spent more money buying Russian oil and gas than defending Ukraine, adding that the U.S. had spent “$350 billion” which was like “taking candy from a baby” while Europe had spent “$100 billion—what a difference that is.”
Drivel of course.
“Trump has repeatedly said that the U.S. has spent $350 billion on Ukraine although, according to the Kiel Institute, the figure is much lower, totaling $114 billion as of the end of 2024.”
“The think tank’s Russia Fossil Tracker also showed that Russia has earned over 206 billion euros ($220 billion) in energy revenues from the European Union during the war, which surpasses the estimated 132 billion euros ($141 billion) in financial assistance for Ukraine.”
Comment from :
Jonathan Green
The writer makes a few valid points, but overall he gives Trump far too much credit.
Debbie Cook-Hunter
Honestly anyone that thinks the US huge B2 bombers could not decimate most of Iran are mistaken. The reason they haven’t is to protect the millions of Iranians that want freedom from the regime and to leave their oil capabilities mostly intact, so the country doesn’t implode. Decisive strikes on military installation, police stations, missile/drone stockpiles, navy ships, jets and speed boats. All the while Israel is taking out their terrorist supporters (Hezbollah, Houthi and Hamas) and their weapon stockpile. Narrowing targets to protect innocent civilians takes time. Could we bomb the Strait of Hormuz, yes but the damage may narrow the ability for ships to pass thru. It is a delicate dance to be sure but I have no doubt it will succeed. I am astounded that the so called European allies have so few resources and will to assist. It all just proves how the US was right all along our allies have failed to build their militaries and couldn’t even protect their own countries.
Rob Kay
At which point did the United States declare war on China, and if so, why? What’s the point of all this? It seems to me it’s utterly futile. It’s basically crashed the stock market and caused all kinds of international problems that are going to rattle on for years, decades. It’s not legal, and it’s not good. It’s no different from trying to bomb Gaddafi, really. A complete flop that was, wasn’t it?
Ore Are
This article is absolutely wrong. You know damn well that orange clown has no idea what he’s doing. No clear objective and no clear plan. The fact that a supposed to be one time bombardment of Iran has turned into a full WAR and you think trump knows what he’s doing? Think again Johnny boy.
stephen becket
This article is absolutely right. The secondary goal is to have a western centric Iran and that needs regime change. Don’t listen to Trump’s words, hear his message and then decide if you like it! To many people take him literally and that’s a mistake!
PARAMJIT SinghSingh
Usual crap, Israel forced Trumps hand, we all know it but western media won’t admit it. Trump gambled with this war which has shown the US cannot defend the Gulf states from the Iranian missiles. Trump is in trouble back home due to the mid term elections and is gambling on billions in investment in the A.I. centres from the Gulf to prop up the economy. US has spent trillions on the military complex and it has failed to stop the missiles! You couldn’t make this up.
peter moloney
Venezuela was a well planned military operation, though the post regime change wasnt. Iran has been done on a whim. Marines who should have been near the straights are in Japan, the CIA havent had time to arm or organize opposition within Iran, oil prices are spiking – I reckon on this one, if Trump could get out now unscathed, he would.
Paul Eastham
This wins the prize as the most ridiculous piece of Trump mysticism yet. Jut take one of these absurd suggestions – Given Venezuela’s modest share in China’s overall energy mix (1%) and Beijing’s alternative suppliers, this is an irritant and a useful U.S. pressure point rather than a dependency that would put Xi “over a barrel.”
Peter Gardner
Reply to Paul Eastham
You have missed the point. Trump does not need oil and gas from the Middle East, so he can cut off Iran’s crude oil exports, 80-90% of which go to China. So that gives him leverage over Iran, which is supported by China. It is only 11-13% of China’s imports, most coming from Saudi and Russia. Saudi wants the Iranian regime gone and has alternative pipeline routes for export and can make up for the reduced Iranian supply..
Yoog Skell
Xi Jinping is happy that Trump has mired the USA in yet another pointless Middle Eastern war. At the same time helping Russia with higher oil prices and an end to sanctions. It’s almost like the Chinese are running things in the background.
Vesper Kina
Yes, a marvellous person.
Just enriching himself whilst ruining everybody else – his personal wealth has increased by $4 Bn since he became President, mainly from meme coins and stable coins, where he conveniently changed the regulations so he could exploit the market. His family have leveraged his Presidency to get deals in the Middle East and now seeking Pentagon contracts.
Whilst denigrating the US armed forces, calling them suckers and losers, saying that the brain injuries suffered by 100 US troops following a missile strike were just “headaches”. But, he is happy to expose them all to further danger in his war of choice. He is also happy to exploit their deaths for his personal enrichment. He has included in his latest fund-raising campaign video of the dead bodies of the first six US troops killed in the Iran war. All whilst he was wearing merchandise. And now he has relaunched an Iran war version of his bible (printed in China), just so he can make a few extra dollars on the backs of dead US servicemen.
His war in Iran will, of course, have nothing to do with the quarter of a billion donated to his PAC by the Adelsons who have been campaigning for him to support Israel and attack Iran. Just a coincidence.
Andrew Lees
So, who cares about the hullabaloo re the Hormuz strait? Just ship it from Venezuela as much as the Venezuelan government can produce and let the Arabs start paying their way for security instead of hiding behind the west whilst paying nothing and pocketing billions. Go buy those Ukrainian drones.
Alistair Milne
This is an extraordinarily naive opinion.
No doubt appeals to some, but far too early to be so definitive about outcomes.
What we know so far… Trump has failed to halt Iranian ambitions for nuclear weapons. He has also reinforced the political and social of the theocratic extremists in Iran. He has destroyed a lot of weaponry and infrastructure. He has killed many senior figures in the administration. He has done nothing yet to deal with the Iranian closure of Hormuz, difficult to see what he can. No need fit Iran to negotiate. They can just wait. Trump now faces a choice, turn tail, declare victory and withdraw. (actualy a defeat for the US) …or send thousands of ground troops into invade Iraq. (which handled well might lead to victory, but at even greater risk).
In short Trump does not know what he is doing.
A Chicom shill writes :
Mole Hill
Donald operates differently, true, however he’s not as smart as you think he is. He’ll be lucky if he’s not impeached before the end of his term of office and America will be lucky to survive his presidency without suffering major geoploitical damage. There is only, without doubt, one beneficiary: China. And a world led by China may ultimately be a lot safer, more stable and pragmatic than one led by a Trumpian America.
De Housebuilder
Reply to Mole Hill
Straight from Tiananmen.
Wayne Kerr
Remember, China might have the biggest Navy in the World, but without Oil it is confined to Port and useless.
John Hemmings has it right here and I hope honest and fair people read this piece and begin to see the big picture. Besides that, I still think Trump won’t be able to pull putin/russia from the arms of China, especially after Ukraine sends them back to the 19th century.
Perhaps you may heed your own advice. Trump has been enriching Russia and allowing Putin to continue his war on civilians. Frankly, I don’t give a flying f**k what he did with Venezuela as it had absolutely negligible effect on the world or China. Let’s look at the facts…China imports 11.3mm bpd of which Venezuela provided to China 400,000 bpd. Importantly 33% of China’s imports came from Russia, Iran and Venezuela at a discount of $10-15 per barrel. Who in that group would you suspect provides more oil to China and who is killing our brethren. That my friend is the big picture. These one off comments about what Trump is doing is exceedingly small compared to the damage he’s creating with his love affair with Putin.
What a load of drivel.
I can’t imagine why someone didn’t tack on a disclaimer, “The views expressed in this article or video are solely those of the author and do not reflect reality.”
(Just kidding; we know why…)