Feb 14, 2025

Svitlana Moronets

Donald Trump has put Ukraine in its most vulnerable position since Russian tanks were rolling toward Kyiv three years ago. In recent days, he has handed concession after concession – on Ukraine’s behalf – to Vladimir Putin before official negotiations have even begun. Trump’s grand strategy for ‘peace’ is to give Putin everything he wants. Ukraine can forget about Nato, about reclaiming its occupied territories, about real security guarantees. On top of that, Ukraine must pay ‘reparations’ from its rare earth resources to the US for the aid received. And what’s expected of Putin? Not a thing.

Ukrainians are calling Trump an appeaser and a traitor, and urging Volodymyr Zelensky to reject any deal made without Ukraine’s involvement. The brutal realisation has set in: Ukraine’s main ally is leading it into another Minsk-style agreement. Trump can’t even say whether he considers Ukraine an equal party in negotiations, even after Ukrainians have paid the highest price with the lives of tens of thousands of their soldiers and civilians. The war isn’t over, but everyone in Ukraine is already talking about how to prepare for the next one.

Zelensky, ever the diplomat, is doing his best to keep his composure and reassure his people that the war is not lost. Today, he is leading the Ukrainian delegation at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, where they will meet US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as European leaders. But after Trump’s public surrender to Russia, the Ukrainian president has little leverage left. His job now is to seek the least bad deal for Ukraine, making sure the country won’t be attacked again in a year or two.

Zelensky has already softened his call for 100,000 Nato peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine. Since no American troops are coming to police the front line and European peacekeepers won’t be protected by Nato’s Article 5, Ukraine must do the job by itself. Today in Munich, Zelensky announced Ukraine is ready for a peacekeeping contingent made up entirely of Ukrainians. ‘The question is armament,’ he said. ‘If we have 150-160 F-16 aircraft and 25 Patriot systems, then why do we need US or European forces? If the issue is citizenship, it doesn’t matter. We need the US as an ally.’

While the US remaining Ukraine’s main ally looks highly unlikely, Zelensky can still rally the European allies to back him in negotiations with Russia. The latest statements from EU leaders have shown that most still stand on Ukraine’s side, insisting on a just peace. The official negotiations may still be far off, but Kyiv and allies must unite at least on one thing: Ukraine cannot and will not sign a deal that threatens its independence and sovereignty. It has its own red lines – ones that even mighty Trump is not allowed to cross.

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Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky is meeting the US team in Munich today for talks on ending the war. More below.
• A Russian drone hit the Chornobyl nuclear power plant sarcophagus last night. The radiation levels remain stable.
• Donald Trump has held phone talks with Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. He then announced his first meeting with Putin to take place in Saudi Arabia. Russia started forming a delegation for talks with the US.
• Ukraine has completed a draft agreement on rare earth metals and submitted it to the US.
• The EU and the UK have published a joint statement in support of Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity after the EU’s top diplomat accused Trump of ‘appeasement’ with Putin.
• China has reportedly proposed arranging a meeting between Trump and Putin without Zelensky involved, but was met with ‘scepticism’.
• Zelensky has imposed sanctions against ex-president and opposition politician Petro Poroshenko.
• Ukrainian men aged 18 to 24 who are exempt from mobilisation have been offered one-year military contracts with a high annual salary, free education and access to interest-free mortgages.
• The chief of staff of Ukraine’s anti-terrorism centre has been arrested on suspicion of working as a Russian agent.
• North Korea has sent 200 long-range artillery guns to Russia, and will soon send additional troops and arms to the front line in the Kursk region.
• Ukraine’s parliament has approved the controversial purchase of two Russian-made reactors from Bulgaria for the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant.
• The European Business Association has urgedKyiv to declassify its information on mineral deposit data to attract investments.
• Russia could be ready for a large-scale war against Europe in about five years, according to the Danish Intelligence.

In pictures

Chornobyl, Kyiv region: Damage is visible on the protective shelter of the destroyed 4th reactor at the nuclear power plant after the Russian drone attack last night. The fire was extinguished and radiation levels remained stable. (Credit: International Atomic Energy Agency)

Wider reading on the war

Putin has waited for this moment for 3 years, as Zelensky is left in the cold – CNN

Trump’s call with Putin alarms Europe and shocks Ukraine – Washington Post

This is Putin and Trump’s world now – Telegraph

Following an attack on opposition, Zelensky effectively begins election season – Kyiv Independent

Inside the new plan to seize Russia’s shadow fleet – Politico

Quote of the week:

‘We will not accept any bilateral negotiations about Ukraine without us’

– Volodymyr Zelensky said he will reject the result of any US-Russia peace talks held without Ukraine’s involvement.

The war in numbers:

Russian defence spending surpasses Europe’s

$462bn

Some $5bn more than Europe combined

Russia falls to worst ever corruption ranking

154th

Down 13 places on Transparency International’s 2023 index

Agricultural sales between Europe and Ukraine last year

$17bn

Europe accounts for 65% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

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Roman Sheremeta has commented on putinaZi war spending:

“Europe must wake up! Russian defence spending exceeds all of Europe combined.

“Total Russian defence spending soared last year by 42 per cent in real terms to Rbs13.1tn. That is equivalent to $462bn on the basis of purchasing power parity, which adjusts for what currencies can buy in their home countries.

European defence budgets by comparison, including the UK and EU member states, rose by almost 12 per last year to $457bn — slightly less than Moscow’s spending.”

The only thing that is currently stopping russia is the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers.”

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