Starmer’s defence spending increase will not be sufficient
28 February 2025
The Western alliance appears to be on the brink. In an appalling exchange in the Oval Office, what ought to have been a reconciliation between President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky descended into an outright shouting match as the Americans berated Mr Zelensky in front of a watching world. It was a chilling scene which will have worried everyone in Britain and Europe concerned for the security of their continent.
Such a public display of aggression from the White House towards any Western leader, let alone that of a valued ally locked in an existential military struggle, is unprecedented. Mr Trump and Mr Vance were indisputably in the wrong, factually, geopolitically and morally. The manner in which they chose to make their argument put the fractures in the Western coalition on full display and handed Vladimir Putin a propaganda victory.
One fundamental problem is that the Trump administration appears to view Russia’s war against Ukraine entirely through the prism of domestic politics, with long-held grudges over Hunter Biden and Trump’s first impeachment continuing to blind his team to the reality of the conflict.
Unsurprisingly, talks appeared to break down. Mr Zelensky left the White House early, and Mr Trump issued a statement declaring that Ukraine was “not ready for peace if America is involved” in negotiations as it gave the nation an “advantage”.
The prospect of the United States now providing security guarantees to Kyiv appears remote. Though Mr Trump is known to change his mind, it would be foolish to simply assume that he will do so, and that no preparation needs to be made for a world in which he carries through with his threats.
It is this, more than anything, that makes Sunday’s summit in London perhaps the most consequential meeting for Europe’s defence in decades, possibly since Yalta. While European leaders will have watched events in Washington with horror, they must not downplay the significance of Trump’s outburst or its implications for their continent.
Should American support for Ukraine cease, the continent must do what it can in order to enable Kyiv’s continued resistance. Indeed, even if a peace deal is struck, it seems increasingly clear that it will be up to Europe to ultimately provide the reliable security guarantees that would allow it to function, as well as the necessary fiscal aid.
There is no doubt that this is a formidable and unenviable task, but it is one that cannot be shirked. Years of underinvestment have eroded both the capabilities and mass of European armed forces to the point that many appear clearly incapable of sustained operations in the attritional environment of a modern peer-level conflict. Moreover, supplies and stockpiles of weapons systems have been eroded by previous gifts made to Ukraine.
Yet if Europe wishes to have any say over its own future, it will need to find the will to change this, and fast. The old, comfortable belief that the primary role of government is to provide the services and redistribution of the welfare state, while defence is provided by taxpayers an ocean away must be discarded. Europe must rearm, and at pace, with Sunday marking the first step in this process.
There is no doubt that finding the political will to achieve this will prove challenging. The current rise in the British defence budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP has already triggered one ministerial resignation, yet this is unlikely to be nearly sufficient for the more dangerous world we now inhabit.
As painful as the adjustment to the new geopolitical reality may be, it must take place. For decades, Europe has been able to rely on America to pick up the slack in its own defences, enjoying an illusion of greater prosperity as a result of this hidden subsidy. That era has come to an end.
Mr Trump’s outburst has made it quite clear that relying on old alliances and commitments to provide for our defence would be a grievous mistake. It could not be clearer that European capitals must find the will, and the force, to provide for their own protection.
This will involve military procurement and spending unseen on the continent since the end of the Cold War. Europe and Britain must be prepared to provide the full range of capabilities in land, sea and air necessary to stand independently of American assistance. While this will prove costly, failing to do so would be costlier still. Europe can defend itself, or leave its future to the capricious nature of Mr Trump. Such a choice is no choice at all.
Europe can do two decisive things. But past experience suggests they will do neither.
1/ transfer the $300 billion of putinaZi funds to Ukraine immediately. Arseholes who moan about “corruption” can be silenced by the appointment of an international auditing firm to oversee the allocations.
2/ prepare to assemble (just for now) five divisions of mechanised infantry to guard Ukraine’s vital Black Sea coast. More will be needed. A NFZ will be also needed.
The above will stop the putinaZi advance and may well create the conditions for a more reasonable outcome for Ukraine.
They should have done this in 2022. The Trump-Vance mugging attack has been coming for a long time. We are witnessing the formulation of a new U.S.-Rus alliance. It may even be formalised at some point.
As comedian Bill Maher has observed, the unpopular and bizarre Trans obsession of the Dems may well cost them the next election too. The deeply unpleasant possibility of a Vance-DT Jr govt is on the horizon.
Selected DT readers’ comments:
Max Kelada What most people are not realising is that the belligerent, demeaning words used by Trump and Vance to Zelensky were just negotiating tactics. Clearly, Trump wasn’t happy that Zelensky refused to accept the extremely onerous terms of Trump’s initial minerals deal. Zelensky thought he was going to the White House to sign a settled deal. He wasn’t. He ran straight into a negotiating buzzsaw. Then to add insult to injury Trump added that the U.S. “may” withdraw all military support for Ukraine. It’s simply negotiation. The Russians are celebrating prematurely. Trump will eventually cave because in recent days, the EU and France have been advancing their own minerals deal with Ukraine, which will be on far better terms than Trump’s. Zelensky has a big card to play! When this reality finally bursts Trump’s hubristic bubble, he will understand that the U.S. is not the only game in town, FOMO will motivate Trump to welcome Zelensky back, with open arms, to a much-revised deal along with continued military support. Zelensky is now heading to the UK then probably the EU to further negotiations on the mineral deal.
John Weber
This is all very true and Europe must rearm at once. In addition each and all European leaders and everyone else that values freedom must publicly call out Trump and his ignorant lackey for the cowards that they are. They must show the American people that we have a backbone and their country has been taken over by idiots.
This should start by the King withdrawing the embarrasing invitation for a State visit.
John McRory
One day, Russia is this behemoth of a country ready to invade all of Europe once it swallows Ukraine; the next, it is this joke of a country that can’t even defeat Ukraine. It’s either one or the other, but it isn’t both. I believe although you can’t forgive the invasion of Ukraine, you can understand the reasons behind it, and they are specific to Ukraine. But if we keep pushing Trump on Ukraine, he might well leave NATO, and then some East European countries will have a big problem.
Neil Shave
Europe and the UK need to rethink their entire defence strategy and pull together. Putin has failed to win a war against Ukraine despite three years of continuous bombardment and countless thousands of dead soldiers so what realistic chance would he have against a united European military force with superior numbers and firepower?
Steve McClellan
Time to get on a war footing in Europe. Appeasement is just a bigger war deferred. Putin is weak, his economy is on the brink. Of course we can afford 3% of GDP or more on defence, but in many respects the actual number is immaterial since we wouldn’t be supporting Ukraine on our own. It’s the collective will and investment that counts.
M H M Perrett
I do hope the politicians in Europe realise that production of the necessary ammunition and weapons for fighting a war TAKES TIME! The Factories need to be set to work NOW. it may be necessary to build those production factories. We have relied too long on buying in our NATO Standard Weapons and ammunition; much of it from the USA! WE had a feeling the USA would let guys down at some time in the future, which was why we opted for buying home produced Challenger tanks rather than buying the US model off the shelf.
Stephen Dougherty
Reply to M H M Perrett
Why not just stop treating Russia as our eternal enemy? They are no longer Communist- we won the Cold War, remember? Time for peace and magnanimity.
Walt Hogg
Reply to Stephen Dougherty
“They “the Russians) are no longer Communist.”
You’re right: they’re fascist.
Kremtroll scum alert :
Stuart Williams
What nonsense! Did that clown Frazer Nelson write this? Or that Marxist political editor Riley-Smith? The wee Monster/Mobster is not a ‘Western leader.’ The Ukraine is not part of the West. Full marks to Messrs Trump and Vance. Zelensky deserved every second of that. I wish it could have gone on for another hour. The brilliance of Trump!
Gordon Craig
Any arrogance on show was by Zelensky, in his faux military-style garb, expressing how hard he was working for peace – he ‘even traveled’ to US. Complete charlatan, imagine that approach in a country which has shoveled $350bn his way.
I am of the opinion that Trump should ask for 60% of mineral resources if peace agreed today. Day after 65% until Zelensky agrees peace etc…
andrew MCCALLUM
In an ideal world Putin would be pushed back to his own country with a bloodied nose and made to pay for the damage caused
Unfortunately, Putin has nuclear weapons and is the most likely leader of a country to use them when faced with defeat.
Blaming Trump for being a realist on this and looking after American interests is wrong. He is putting American interests first just like he said he would do.
Kremtroll scum :
Ivan Tikhomirov
Maybe morally wrong, but was Zelensky disrespectful? YES!!! Don’t watch just the last 6 minutes, watch entire 50 minutes while they all sat there. You’ll see who said what and how everyone behaved. Trump and Vance did NOT assault Zelensky as BBC said. Nor it was somehow planned or provoked. Zelensky simply HATES Trump, despises and disrespects him (he mocked Trump even when he was an actor). Vance dislikes Zelensky. He was inappropriately dressed and behaved like gopnik, not like president, he constantly interrupted Trump and Vance in aggressive manner and his whole disposition and even gestures were rude and disrespectful. Also he talked complete nonsense. Just WATCH it!
Paul Wormley
So the option is Russia gains the whole of the Ukraine over the next 3-4 years at most and with it all of the Ukrainian resources, or Zelensky signs off with the USA and they come in and have thousands of US citizens working with Ukraine on mining and investment etc.
Having US citizens on the ground within the Ukraine will prevent Putin from further advance as any US citizen harmed will entail a huge backlash from the US. There sits Zelensky’s guarantee
This stops the war and the senseless death of hundreds of thousands of people.
You can all belly ache about Trump but it makes sense and brings peace.
Al Heales
Reply to Paul Wormley
As Zelensky was trying to point out.. every peace deal with Putin over the years has resulted in Putin reneging and more people being killed. He was asking what guarantee would there be. Natural question from someone immersed in an unwanted war for years… what guarantee??
If THIS hasn’t awakened every man, woman, and child in Europe, I suppose they are clinically dead.
Europe and Ukraine should now make a deal of their own for Ukraine’s rich resources. I was always against making any deals with that orange colored gangster in the WH anyway.