Tanya Polyakovskaya13:53, 02.10.26

US President Donald Trump may lift some sanctions against Russia even before the war in Ukraine ends. His envoy to Eastern Europe, John Cole, made this proposal to the president, offering to lift some sanctions against Russia in exchange for the release of Kremlin political prisoners, according to renowned journalist Simon Schuster. UNIAN spoke with Oleksandr Merezhko, a Servant of the People member of parliament and chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation, about who might benefit from this, why, and, most importantly, how it would impact Ukraine.

How did the US assess the “Belarusian precedent” of easing sanctions and expanding dialogue in exchange for the release of approximately 500 people? Why did they decide to extend this experience to Russia?

Trump has unleashed a tariff war against Canada. As part of this war, he announced that he would not buy potash or potash, but would turn to Belarus. This means that these issues need to be considered in terms of specific economic interests.

This has created a rather unpleasant and even dangerous precedent for us. After all, at first glance, the issue appears to be humanitarian, the release of political prisoners, but in reality, it’s driven by rather pragmatic economic interests. Trump isn’t particularly concerned with what’s happening in Belarus or the fate of political prisoners. He’s interested in very specific economic issues, especially those related to business.

Sanctions against Russia were imposed as punishment for aggression against Ukraine. They have no bearing on the domestic political situation. The danger is that the Belarusian precedent could be exploited to advance economic interests.

Trump hasn’t made a decision yet, as far as I understand. There are people who say, “Let’s trade with Russia, we need to create a pretext for it; they’re giving us something symbolic, making a gesture like releasing some political prisoners, for example.” So, under the pretext that Russia is releasing political prisoners, the United States is lifting sanctions and starting to trade with Russia.

This would be very bad for us. The sanctions imposed as a result of Russian aggression against Ukraine can only be lifted when, at a minimum, Russian aggression against Ukraine ceases.

Does Trump have a legal mechanism to lift sanctions against Russia? Can he lift them by executive order, or does he need Congressional approval to do so?

I don’t have an answer. It was something like they passed a law limiting the president’s ability to lift sanctions. Sanctions are essentially foreign policy, and in the United States, they’re the president’s prerogative.

Now Congress has even given him additional powers. Why were the Democrats opposed? They weren’t opposed to Trump imposing additional sanctions against Russia and those who buy Russian oil and gas. But they understood that it was unclear how Trump would use them: he’d gain this leverage, but there was no guarantee he’d use it against Russia, China, India—the countries that buy Russian oil and gas.

There’s a political power struggle going on here, so it’s unclear how Trump will use these levers.

What will be the European Union’s role in this matter? Will its leaders and the heads of its member associations be able to dissuade the American administration from this idea?

The EU has its own sanctions, and the United States has its own. And they complement each other. This is important because we’re talking about the market. The European and American markets are very large, powerful markets. If the United States lifts sanctions, then the enormous American market opens up.

Therefore, I’m sure European leaders will try to prevent this. We need to do all this in advance. We need to work with Trump, with his administration, now to prevent this idea from advancing. Trump puts business interests first. His inner circle is full of very different views and people proposing different options. From “sanctions against Russia must not be lifted under any circumstances” to “let’s trade with Russia.”

What conditions might Trump set for partial or full lifting of sanctions: a freeze along the demarcation line, a peace agreement, or a troop withdrawal? And might this lifting not be tied to Ukraine at all?

The worst-case scenario is if Trump is guided by his economic interests and looks for an excuse. And here, Russia could do anything, even symbolically—release a few political prisoners or something like that—and Trump would have a humanitarian pretext for lifting sanctions.

I don’t see Trump having any clear, concrete plan or strategy for forcing Russia to end the war. Perhaps he doesn’t even have one.

What I see today is that there are two Trump representatives – Kushner and Whitkoff – and they’re simply saying, “The Russians are demanding your surrender and the withdrawal of troops from the Donetsk region – agree to the Russians’ terms.” That’s their entire strategy. There’s nothing else.

Will there be a so-called “snapback,” that is, an automatic renewal of sanctions, in the event of Russia violating the agreements?

If there is a ceasefire along the front line, then, as part of these guarantees, automatic reinstatement of sanctions is possible if Russia violates the ceasefire agreement. Only then can this issue be considered from this perspective. But that remains a long way off. There are no signs or hints that Russia will agree to this option. There are not even any negotiations on the matter.

What will happen to the effectiveness of sanctions if the US lifts some restrictions and the EU maintains its 22 packages?

This will be beneficial for Russia; it will improve its position. If this happens, and Russia continues to wage war, lifting sanctions will strengthen the Russian military machine. But European sanctions will remain in place, and, in my opinion, they can only be lifted once Russia brings its actions into line with international law. It will completely withdraw its troops from all of Ukraine, meaning Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea, will be restored, and Russia will pay reparations for the damages it has caused to Ukraine.

How will the unilateral lifting of US sanctions affect the issue of frozen Russian assets in Europe? And will it affect EU unity on sanctions?

There’s no direct connection here. But there are also supporters of Russia in Europe, and this will serve as an argument for them not to transfer Russian money to us. Pro-Russian European politicians will say, “Look: the United States has normalized relations with Russia—Europe should do the same.” Therefore, from all perspectives, America’s lifting of sanctions is a very dangerous precedent.

Previously, lifting US sanctions was one of Ukraine’s trump cards. Does the Cole/Trump idea mean that this trump card is now lost?

The lifting of sanctions must be the subject of ceasefire negotiations. Since they were imposed as punishment for Russia’s aggression, they can only be lifted once that issue is resolved and the aggression ceases. But this requires lengthy negotiations. And this can only be considered in a broader context: only when there is a ceasefire and security guarantees can anything be discussed.

Will Ukraine participate in the discussion of sanctions lifting conditions? Will Kyiv’s position be taken into account? Or will the decision be made bilaterally between the US and Russia?

I am convinced that Ukraine must have the final say. This follows from logic, because we are the victim of aggression. Sanctions are a way to stop aggression. And the victim of aggression itself must decide whether lifting sanctions is appropriate. Because lifting sanctions would strengthen Russian aggression and the Russian military machine of aggression.

Is a scenario possible in which the US formally maintains sanctions but begins issuing licenses to Russian and American companies for specific transactions?

Sanctions easing is possible. Sanctions are a process, because once they’re imposed, the targeted state tries to find ways to circumvent them. And then they have to be tightened again, closing the emerging loopholes. Therefore, sanctions easing could occur when, for example, Russia finds new ways and mechanisms to circumvent sanctions, and the US doesn’t try to stop these attempts.

Will Trump pressure Europe if ending the war becomes a condition for lifting sanctions, and the EU refuses to lift them? And if so, how?

He might try, but it’s unlikely to work, because Europe is very independent in these matters. And if he keeps up the pressure and the issue of ending Russian aggression remains unresolved, it will look very bad for Trump himself and his administration. Therefore, it’s unlikely he’ll decide on such a step. That’s only possible after Russia’s aggression ends.

(C)UNIAN 2026