Marta Gichko12:33, 26.12.25

Trump’s envoys view Russia’s return to the global economy as a source of profits and stabilization, but investors and analysts warn of high risks.

US President Donald Trump’s inner circle is increasingly discussing Russia as a potentially attractive destination for American business in the event of the end of the war against Ukraine,  The Wall Street Journal writes.

In particular, billionaires and Trump special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner believe that Russia’s reintegration into the global economy could bring profits to investors and help stabilize Moscow’s relations with Kyiv and Europe.

However, experts working with the Russian economy are much more skeptical.

“Russia is not the Emerald City or El Dorado. The prize is smaller than some people think,” said geopolitical risk analyst Charles Hecker, who worked in the USSR and Russia for more than 40 years.

Economists note that the Russian economy is comparable in scale to Italy’s, but has weak growth prospects due to population decline, depletion of easily accessible oil reserves, and almost complete dependence on energy.

A separate risk remains the political environment. Investors say that under Vladimir Putin’s autocratic system, foreign businesses could lose assets or even freedom. Hecker says:

“It’s unreasonable to think that a red carpet will suddenly be rolled out for Western companies now.”

This position was actually confirmed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “Everyone should be allowed to return. But returning here will cost them very dearly,” he said at an economic forum.

Former official of the Central Bank of Russia, Alexandra Prokopenko, considers talk of a massive return to business an illusion:

“For any ordinary foreign investor, Russia is still uninvestable.”

Even if sanctions are partially lifted, experts predict that only exporters that do not require significant capital investments will return. At the same time, large-scale investments are deterred by the risk of new sanctions, nationalization, and personal security.

This is also warned by Michael Calvey, the former head of the Baring Vostok investment fund, who was arrested in Russia in 2019 after a conflict with business partners linked to the Kremlin.

“I would be surprised if someone starts putting billions into real investments for years to come,” he said.

According to Moscow lawyers, since the start of the full-scale war, the Kremlin has confiscated assets worth about $49 billion, and the pace of nationalization is only increasing.

Experts also warn that any agreement with Moscow remains politically unstable. Pavel Khodorkovsky, son of former Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, says:

“Putin will keep his word only to the one to whom he gave it.”

Despite its significant natural resources, Russia’s prospects as a long-term investment destination remain frozen. “You come to an average European economy that is slowing down and dependent on arms spending. Why?” summed up economist Elina Rybakova.

(C)UNIAN 2025