Zelensky has to be absolutely certain that the US will blame the inevitable collapse of peace talks on Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky at the US president’s Mar-a-Lago residence Credit: JIM WATSON

Charles Lipson

30 December 2025

It was all smiles at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, when Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump met the press and spoke of a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The security guarantees necessary to end the war were “95 per cent done”, Trump said. Zelensky appeared to agree, at least in public

It was a false hope.

Trump desperately wants a deal, and he may have convinced himself that Putin will ultimately agree to one. But there is no chance the Russian president will accept anything more than a ceasefire masquerading as a peace deal. Actually, Putin is unlikely to agree even to that.

Some of Putin’s obstinacy is ideological. He has always considered Ukraine part of Russia, not an independent, sovereign nation. The whole of Ukraine was part of the USSR and acquiring its territory is now integral to Putin’s goal of building a “greater Russia”, as well as serving as a protective glacis against Western forces.

But Putin also doesn’t seem to think he is losing. True, his army’s gains on the ground have been minuscule. But in a war of attrition, he appears to believe that he can outlast the Ukrainians, who are running out of soldiers, and outlast Kyiv’s Western backers, especially the Trump administration, who are running out of patience.

Most importantly, Putin will fear that he cannot survive – in power and in life – if he takes a deal offering only modest gains after such a huge sacrifice of Russian men and money. Put differently, the terms minimally acceptable to Putin are flatly unacceptable to Ukraine, which has already paid an enormous price to defend its land against an unprovoked assault and which won’t surrender any territory essential to its future defence. Indeed, it may not be willing to surrender any territory that Russia hasn’t already conquered.

The territory at issue is especially significant: a series of fortified cities on the western edge of the Donbas. They serve as a military barrier against another Russian invasion. Why does Putin want those fortifications so badly unless he plans future attacks?

Zelensky must know all that, and so will his countrymen. They will figure, rightly, that if Putin does strike a deal with Trump, it won’t be a durable, long-term compromise. It will really be a Potemkin treaty, a mere pause in the hostilities as far as the Kremlin is concerned. Putin won’t bend his swords into ploughshares. He will be forging new swords and rebuilding his treasury to pay for them.

There are solid reasons for Ukraine’s scepticism. Putin has broken every deal he (or his predecessors) entered into.

Since Zelensky must understand these problems, why the smiles in public? Why is he nodding agreeably when president Trump says a deal is on the horizon?

First, because Zelensky learned a painful lesson in the Oval Office last February. A public fracas with Trump – or even a fierce private one – would be a serious tactical mistake. It’s far smarter to play nice.

Second, it makes sense to play nice because he wants Trump to pin the blame on Putin when a potential deal collapses, as Ukraine evidently expects. Trump needs to see that Putin, not Zelensky, is the obstacle to peace.

Why is this attribution of blame so important to Ukraine? Because the country is far smaller than its military foe, has already suffered enormous losses, and cannot sustain its war effort without tangible, on-going support from the US and its Nato partners. That means American satellite surveillance and targeting data plus a flood of military equipment, built in America and paid for by the Europeans. That means more American economic sanctions on Russia and its economic lifelines, such as the Chinese firms buying Russian oil. And if the Kremlin does agree to a deal, that means a commitment to provide Western troops and American air support for Ukraine.

Putin will never accept such a commitment from the West – and Zelensky must know it. The Russian president’s strategic incompetence has already put Nato on Russia’s doorstep in Scandinavia. He certainly doesn’t want to compound his humiliation by agreeing to Western troops in Ukraine, even if they come without a Nato Article 5 guarantee (an attack on one member is considered an attack on all). That is why the Russians will, in turn, be seeking every opportunity to pin the blame for the collapse of peace talks on Ukraine, most recently by making a fuss over a supposed Ukrainian drone strike on one of Putin’s residences.

The Kremlin doesn’t need Washington to side with Russia. It would be happy if Trump concludes that both sides would rather fight than compromise. That would give the US president a reason to wash his hands of an endless war and appease the isolationist wing of his party.

So Zelensky has to make certain – absolutely certain – that Trump and his administration pin the blame on Putin for the failure to strike a compromise deal. Zelensky may be smiling publicly. But that is surely what he is thinking privately.

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Charles Lipson is the Peter B Ritzma professor of political science emeritus at the University of Chicago. His latest book is Free Speech 101: A Practical Guide for Students. He can be reached at charles.lipson@gmail.com