As Russia grinds forward on the battlefield, the West must not deceive itself into allowing the Kremlin to permanently subjugate Kyiv
Ivana Stradner. 17 January 2025
As he prepares to take office, President-elect Donald Trump says he hope to meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin “very quickly” in pursuit of a speedy end to the war in Ukraine. Trump has suggested he believes Putin will be open to compromise, as the Russian president surely cannot be “too thrilled about the way [the war has] gone.”
While the Kremlin has expressed readiness to talk, the incoming administration must not be fooled. Moscow views these potential negotiations as a way to achieve its longstanding objective of subjugating Ukraine, not to reach a genuine compromise. The Kremlin seeks to use American eagerness for peace to help it achieve that objective. If this ploy works, it will succeed not so much because of Putin’s ability to deceive us but because we deceived ourselves.
Even as Moscow says it desires peace, the Kremlin continues to make maximalist demands. In recent months, Putin has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine must cede territory and abandon all hope of joining NATO. The Russian leader asserts that any deal should be based on a draft agreement negotiated in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, which fell apart after Russian forces withdrew from Kyiv’s outskirts, allowing the world to discover the atrocities the Russians had inflicted upon Ukrainian civilians there. Such a deal would circumscribe Ukrainian sovereignty, including by restricting the size of its military.
In short, the Kremlin seeks to lock in its own battlefield gains while leaving Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Russia would then be free to bully its smaller neighbour, including in a potential follow-up war.
Putin’s goal of dominating Ukraine isn’t going to change. He sees it as fundamental to Russia’s place in the world and to his own legacy as a modern-day tsar. In order to anticipate Putin’s next steps, Washington must understand how he thinks.
Whereas American diplomats are reminded daily of the benefits of trade and cooperation, Putin — trained as a KGB operative — thinks in zero-sum terms. There’s an old Russian joke that illustrates this mindset perfectly: A peasant lives between two houses that each have a cow, and he complains to God that he doesn’t have his own. When God offers to provide him with one, the peasant replies, “No, I’d prefer that you just kill my neighbours’ cows.”
Furthermore, whereas Americans think in four-year election cycles, Putin has the luxury of envisioning a longer horizon – the centuries required to actualise his imperial ambitions. He has said that the fall of the Soviet empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and therefore his primary goal is to restore Russia’s power, undermine NATO, and replace the American-led world order with a multipolar one.
The Kremlin does not believe that Trump’s ascension to power will lead to any radical change in Washington’s supposed hostility toward Russia. However, Moscow understands that Trump wants to be perceived as a “deal maker” who managed to end a conflict his predecessor failed to resolve.
Russia seeks to exploit this desire to “close the deal” to entice Washington into accepting Russia’s supposed right to suzerainty over Ukraine and pressuring Kyiv into one-sided concessions. The Kremlin has already some success in getting Trump to accept its framing of the conflict as catalysed by NATO’s expansion attempts rather than Russia’s. Sergey Lavrov, for example, praised Trump this month for a comment sympathising with Russia’s opposition to having NATO “right on their doorstep.”
In the meantime, Putin is looking to strengthen his leverage by grinding forward on the battlefield, where he believes his forces currently have the upper hand. The Kremlin likely intends to press its advantage until Kyiv capitulates or Russia simply has no option but to pause the fighting. Even then, any ceasefire may just be an interlude before another war.
The incoming American president would be wise to focus on steps to increase U.S. and Ukrainian leverage. He should impose more sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with more weapons. Trump must not fall for Moscow’s deceptions. No dialogue, vodka, or “peace through trade” will alter Putin’s ambitions.
Comment from :
Michael Mennell
Trump (like Biden and Clinton) is a draft dodger. Hence, he has no stomach for war/conflict. Plus his huge ego allows himself to be played. Plutin and his KGB style cabinet know all this and will do everything to persuade him that Russia is not such a bad apple.
Now with Piers Morgan muddying the waters with talk of a ‘Nobel Peace prize’… Trump is an even softer target. The new President needs some very hard nosed advisors or he is quite likely to hand Ukraine the short straw.
Another Reader
There will not be peace or security in Europe while Putin is allowed to continue his illegal invasion of Ukraine and his war crimes. The UN has shown itself to be a total irrelevance while Russia and China remain on the security council.
Simon Reeve
Reply to Another Reader
Agreed. Deluded tyrants like Vladolf Putler never stop until they are stopped. The free-world can help Ukraine stop him now or fight Russia more directly later with much less of an advantage… those are the two options. Appeasement is choosing the second option– it is choosing a bigger, worse war later.
Andrew Atrens
Unfortunately they are like two peas in a pod. Three peas if you include Mr. Xi.
I’ll take Canada, Panama and Greenland, you can have Ukraine and Mr. Xi can have Taiwan. Super. That was easy. A beautiful deal for America. There now just like that everyone is happy!
US voters delude themselves when they believe that they can have Trump a la carte. Mr. Putin has been called a gangster with a gas station. Xi has been said to have a “mafia mentality”. And Mr. Trump is a convicted felon.
They deserve each other and America, Jake Sullivan in particular, deserves all three of them.
Simon Reeve
The US signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994 too– alongside Russia and the UK– assuring Ukraine’s “independence and sovereignty in the existing borders” in exchange for their massive nuclear arsenal.
If Trump wants America to default on the Budapest Memorandum, he should somehow give Ukraine the 1,700 nuclear warheads, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), and 33 heavy bombers that they gave up as part of that deal… THEN he can talk about a new deal… 🙄
Alan Parker
Gallop has done lots of polling.
Crimeans just 9 months before Putin annexed Crimea.
Click to access iri_ukraine_august-september_2013_poll.pdf
The poll asked this crucial and revealing question.
In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea be?
Autonomy in Ukraine (as today) 53% +4%
Crimean Tatar autonomy within Ukraine 12% +8%
Common oblast of Ukraine 2% -4%
Crimea should be separated and given to Russia 23% -10%
Do not know/answer 8% +2%
Difference is from October 2011 poll that asked the same question.
So only 23% of Crimean Citizens/residents wanted to be part of Russia just 9 months before the illegal annexation, more to the point this had dropped by 10% in the previous 18months.
Anyone like to ignore the facts and claim Crimea is Russian and wants to be Russian?
James Canning
Trump’s eagerness to talk directly with Putin will be understood by Putin as an expression of weakness on the part of the US.
Kremtroll alert:
Solomon Wise
When the Soviet Union was dismantled, Russian leaders, naively it now seems, expected the ‘normalisation’ of relations with the west. But elements in the west, particularly in the, US were spooked by the idea of a Europe with Russia in it. They perceived such a block as a threat to their dominance and took steps to isolate and rebuff Russia. That goal has been achieved at great cost. Then more recently, the goading of Russia (e.g., the unnecessary threat of NATO expansion) was brought into play as it became clear that some European countries were becoming reliant on cheap Russian energy, which in turn was providing influence and an improvement in relations with a number of European countries – once more considered a threat by some in the pentagon. The rest you can work out yourself. It’s pretty obvious if you stand back and ignore the propaganda.
Simon Reeve
Reply to Solomon Wise
I’m pretty sure your last sentence should actually be “It’s pretty obvious if you ignore the facts and consume only Russian propaganda” 😄
Andrew Crawford
Reply to Solomon Wise – view message
What’s pretty obvious to work out is that Ukraine and its people have aspirations to be part of the West, and not to be eternally enslaved to the vile feudal-fascist kleptocracy of an ex-KGB hood. What’s equally obvious is that Putin sees the western-oriented liberation and independence of Ukraine as a threat to his risible delusions of Great Russia — a giant hole that doesn’t make so much as a toaster that anyone anywhere else wants to buy, where millions upon millions of people are unfamiliar with indoor plumbing, and where life expectancy for males at birth is 67.
Trevor Smallwood
Reply to Solomon Wise
Poor Russia. Did the nasty West kick sand in your face?
Give us a break. Russia has been making multiple land grab for the last 3 decades.
They are sanctioned because their foreign policy is appalling.
Another fucking kremtroll:
Jonathan Green
9 HRS AGO
Ms. Stradner, you call for more weapons and sanctions to increase the leverage of Ukraine and its de facto Western allies in forthcoming peace talks. But, more weapons will not solve Ukraine’s manpower problem, which is said to be much more dire than official casualty figures reflect. Despite the posturing of some European leaders, there is little popular support for more NATO boots on the ground, beyond those already there in some ostensibly “advisory” or “technical” capacity.
As for sanctions, Russia is already the most sanctioned country on earth. It’s by no means certain or even likely that Russia will be deterred either by more weapons in the hands of Ukrainians coupled with more sanctions imposed on Russia.
You claim that Putin wants to subjugate Ukraine. But does he? Ukrainians and Russians lived side by side in peace for many years, did they not, both inside the USSR and separately? Is it really so far-fetched to believe Putin’s stated objectives that he wants a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine, as opposed to one that is a member of a hostile military alliance up against its southern border?
Can Ukrainians and Russians not learn to again get along with each other?
Andrew Crawford
Reply to Jonathan Green
“Can Ukrainians and Russians not learn to again get along with each other?”
Sure. And I’d like to teach the world to sing in perfect har-mon-y.
What you’re advocating is the voluntary extinguishing of Ukrainian nationhood, Ukraine’s surrender to the perpetual shackles of a hideous gangster kleptocracy, and the abject sacrifice of its aspirations to chart its own course on the world stage as an independent and sovereign nation. Nobody claiming any respect for national sovereignty should countenance such subjugation for a second.
Star comment :
Auclan McIntyre
NATO isn’t up for negotiation. I am sure Putin knows Ukraine is already (from 1994) a NATO Partner Country. That’s not going to change. His 3-day operation fell over on the 4th day, and he lost the chance to rip Ukraine out of its NATO Partnership.
And nothing else should be up for negotiation apart from Russia returning to its treaty agreed and established borders.
The world will be a better place for shoving a bully back into his hole.
I’m not so sure that the orange man child is aware of anything of importance. The way he always lies tells me that his world is a wholly different one from the real world.