Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
April 28, 2025
Is the latest Russian ceasefire announcement another meaningless gesture, an attempt to appease the US president who seems to have ended his bromance with the dictator in the Kremlin – or a genuine attempt to end the bloodshed in Ukraine? We can all hope it is the latter, but we should be very suspicious.
One factor is likely to be that Russia says it has now retaken all of Kursk oblast. Zelensky has thus lost one of his key bargaining chips, which might increase Putin’s willingness to bargain. Then, Russia has just seen another top general assassinated, virtually on the steps of the Kremlin. One can see why Putin and his close circle may be somewhat spooked by the ease with which the Ukrainian secret service or its proxies are now operating in the Russian capital.
Virtually up until the Pope’s funeral at the weekend, all the advantage seemed to be with Putin, as Trump and his key lieutenants – most especially Steve Witkoff – seemed to be buttering up the Russian leader and bullying President Zelensky. Possibly the US president had his “Road to Damascus” moment at the Vatican on Saturday. Certainly he has now demanded a permanent ceasefire.
Meanwhile there is no real reason to believe the promises of the Russian president. Russia after all agreed to protect Ukraine when it signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, and this is at least the fourth ceasefire announcement in as many months. The 30-day ceasefire and the Black Sea ceasefire came to nothing from the Russian side, and in reality the Easter one largely did as well – except in Russian eyes to show Putin as a religious and caring soul over this Christian holiday.
Putin did, there can be little doubt, also order the chemical attack on my hometown of Salisbury in March 2018 which could have killed thousands of civilians here, in a failed attempt to kill one double agent. He seems to have complete disregard for civilian casualties and collateral damage, so there must be another reason for his latest offer.
It may be that the “mothers of Russia” are finally beginning to have an impact on Putin, who well knows they forced the Kremlin into an ignominious withdrawal and defeat in Afghanistan in the 1980s after the Russian Army suffered just 17,000 dead. Many believe that this time Putin is responsible for sending around a million Russians to their deaths or serious injury. Maybe, at last, the state-controlled media can no longer suppress these horrendous casualty rates.
I judge the Russian army is very close to its culminating point, in other words it has run out of steam. With Trump possibly now siding more with Zelensky, Putin is perhaps canny enough to realise that if he can freeze the war as it is today he can probably paint it as a great victory; the converse could be a repeat of Afghanistan and no peaceful and wealthy retirement for him.
But I’d say this latest announcement is more likely to be an attempt by Putin to keep Trump on his hook, carrying on with his illegal war but avoiding serious US sanctions by skilfully playing the US president on his line. I hope I’m wrong.
Comment from :
Gone Downhill
“I judge the Russian army is very close to its culminating point, in other words it has run out of steam.”
Your evidence for the above statement?
Adam Turner
Reply to Gone Downhill
Here you go matey:
Russian losses:
800,000-900,000 fatalities
3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems
Sources:
Russia Matters – Russia-Ukraine War Report Card (April 2025): Comprehensive overview of casualties, equipment losses, and economic impact.
• Kyiv Independent – Equipment Losses (January 2025): Detailed, visually confirmed equipment loss data from the Oryx project.
• DefenseScoop – U.S. European Command Briefing (April 2025): U.S. military estimates on Russian equipment losses.
• BBC News Russian & Mediazona – Documented Deaths (April 2025): Named confirmations of Russian military deaths.
• Kyiv Independent – Death Toll Analysis (March 2025): Ukrainian official estimates and context for Russian losses.
• Newsweek – Russian Losses in Ukraine (March 2025): Recent casualty rates and analysis of manpower impact.
• Wikipedia – Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War (April 2025): Aggregated estimates from multiple Western and Russian sources, including breakdowns by type and period.
James Canning
Hamish suspects Putin wants to continue Russia’s war against Ukraine and exploit Trump’s urge to appease him. So do I.
Robert James
“He seems to have complete disregard for civilian casualties and collateral damage, so there must be another reason for his latest offer.”
You don’t say!!
Campbell McNeill
Trump now knows that he gave Putin a chance which has been spurned in full view of a world audience.
He can let loose on a full pack of actions against him now that the Nobel prospects are gone completely.
I don’t think Trump will be willing to accept the loser tag.
He will want a lot more effort from both Ukraine and Europe.
Watch out for fireworks.
Stephen Harris
I think you are right and excellent post. However, Trump will pivot once Putin crosses his red line quite rapidly. Trump will feel betrayed by Putin. Zelensky may wind up with tactical nukes.
Matthew Bell
Now is the time to go hard on sanctions and bring Putin to an end.
Mark wright
Trump has egg all over his face already and Putin is just making Trump look like a complete loser and his personal clown. Trump won’t do anything and Putin knows it.
Trump is not Churchill
When will Trump WAKE UP. In the meantime Putin strings him along and the killing continues.
Ben Harrison
Lavrov has stated in an interview with a Brazilian media channel that he rejects the current proposal. Very likely that no deal will now occur. So the war goes on.
In Putin’s eyes, rightly or wrongly, he probably sees the current proposal would not last and would mean Russia having to fight a bigger stronger force later when Ukraine moved to take back the regions Russia now occupies. This conflict is fast entering 1984 proportions. It will never end. It will draw in Europe and China in increasing amounts, neither geopolitical group willing to stand down as more and more political capital is invested.
Kelvin Clarke
You are right that the Russian Army is close to collapse.
The reason Putin has called for a “cease fire” now is obvious: he is terrified that Ukraine will humiliate Russia on May the 9th.
Phlogiston Theory
Sorry Hamish but I fear you are wrong. If NATO fails to allow Ukraine to defeat Putin then WW III becomes very close indeed.
Inevitably a kremtroll turns up:
Philip Logan
600k Ukrainian males have slipped out of the Ukrainian draft fishnet. They know the war is lost. Regardless of whether Trump is on/off Putin’s “hook” will not help Ukraine. Biden would not send in the 1st Marine division to save Ukraine and neither will Trump. For all the tough talk Macron/Starmer/Merz are not going to send troops. Ukraine is beaten and Russia has won. This war is being pushed by Europe leaders not because they fear Putin but because they don’t want Trump to have a diplomatic victory.
The Ukrainian people are caught in the middle.
Michael N A Tarrant
Reply to Philip Logan –
People like you disgust me.
John Gordon-Smith
Ukraine needs to be armed to the hilt with no Biden style restrictions on where they can be aimed and while this is taking place, every sanction imaginable should be imposed on Russia in particular its shadow fleet. With a nut this hard to crack a sledgehammer is required. This should all have been done long ago. And while you are at it demolish Putin’s pride and joy twelve mile bridge.
David Hussell
Horrible TDS biased headline from this warmonger, who resists peace and yet has no practical solution to offer.
Charlie Wimbledon
Reply to David Hussell
Have another down vote.
Alex Pye
Reply to David Hussell
TDS – what kind of argument is that!
David R Crawford
Reply to Alex Pye
Standard from those suffering from Trump Devotion Syndrome when they have no argument against a post which does not worship the ground walked on by The Messiah.
Merrill Berthrong
People do not understand Donald Trump and the way his mind works. There hasn’t been any appeasement of Putin, he has instead been given enough rope to hang himself.
Putin’s response to Trump’s very reasonable attempts to secure a peace deal, obviously indicate that Russia is not serious about ending the war. Putin has made a grave error in misreading Trump as being soft. Trump has demonstrated in the past, that he carries a very big stick, and likes to use it with impunity.
Putin has crossed the rubicon. Events are now going to take a completely different phase. What is going to happen next, you will not find in “The Art of the Deal”.
Martyn Edwards
Reply to Merrill Berthrong
I hope you are right. One thing is certain; by exercising considerable forebearance with Putin, Trump now has the full support of the exasperated West should he wish to use his big stick to belabour Putin.
Peter Hirsch
Trump wants to end the war. He should by now have learned Putin wants to continue the killing until he wins.
The only way to stop the killing, therefore, is to destroy Putin’s armed forces including Putin himself. NATO without the US cannot do that. NATO, a defensive alliance, cannot attack: it can only defend, But it might provoke and respond to a Russian attack on one of its Members.
Bruno Anderson
I think the your narrative is spot on, if you where talking about rational people. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
For the Kremlin, Putin, vast quantities of human lives are expendable in pursuit of his personal ambition. He will go down in history akin to Hitler, Stalin, Mugabe et al as “Humanities most Evil Souls” Kindling and coals are being prepared for this Christian man I suspect.
Trump was baled out by Russian Oligarchs paying twice the price for one of his hotels, he was struggling to sell. Russia plays the long game, decades as we can see. Ukraine would not back his, Trumps pursuit of Hunter and the rest of the Bidens for corruption in Ukraine, until the last minute, but then Biden came good on weapons. Why? we can only suspect! What was Ukraine to do? Send dosier after dossier about the US Presidents son when he needed all their help.
So Putin wants Ukraine, Trump does not like Ukraine, so there we have it!