US president’s feckless approach to peacemaking risks a flawed deal that would clear the way for another Russian invasion
Donald Trump clashes with Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting at the White House last year Credit: Saul Loeb
David Blair was a foreign correspondent for nearly 20 years, reporting from 60 countries across Africa, Asia and the Middle East. He then joined the Foreign Office and later No10, where he wrote speeches and advised three Foreign Secretaries and one Prime Minister. He returned to The Telegraph as Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator in 2025.
03 February 2026
There is nothing so dangerous as a peace process that ends one war only by risking another. Donald Trump seems oblivious of this reality as he dispatches his faithful envoy, Steve Witkoff, to broker a deal – any deal – between Russia and Ukraine at the next round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, taking place on Wednesday and Thursday.
These negotiations are expected to focus on what Witkoff has described as the “one issue” that remains unresolved: the future of about 2,300 sq miles of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
While the rest of Donetsk has been captured by Russia, this area remains in Ukrainian hands. Through four years of full-scale invasion and one brutal offensive after another, Russia has never managed to capture it. Ukraine’s soldiers have repulsed Vladimir Putin’s attacks and doggedly held the line at immense cost.
So Putin is trying to gain at the negotiating table what he has failed to seize on the battlefield. Ukraine has long since accepted, with weary resignation, that any peace settlement would allow Russia to retain the 20 per cent of their country which its forces have occupied. But that is still not enough for Putin. He insists not just on keeping what he currently holds but on being given still more.
And Putin’s demand is not merely an injustice but profoundly inhumane. The territory in question has some 200,000 inhabitants who would be handed over to an enemy that, if experience is any guide, will murder the men, rape the women and kidnap the children.
Even worse, giving this land to Russia would risk setting the stage for another war. This vital area – slightly smaller than Devon – encompasses some of Ukraine’s most formidable defences, including the fortress towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which protect the rest of the country and the route to Kyiv.
If all these painstakingly constructed strongpoints are simply handed over to Russia, the way would be open for Putin to launch another invasion designed to conquer the whole of Ukraine, which has always been his real objective. And by insisting that President Volodymyr Zelensky must surrender his fortress line, Putin is strengthening Russia’s position for any such future war.
Any peace envoy worth the name would see through this ruse. But not Trump or Witkoff, who yearn for the glory of brokering a deal regardless of its consequences and who remain mysteriously willing to indulge Putin’s view of the world.
The obvious way to break the deadlock and achieve an agreement would be for the US president to tell his Russian counterpart to drop this absurd demand for territory that Moscow’s forces have not captured.
Trump could back this with real pressure, for example by supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles to destroy Russian oil refineries, or by allowing the Senate to pass a bill – which has lain dormant for a year – to suffocate the Kremlin’s oil exports by imposing US tariffs of 500 per cent on any country that buys them.
Instead, Trump sees himself as an impartial mediator between the aggressor and the victim, taking no view on the merits of any claims, and merely instructing Witkoff to devise forms of words on which the parties can pretend to agree.
In practice, that places all of America’s pressure not on Putin to abandon his dangerous fixation on Donetsk, but rather on Zelensky to accept some formula that might allow Ukraine to relinquish this territory.
The proposed solution includes security guarantees from the United States and a detailed plan for exactly how Ukraine’s European friends would police a ceasefire and react to any new Russian invasion.
In themselves, these steps are necessary and sensible. But Trump’s error is to give the impression that these assurances are conditional on Zelensky signing away the rest of the Donetsk.
The alternative would be for America to join hands with Europe to exert combined pressure on Putin to clear the obstacle to peace by dropping his territorial demand. But, even now, Trump and Witkoff still appear to see Zelensky as the problem to be overcome and Putin as comparatively reasonable.
Trump’s relentless incompetence as a peace-maker – displayed in the largely bogus list of conflicts he claims to have ended – creates two dangers. The first and most likely is that Putin, under no extra pressure for his intransigence, simply maintains his claim to Donetsk and no route is found to evade this obstacle, meaning that the war continues.
Alternatively, Zelensky might be muscled into giving up the 2,300 sq miles on the basis of assurances and security guarantees that fail to compensate for handing over Ukraine’s strongest defences to the invader. If so, Putin would take the opportunity to start another war, probably after a respite to re-arm and re-equip his forces.
In short, Trump’s inept diplomacy may either perpetuate today’s war or achieve a flawed peace that sows the seeds of the next.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/03/trump-is-sowing-the-seeds-of-the-next-ukraine-war/
“The territory in question has some 200,000 inhabitants who would be handed over to an enemy that, if experience is any guide, will murder the men, rape the women and kidnap the children.”
And you can take that to the bank Krasnov.
Not that it would matter to a person with the critically damaged psychology (see Mary Trump’s diagnosis) of this criminal president.
Comment from :
Tim Gower
Trump aka Agent Krasnov since 1987 is a Russian Asset, puppet of Putin, appeaser and supporter of a tyrannical, murderous despot who doesn’t value human life, only his and only wants war not peace.
Trump the insurrectionist, wannabe dictator, convicted felon and habitual liar is only interested in himself not peace and helping a Sovereign and Democratic Country in repelling an illegal invasion.
Arm Ukraine to defend itself properly and attack Putin and destroy this murderous despot.
Ray Hill
Its reasonable logic. Trump just delivers sticking plaster solutions to feed his ego. Never tackles or understands root causes. I suppose his witless negotiating dog will be licking Pytlers boots this week, and coming back with a shiny doggy bag of goodies for his master. The US are just trying do do same thing Chamberlain did with Hitler in 38, remind me how that evolved.
john franklin
Ukraine is the first line of the defence of Europe. Putin sees himself as another ‘Peter the Great’ and wants to regain the borrders or at least the ‘sphere of influence’ of the former USSR. Beyond this, like Stalin, he wants to dominate Europe to the Channel and the Baltic. Anyone who supports Trump’s phony peace proposal is a fool and if Trump succeeds the very freedom of our descendants will be in peril.
ANDREW WRIGHT
Very good article, Trump is clueless and is storing up serious problems. Very little pressure on Putin, he just needs to sit it out and wait for Trump to cave in completely.
Chris Brooks
Stop messing about. There’s only one thing a bully understands is force.
Just give Zelensky the warfighting kit his army needs to repel the Russian invader and give Russia a bloody nose.
robert dyson
The sad reality is that what ever the nature of a peace agreement, Putin will simply use it to re equip his army before resuming his plans to take the whole of the Ukraine.
Dingly Square
Stop having a go at Trump! The guy is a genius and it baffles me some people can’t see it.
Nigel Dennison
Russia should not keep any Ukrainian territory , not even Crimea but it should start paying vast reparations.
Jon Carmi
Trump is compromised and Witkoff is clueless. Europe and the UK have morally weak leadership. The outlook for Ukraine is difficult. Evil is being allowed to flourish. This is now a dark period of history.
Martin Whapshott
Since 2022 the solution to this war remains in the overwhelming supply of mass produced long range missiles and drones. Only when Ukraine can inflict unsustainable attrition on Russian infrastructure, military, manufacturing, oil, gas, communications, logistics and command and control targets will the Russians be beaten back. This is more important today than ever as Putin is clearly running out of money, men and materiel to prosecute the war. Secondary and permanent tariffs on China will further isolate Putin into defeat. At that point he will be taken out as Russians won’t want to start a nuclear exchange just because of Putin’s punctured ego.
The Ukrainians have far more courage than any Western leaders. If occupation came with a very short life expectancy do you think Russia could sustain this war? Of course not. No nation could. We have wasted 4 years and we shouldn’t waste any more. Ukraine needs mass produced missiles and drones in the order of thousands per day. We can make cars at that rate so it shouldn’t be difficult to replicate for weapons. Russia would not be able to repel that combined output of Western countries. Putin would be removed or have an appointment with gravity, and a moderate leader would sue for peace.
Peter Manning
The so-called mighty Red Army has been shown to be pathetic. Stopped in its tracks by brave Ukraine. If Trump fears Russia in the Arctic why doesn’t he take the chance to give it a slap in Ukraine to solve the problem? It’s all so obvious. Trump is a traitor.
R Ellis
Witkoff is useless. Putin only understands strength and Trump and Witkoff are bowing down to him. Putin has over 1m deaths on his hands and Trump and Witkoff shake his hand and smile at him. Unbelievable. It’s a war and Ukraine needs to be armed with long range missiles and threaten Moscow. Putin will not use nuclear weapons as he knows it will be the end of Russia and he will be blamed in the history books. Bullies do not stop if you don’t hit back.
Margaret Pike
Donetsk is Ukraines long established – high ground – ‘fortress belt’, Russians are going forward at a – literal – snails pace their, at huge losses. Which tells you how much Putin wants it, no? If lost future Russian attacks have a open plain, to Ukraines heartland.
That is why Putin wants it, that is also why Trump is so very silent on massive Russian drone and missile attacks, intended to cut power, when the temperature goes below -20C?
Trump will do whatever Putin wants, but absolutely no blackmail is causing this, he supports Putin simply because he admires him, for being exactly the ‘tough guys leader, he knows that he is not. Just a cheap fake, all the bling, all the glitter, but with nothing inside at all.
Richard Smith
I think the US administration position is something like this:-
1) An ongoing war is not in their strategic interest
2) Any “peace” is better than ongoing war for the USA and world economy. The terms don’t matter much to them.
3) They see Russia becoming more aligned with China; and that creates a strategic risk for the USA; by giving Russia a win they can seek to loosen these ties and bring Russia closer to the USA
4) They don’t care about the Ukrainian people or “right” – they care about their own perceived self interest
5) Carving up Ukraine, a la a 1939 Poland could be advantageous; if Russia takes more of Ukraine and USA can benefit this is not only OK but possibly desirable.
6) Russia will not invade any of the main EU/NATO countries – but if they took anything from a Baltic state – they would not act.
SJ Gy
Reply to Richard Smith –
I think it’s simpler than that – Donald thinks he can line his pockets if he sides with Putin, that’s all.
Margaret Pike
Trump seems to care little about Putin’s attempt to freeze Ukranians, except possibly to quietly support it? It puts huge pressure on Ukraine, to do a deal disasterous to its future. From below Telegraph link: “around 450 drones and more than 60 missiles”.
Which he cares nothing about, in truth if a NATO country was attacked by Russis now -say, one of the Baltic States – does anyone reading this, believe that Trump would allow America to get involved! Get real…
Oh, are the Iranian protestors – those still alive, mind – still waiting for the help that Trump said, was “on the way?”
How about democracy in Venezula, or is Trump more than happy with the extreme female marxist/communist now in charge, but having to do what he says ‘or else’. A monster still, but now obeying American orders.
“Vladimir Putin was accused of waiting for temperatures in Kyiv to plunge to -20C before unleashing hundreds of missiles and drones, cutting power to more than 1,000 buildings on the coldest night of the year.
Around 450 drones and more than 60 missiles – including Zircon, Kh-32 and Iskander-M cruise and ballistic weapons – struck cities including the capital in what Ukraine said was a calculated effort to inflict maximum suffering on civilians.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/03/putin-kyiv-power-coldest-temperature-missile-drone-attack/
Zel has just said the following :
🇺🇦 If we lose the war, we will become part of Russia — Zelenskyy
Responding to a question about whether he fears losing the war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that of course he does — but he is confident it will not happen.
💬 If we lose this war, we will simply lose our country’s independence. We have managed to preserve it so far. If we lose our independence, if we become part of Russia, it would be an absolutely horrific loss. 💬
When asked whether there will be peace in Ukraine within a year, the president said he hopes so:
💬 We will do everything possible. This is our priority — mine and my team’s. 💬
Video: France 2
“allowing the Senate to pass a bill”
Congress is supposed to be a co-equal branch of government. They shouldn’t need to have trumpkov “allow” them to pass anything. If the Republicans in the Senate had any balls, they’d pass it and dare trumpkov to veto it. But, alas, they (by and large) don’t.