Now it is time for the American president and his European allies to put the money where their mouth is
25 September 2025
President Trump is saying that Ukraine can win back everything it lost since 2014; he now believes Russia is a paper tiger. I believe this time the President is right, but only if he follows his words with deeds. More importantly, given his recent form, he must stick to his guns rather than change direction again.
A “paper tiger” is a calque of the Chinese phrase “zhǐlǎohǔ”. The term refers to someone that claims or appears to be powerful or threatening, but is ineffectual and unable to withstand challenge. Trump, or rather his speech writer, has done his research, and how ironic it is that Putin’s newfound friends in Beijing have such an apt description of the Russian tyrant.
In order to realise Trump’s lofty ambitions and confidence in the Ukrainian president, the US and Europe need to make several military and financial decisions which will set the conditions to allow the Russian hordes to be vanquished.
Firstly, there must be a no-fly zone established by Nato, initially in western Ukraine to protect civilian targets. With the abundant F35s at Europe’s disposal, this can be achieved from outside Ukraine airspace with no chance that Russian fighter jets can entangle with Nato jets.
This will blunt Russia’s plan to terrify the Ukraine population into capitulation and allow much needed Ukrainian air defence forces and other military assets to move eastwards and support Ukrainian army offensive operations.
Secondly, President Trump needs to providemuch more long-range precision guided missiles, paid for by Europe, and take the shackles off what targets they can hit and how deep into Russia they can go. We are seeing how effective Ukrainian deep strategic strikes are using their organically produced missiles and drones. This would be exponentially increased if Ukraine had greater access to western technology.
Thirdly, of course, is the full array of sanctions. It is not enough to threaten Russia with them; they must be fully implemented. Europe must step up to, and be prepared to defend, Ukraine cities; perhaps even with “boots on the ground or in the air”. The Ukrainian military is showing around Protrosk, especially, that they can make progress and retake ground. But to do this on the scale Trump is suggesting they will need the full support of Nato.
Ukraine will only win if Europe goes all in and Trump doesn’t change his mind tomorrow. The next Russian jet which touches Europe must be dispatched, or all the grand rhetoric at the UN and in European capitals this week will just be more meaningless hot air and further embolden Putin.
If Trump changes his view yet again, and Europe fails to deliver on clearing the skies of Russian drones and missiles, I fear war in Ukraine and throughout the continent may last for the next generation or two.
I had an extended chat (not in real time) on his private LI channel with the Colonel late last year. He’s a very courteous and straightforward man. We disagreed on some things, but just quite recently he has come out formally in favour of the NFZ for Ukraine. I posted the article.
I wasn’t (yet) able to swing him over to the idea of sending a division of British ground troops, but will keep working on it.
In his latest piece he seems to have modified his earlier position:
“Firstly, there must be a no-fly zone established by Nato, initially in western Ukraine to protect civilian targets. With the abundant F35s at Europe’s disposal, this can be achieved from outside Ukraine airspace with no chance that Russian fighter jets can entangle with Nato jets.”
This is too timid. A NFZ means that any putinaZi aircraft in Ukraine’s airspace must be shot down: simple as that.
Despite his recent pivot, Trump still runs a horriblly pro-russia regime. He’s not going to sanction a Nato NFZ. It will have to be done by individual countries and as a Budapest signatory, the U.K. should be the first to volunteer.
The problem with the NFZ is that RAF pilots cannot conduct patrols from their U.K. bases; too far. They may find that they can’t conduct operations inside Ukraine from the neighbouring countries either, because their govts may get cold feet about the increased risk of attacks on their civilian populations from savages.
It may well be necessary to install several squadrons of Typhoons and F35’s, with ground crews and masses of equipment, inside Ukraine. A complex task. Preparations for that should commence immediately.
“President Trump needs to provide much more long-range precision guided missiles, paid for by Europe, and take the shackles off what targets they can hit and how deep into Russia they can go.”
Agreed. But in order to win, Ukraine must kill orcs in quantities that make their filthy occupation untenable. Cluster munitions are essential for that and only the U.S. can supply them.