16.07.2025

We have the long-awaited speech by US President Donald Trump on Russia, which Senator Lindsey Graham announced as an event that will reach a “turning point for Russia and make Putin think.” The US will impose secondary sanctions on Russia and its trading partners if there is no agreement on Ukraine within 50 days. That is, Trump has once again postponed the imposition of sanctions against Russia and given Putin another 50 days for a ceasefire, which he will use for even tougher attacks against Ukraine. The American leader also added that the US and NATO have reached an agreement on the supply of weapons to Ukraine at the expense of the Europeans. The alliance will coordinate the supply. Among other things, Ukraine will supposedly receive 17 Patriot systems. The US President specified that NATO countries will send their own Patriots to Ukraine, and the US will provide these states with replacements.

In general, a specific and detailed list of demands and clear measures in case of their non-fulfillment was expected, but instead everything was postponed for “approximately” 50 days, during which it is necessary to “conclude an agreement.” Well, a number of threats were indicated, but without hard specifics. Instead, the tough sanctions package, which has support in the Senate, is already supposedly “meaningless.” At the same time, sanctions that will hit Russia’s energy sector and its customers, as provided for in the Senate bill, will harm Moscow much more than tariffs on a small amount of goods that Russia supplies to the United States. Not a single word was said about the possible confiscation of frozen Russian assets. This is a fundamental issue, no less important than sanctions and the shipment of weapons. If Trump decides to take this step, it would be a qualitative change in pressure on Russia.

It seems that Trump still does not want to quarrel with Putin, hoping to reach an agreement until the last minute. With his statement, the US President left open not even a window, but a window for Russia, noting that he expects practical steps in response from Moscow within the next 50 days. It seems that Trump still does not want to quarrel with Putin, hoping to reach an agreement until the last minute. After such statements, Putin will definitely not rush to make an agreement.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Volodymyr Ohryzko shared his thoughts on these and other issues in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.

– Finally, the expected statement of the US President regarding Russia, Vladimir Putin and possible actions in the event that the Russian dictator does not agree to the proposals for a ceasefire and peace talks without ultimatums was made. On the one hand, again: “I am not satisfied with Putin”, “we will impose tariffs”, and Ukraine will receive air defense and other weapons at the expense of Europe. On the other hand, we expected much tougher statements – in particular, regarding frozen Russian assets in the US, which would be a signal to Europe. And the sanctions package, which has already passed some preliminary approval in the Senate, but Trump stubbornly does not want to introduce it. How do you view these latest statements by Trump?

– Well, you see, of course, that we always want everything at once. This is, in general, good. And right. But unfortunately, it doesn’t work out that way. Because each country has its own interests. And we are trying to realize ours, and Trump – his. There is no need to be naive here. He acts based on what is beneficial to the USA. But, despite everything, let’s look at the situation more broadly. What has been announced – about the large-scale possibility of obtaining, say, the same Patriots, and not only them, but also other types of weapons that can really seriously affect the course of the war – is undoubtedly positive. Then, conditionally, the EU compensates it for this supply. That is, it pays for the systems that were transferred to Ukraine. And then the sending country orders new complexes from the USA. As a result, a kind of logistical and financial scheme is obtained: the supplying country loses nothing, receives new systems instead of the transferred ones, the USA – receives the order, Europe – pays, Ukraine – defends itself. And Trump can say: you see, I am helping Ukraine, and the American budget will only benefit from this. And from a formal point of view, he will be right.

That is, there is logic in this. Ukraine gets what it needs, the donor country does not remain empty-handed, the American military-industrial complex earns, and Europe invests money in real security. This is an effective scheme, if, of course, nothing breaks in it. NATO Secretary General Rutte, who has just visited Washington, has agreed that such a scheme will really be launched. That is, we can be sure: not tomorrow, but there will be weapons. And if there are weapons, Putin will have much less opportunity for air attacks. And if we are also talking about long-range systems capable of covering the depths of the Russian Federation, then we will be talking about the destruction of logistics. And without logistics, war is impossible.

– The general tone of Trump’s speech. On the one hand, the idea of supplying American weapons through NATO for European money is, indeed, a new approach for Trump. And on the other, these “50 days” that Trump voiced are actually a signal to Putin. Not even a “window of opportunity”, but an open door: attack while you can. Continue air strikes, pressure on the front – while the West thinks. And the Kremlin seems to have taken these statements positively. They expected tougher rhetoric – but got another “time-out”. Putin is unlikely to rush to negotiate after such statements. So how do we understand these “50 days”? Because before that there were other statements: “2 weeks”, “3 weeks”, “I will make a decision”. So Trump does not want to quarrel with Putin and thus leaves him room for maneuver?

– You know, Mr. Roman, this also looks like a game to me. Remember – Trump recently talked about his conversation with Putin, which supposedly took place in early July. Putin then said: they say, within 60 days he will attack, conquer, achieve his goals. And now Trump publicly responds: okay, you have 50 days to come to your senses. To come to an agreement. Because if you continue further – then “Tomahawks will fly at your head”. And not only at you, but also at your beloved St. Petersburg. That is, this can be a form of public warning, a kind of ultimatum. Now we only have defense systems so that Ukraine can defend itself from your strikes. But if nothing changes during this period – then there will be other weapons. The ones that will make you lose.

So yes, I agree: Trump does not want a total defeat of Russia. This is visible to the naked eye. He still lives in the illusion of some future partnership, someday, somewhere, with someone in the Kremlin. Not understanding that there can be no partnership with Russia. Therefore, now he has chosen a tactic: not to tear it completely, not to burn all the bridges. To leave room for maneuver. And then, they say, let’s see what comes of it.

– Regarding Trump’s statements and the list of what Ukraine is supposed to receive. What do you think: will we really receive all this weapons – in a month, in two, in six months? Trump can declare a lot – both negatively and positively – but very often it diverges from what actually happens later. And information has already appeared that not everything is so simple with what Trump said. For example, the Pentagon generally advised to contact the White House regarding the application for 17 Patriots for Ukraine. And the German Defense Minister said that the delivery of the first Patriot system will take several months: negotiations with the US are currently planned to purchase only two systems.

– I completely agree with you. The fact that chaos reigns in the US control system is no secret. This, as they say, is clear to everyone. Remember at least those situations when they discussed on the phone how to strike the Houthis. But let’s get back to the main thing. What did the head of the Pentagon say? In fact, the Americans are not going to give up their Patriots. At least, that’s how I read the statement of the Minister of Defense. They say that we need them ourselves, we keep them for our own needs. But – and here we return to the topic that we have just touched on – if some other country agrees to transfer its systems to Ukraine, the US will manufacture new systems for this country and deliver them to it. But – exclusively for European money. That is, I perceive this position of the Pentagon as follows: the systems will be there, but not from American arsenals.

– Then regarding the further action plan when the 50-day period expires. Trump apparently did not like the question of the journalist who asked: “Okay, 50 days will pass, Putin will not stop, will not implement your proposals, there is no ceasefire, the escalation in Ukraine continues – what will you do then?” And Trump, to put it mildly, reacted quite nervously, evading the answer. On the other hand, The Washington Post in its latest article provides details of Trump’s conversation with Zelensky. They say that Trump directly asked: “Why don’t you hit Moscow?” – in a tone as if he was sincerely surprised. Zelensky replied: “Give us the missiles – and there will be no questions.” And Trump supposedly agreed with this: they say, we also need to put pressure on St. Petersburg. So still – what will be the real action after these 50 days? Putin will not stop, that’s clear. There will be no normal negotiations. How do you see the development of events after this period?

– Everything will depend on what kind of weapons we actually get. Both from Trump and from Europe. If it is not only defensive, but also offensive weapons, then Putin will really have a dilemma. What to do? Or actually lose, because if you have nothing to fight with, then what? Then you will have to look for some other option. But he cannot admit defeat either – it is toxic for him. So there remains the imitation of something like negotiations. But this, in my opinion, is the greatest danger. Because our Western partners – and especially in Europe – for some reason believe that the main thing now is to start negotiations. That you just have to sit down at the table – and everything will work out.

In my opinion, this is one of the grossest mistakes imaginable. Because there is such a basic principle of international law – the principle of good faith. This means that the parties are negotiating with a real desire to achieve a result. But have you ever seen good faith in Russia’s actions? There was none, there is none – and there will be none. This is a constant. This is a fundamental fact. Even if they sit down at the table, from the moment the talks begin to something that Trump calls an “agreement” – the distance between these points is measured in years. Because the Russians are masters of dragging out the process for years, dragging it out, imitating it, without agreeing on anything. Therefore, I believe that no “Trump deal” will ever be reached. It is not in sight. Unless there is a complete collapse on the front – and then Putin may begin to understand something. But even then, remember, they always have a prepared scenario up their sleeve: they say, “a threat to the existence of the Russian state,” “we have nothing left,” and, therefore, “we can use nuclear weapons.”

I think that the result of all this will be a transition to nuclear rhetoric. And it will not only be the level of a crazy, half-drunk Medvedev or Zakharova. They will raise the temperature higher – they will release Gerasimov. Or Putin himself will come out and say that, they say, “this option is also being considered, because the circumstances threaten Russian statehood itself.” Blackmail will begin. So it is difficult to predict this situation. Therefore – the more offensive weapons we now receive, the faster, perhaps, something will shift in the position of Russia itself. There is no other option. And, thank God, the West is finally starting to understand this.

– You mentioned nuclear weapons. And the West is still afraid of these threats from the Kremlin? What about “let’s get the missiles and strike”? Because how many times have those threats been sounded – and we crossed these so-called “red lines”, and the West crossed them. And nothing.

– This is probably the last thing that the West is still really afraid of. And it is against this blackmail that there is, unfortunately, still no clear, consistent answer. Unless the West could reach a different level of responsibility and clearly say: if you apply it, we will apply it too. Then this would be a truly adequate response. But as long as they remain silent, as long as they keep their mouths shut, the Kremlin will continue to press on with fear.

Do you remember, there was a moment when French President Macron replied: “Why are you scaring us? We also have nuclear weapons.” And after that, all this rhetoric disappeared from Russian propaganda channels for a while. That’s what needs to be repeated. And more than once, and not only to Macron, but also to British Prime Minister Starmer, and to any of the key players. We need to say it bluntly: we will not give in to you, and our response will not be weaker, but perhaps even more powerful. And then we will see who is who. Because if you play one-sided pacifism, then this is definitely a loss.

– How long will this new rhetoric from Trump last? This ostentatious hostility towards Putin and Russia. Because even after the last statement, where Trump spoke about the supply of weapons, about potential restrictions for Russia, he, at the same time, called Putin a “tough guy”, a “cool guy”. He said that Russia is a big country, with powerful economic potential, it is interesting to work with it, it is interesting to earn money. In Europe, they are afraid that this rhetoric will not last long. That Trump is sending signals to Putin: they say, “don’t overdo it, and we can sit down again, talk and solve everything nicely.”

– Indeed, there is such a threat. And here it is important to be realistic. Not to build pink castles in the sand. Because I also believe: Trump does not want to completely break relations with Putin and Russia. What does this threaten? Exactly what you are talking about. Today – one thing, tomorrow – another, and the day after tomorrow – a whole third. And no one understands what is really happening. But if, say, there is already an agreement between the USA and NATO that NATO is buying American weapons for Ukraine – this is already a practical step. And these agreements are not with Trump, but with American business. If the contracts are signed and financed – it will be impossible to change it. Then we will get our weapons – regardless of what Trump says or does not say. And plus: let’s not forget that similar processes are also underway on the part of European NATO partners. If the American and European arms flows are combined – we will really get tools to influence the situation. Yes, for now, the supply of long-range missiles from Germany, France, and Britain has slowed down a bit. But I am sure that negotiations are continuing. Just in a non-public mode. This is not removed from the agenda. If all this comes together at one point, our capabilities will increase significantly. And Trump will see: Putin is holding back? Well, then he will fly – both over Moscow and St. Petersburg. And this will be logical and quite convincing. But predicting the unpredictable Trump, as you understand, is useless.

– Now about the negotiations between Russia and the US. They seem to have not stopped. Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Malaysia. And the State Department officially confirmed that the Russians had submitted “new proposals ” regarding Ukraine. And I wonder: could these new proposals really have somehow influenced Trump’s change of tone? Because the statement is clearly not the one everyone was waiting for.

– The only serious factor that can really affect the US today is enriched uranium. Because the US itself does not produce it in the required volumes. They buy it from Russia. I do not exclude that the Russian “proposals” included something like: they say, if you impose these draconian sanctions against us, we will stop supplying you with uranium. Well, a kind of exchange: you do not touch the economy, we do not touch your energy security. Let’s, they say, leave the economy out of the conflict, you earn, we earn. This is precisely what, I think, explains the 50-day delay. That is why Trump emphasized weapons, not the economy. That is why they started actively talking about the military aspect. Because replacing Russian uranium in one go is impossible. This is objective. But during these 50 days, most likely, the Americans will look for options on how to do it. If an alternative is found, then the remaining factors on Washington will not have such an impact. Because there is practically no other trade there. Only some critical minerals remain. And if this is also replaced, then I think the issue will disappear by itself.

– Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special representative, has arrived in Kyiv and will be there for a whole week. This, in my opinion, is a long enough visit to simply be limited to a “getting acquainted”. Obviously, there will be strategic talks between Ukraine and the US. What do you think could be discussed during these seven days?

– I think a day or two are political meetings: with the Office of the President, parliament, security forces. And then – visits to production facilities, defense enterprises. Because we are already talking about joint production. And we need to understand what resources are needed, where what can be accelerated. That is why Kellogg’s program is serious. This is what explains such a long visit. But I am sure that all this is only for our benefit. This is about real resistance. And, ultimately, about changing the situation on the front. And it is quite possible that this is what will be the focus of Kellogg’s attention here, in Kyiv.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/tramp-ta-evropa-roblyat-odnu-zhahlivu-pomilku-vipravivshi-yaku-mozhna-rozrahovuvati-na-uspih-intervyu-z-ogrizkom.htm