This week, “Newsweek” published a forecast by General Roly Walker, the new Chief of the General Staff of the British Army, analyzing the cost for Putin to completely conquer the four new “primarily Russian” regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Walker estimates it would take another five years and result in 1.5 to 1.8 million casualties, along with billions of dollars in lost military equipment. Despite the grim outlook, it appears Putin is willing to pay this price, literally buying soldiers for cannon fodder and continuously increasing the financial incentives.
An analysis by Kamen Nevenkin for BNT highlights that the 2022 mobilization was a major misstep for the regime, temporarily filling army gaps but prompting hundreds of thousands to flee abroad. The mobilization failed to ignite the expected patriotic fervor, prompting the Kremlin to resort to financial incentives. Local governors offer varying rates, with Moscow leading by offering 1.9 million rubles (21,000 US dollars) upon contract signing and over 2,000 dollars monthly, a substantial amount in Russia. This financial bait lures many naive individuals, often pressured by their families, into signing contracts.
However, few recruits realize the dire reality they face, with slim chances of survival against the powerful Armed Forces of Ukraine. Contracts are officially for six months but automatically renew every six months until the “special operation” ends. Putin currently recruits up to 30,000 “volunteers” per month, barely covering the losses. However, enthusiasm is waning, with reliable reports suggesting real recruitment numbers are closer to 20,000. The State Duma attributes this decline to the spread of information via social media and anti-Putin channels on YouTube, prompting a ban on mobile phones in battle zones and reduced YouTube speeds in Russia.
Rumors of a new, likely larger mobilization are spreading, with Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsimbalyuk predicting the war will be fought “to the last Russian.”
Gen Roly Walker is a hard-nosed fucker, like most senior military men. Unlike former elite soldier; Robin Horsfall, who always has great compassion for Ukrainian soldiers and civilians alike.
Walker said to the DT:
“‘Russia will want retribution’’
“Describing the potential threat in Europe, he said that however the Ukraine war ended, “I think Russia will emerge from it probably weaker objectively, or absolutely, but still very, very dangerous, and wanting some form of retribution for what we have done to help Ukraine.”
“By any measure, they have lost hundreds of thousands of casualties, and if they carry on as they are it’s going to take them five years just to take the Donbas.
“So that’s a hell of a price that they paid. And the lesson from history is that the Russians don’t forget, and they will come back to get their revenge.”
Speaking at the Royal United Services land warfare conference, Sir Roly added: “Each time you think Russia is down they come flying back.”
Robin simply does not even want to consider a putinaZi victory, whereas this guy does. I would prefer that he and his opposite numbers in other allied armed forces put their energies into formulating plans to ensure that the putinaZis simply cannot win.
A good start would be to provide the materiel to help the defenders kill orcs on an industrial scale. 3000/day would probably end the occupation.
It can’t be said often enough that this war could’ve already been over if it weren’t for certain individuals who simply should not be in their present position in such dire times. Their hesitance, lethargy, lack of foresight, and lack of courage is anything but helpful when there is a foe who is willing to burn his entire nation for a victory, even if it’s a pure pipe dream. Forget dialogue and compromises with mafia land. Once and for all. In over twenty years of putinism, the powers to be still haven’t learned that the shithole understands only one language from its interlocutors, and that is strength. Jellyfishdom only encourages them to act more aggressive, not less.