By Timothy Ash. Published April 3. Updated April 3 at 9:33 pm

It is notable in this Financial Times piece that U.S. players are now mentioning the prospect of sanctions moderation in the discussion of how to get Russia to the OPEC++ negotiating table. Admittedly it was also couched in the frame of sanctions potentially being tightened if Russia does not comply.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin’s game in this oil price war has always been to get the issue of sanctions moderation as center stage, and that seems to be the case. The Russian aid drop to the U.S. this week for COVID-19 also plays well for U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s hope for re-engagement with Putin — the guy just loves those Moscow hotels.

Interesting also this week that the Russia and Trump teams seem to be cooperating on things related to Venezuela, which I also think to be part of the big prize for Putin and Trump of bringing Russia back in from the cold.

There will though be no deal on oil unless Putin gets exactly what he wants which is firm assurances that sanctions will be rolled off, and he also wants Trump to bring him back into the A team of global leadership, G8, or even better some G2/3 leadership session – think Yalta II, where Trump and Putin can divide up the world into respective spheres of influence – read there Venezuela/Cuba for the US, Ukraine and the FSU space for Russia (maybe ex Baltic’s), Turkey for the U.S., Syria for Russia and agreements to divide up the spoils in Libya and the rest of the ME.

Putin’s desire to get this done quickly partially relates to the U.S. election cycle. He thinks any big picture deal with the U.S. has to be done on Trump’s watch and before a potential Joe Biden and Democrat victory come November as he thinks the Democrats will double down on Russia sanctions for Putin’s sins of the past.

When I say quickly, we are talking about Putin’s willingness to play this for weeks and months yet. But timing is crucially tied into the U.S. election cycle. So he won’t necessarily roll over this week, or next, but I sense he will want all this wrapped up by mid-year. I guess COVID19 will have to ease off to allow any great power style summit to process. But I would bet that, by September, Putin will want to have this all signed and sealed – and some big gesture/symbolic summit will be on the cards. Think Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev at Reykjavik.

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