Robin Horsfall. Aug 17, 2022
It is almost time for Ukraine to mount a major offensive, primarily for military reasons but for political reasons too.
The military aid that has been provided by the western democracies has reached the front lines. This, combined with Ukrainian will and courage has succeeded in halting Russian advances everywhere. Now that investment must be realised. Ukraine must take Kherson and force Russia back across the Dnipro River. This must happen soon before the autumn rains begin.
Politically, if there is not Ukrainian victory before autumn a stalemate will ensue and western investors (governments) will lose confidence. The supporting nations need a Ukrainian victory almost as much as Ukraine. Without such a victory it will be harder to justify the expense.
The ground work has been done, the weapons, skills, logistics and intelligence are in place or almost in place. It is time to advance and take the war to the oppressor with all the force that can be mustered. If Kherson falls then Crimea must follow.
The Baltic states have closed their borders. Russian people are now as imprisoned as they were under the terrors of the Soviet Union. Russian people have tasted freedom for a generation and they will not let Putin take it away from them. When Russian soldiers go home both living and dead they will carry a message of defeat that no amount of propaganda can deny. Russian soldiers grow weaker by the day, they want to go home. It is now up to the heroes of Ukrainian armed forces to give them what they want with HIMARS.
The terrible decision of when to attack is in the hands of Zelensky and his Generals. The risks are high but not as high as those incurred by waiting.
Slava Ukraini! It is time to win this war.
Who Dares Shares.
Robin Horsfall
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Spot on Robin, as usual.
I only wish his currently serving mates were out there lending a hand. Since 90% of their ops are secret and remain so, it is possible that they might be!
“This must happen soon before the autumn rains begin.”
I respect this guy, but he’s no weather forecaster. Winter in Kherson are the driest months. May to September is the period with most rainfall.
Robin is an excellent commenter for Ukraine, because he has no inside connections, no links there, nothing to colour his view. As a man from one of the best special ops outfits in the world, his opinion is worth hearing. Plus of course he hates putler and profoundly wants Ukraine to win.
He is probably referencing autumn rains metaphorically. In point of fact though it is actually wetter there in autumn than it is now; peaking in November. But really I think he just senses that the optimum time to get this vital job done is now fast approaching.
I am sure the commanders have their plans at the ready. I only worry about whether the allies have done their job properly and provided the defenders with EVERYTHING that they need.
Everything depends on the West. It will be suicide to go in without proper artillery support, or too few men. Ukraine have been on the ball so far and don’t expect them to attack until they know they can win.
Well I’m sure we all hope and pray that in addition to what is already known, that there will be extra, extremely unpleasant surprises for the orcs.
After what the nazi orcs have done I wouldn’t be at all upset if the Defenders shot them all in the back while they tried to cross the river and go back to Mordor. Let them float down the river and send a message to Crimea of what’s coming for them.
If the countries who provide military aid to Ukraine think that they NEED some sort of victory and convey this wish to Ukraine, it would be a grave mistake.
Ukraine has, thus far, done a spectacular job of not only preventing the cockroach army from taking all of Ukraine in mere days, as had been predicted in every capital, but has survived for six months of the bloodiest onslaughts since WWII. Moreover, it pushed the enemy out of several regions and even Snake Island and sunk its best warship. Its newest tactical and strategic moves in the south are worthy to be in any war textbook. They have grasped the initiative. Even the Crimea is in panic now.
I am confident that they know when, where and why they should attack … or not to attack. They know their weather, they know their terrain, they know where the cockroaches are concentrated at and where not. They know the capabilities of their enemy and of their friends and wannabe friends, and they know their own capabilities. If things are going too slow for anyone, let them give Ukraine needed material; planes, missiles, artillery, tanks!