Ukraine’s surprise attack on Russian soil may be short-lived but its value in the long term may be significant
Dominic Nicholls, ASSOCIATE EDITOR (DEFENCE)
12 August 2024 •
Given Ukraine’s repeated demonstration of its ability to adapt and innovate over the two-and-a-half years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, its breathtaking cross-border strike perhaps shouldn’t have been so surprising.
We have watched as, with seemingly boundless enthusiasm and determination, Kyiv’s troops – and the wider society that largely comprises this civilian-in-uniform army – have shown their ability to field and support the most sophisticated military hardware external allies can provide.
Even so, the scale of the imagination, preparation and execution needed to launch the first invasion of Russia since the Second World War has caught most observers unaware.
Of course, the observer caught most unaware, and with most to lose from Kyiv’s latest adaptation, is Vladimir Putin.
Already the incursion has sent the value of the ruble spiralling. He will be more concerned, however, for the three other reasons this Ukrainian assault could similarly impact his position at the top of the foetid system he has created.
First, unlike other border incursions by pro-Ukrainian outfits such as the Freedom of Russia Legion that seem more designed to grab quick headlines and selfies, this attack has done actual military harm to Putin.
Like all autocrats, a large part of his power is drawn from the idea that for all his myriad ills (which will be known, but selectively ignored by many out of self-preservation) he is best equipped to provide security; to keep the barbarians from the gates.
This Ukrainian seizure of around 1,000 square kilometres of Russian soil will dent that image. That is an outcome dictators can seldom survive if repeated.
So, not only will Putin insist Kyiv’s troops are forced off every inch of Russian territory, but he will also demand – possibly with a few senior sackings here and there (Gen Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s armed forces, is looking very vulnerable right now, having insisted after the initial incursion last Tuesday that everything was under control) – that no such episode ever happen again.
That gives Ukraine an edge to exploit and leads to the second thing Putin will fear.
A quick review of last week: Ukraine barged their way over the border through a clever combination of military tactics. They concentrated and focused their limited electronic warfare assets on blinding Russian reconnaissance drones and interfering with the radio networks that are vital in bringing order to the chaos of the battlefield.
Next, they pushed tanks and other armoured vehicles through this electromagnetic “black hole”, with their path cleared of enemy units by Kyiv’s own attack drones, operating in a similar fashion to the RAF’s Hawker Hurricane or US Mustang tank-busting aircraft in the Second World War.
Such tactics – and the surprise with which they were delivered – may not last for weeks, but they don’t have to; they have proven such things can be done. Therefore, if it can be done north-east of Sumy, why not elsewhere, at a time and place of Ukraine’s choosing?
In this way, Kyiv’s land forces can act in a similar way to a maritime strike force that has the ability to range up and down a coastline, the enemy never certain exactly when and where it will hit next.
Suppose next month, Russian troops on the border of Kharkiv oblast suddenly report a massive electronic warfare and drone attack similar to last week’s. Should they ignore it, or rush additional forces to the area in case of another Ukrainian border incursion?
What a very economical way for Ukraine to keep Russia guessing.
In all likelihood, it will force Russia to divert some assets from elsewhere, whilst minimising their own exposure to danger. There is some evidence already of Russian military units being taken from the Kharkiv and Kherson fronts to bolster the defence of Kursk. After all, Putin can’t allow any of the Motherland to be held by Kyiv, as earlier discussed.
In this way, Russian air defence, electronic warfare and anti-tank weapons may have to be redeployed back into Russia, not to mention the personnel to use them – the conscripts and Rosgvardia (a type of internal national guard) standing on the border won’t be sufficiently trained.
The third reason for Putin to worry is that Ukraine has shown the ability to employ a combined arms manoeuvre, whereby all the parts of the military orchestra – the tanks, infantry, engineers, and so on – can be made to operate in tune with each other and not descend into a mess.
This will give confidence not only to Kyiv’s forces and the folks back home, but also to the Western backers who can see a return on their investment of military hardware having been shown that this Russian army can be beaten in the field.
Then, against an increasingly loud backdrop of calls for negotiations, Ukraine may, like an Olympic sprinter deciding when best to turn on the gas for the final charge, plan another border incursion, in order to be sitting on a chunk of Russian land just as the ceasefire is called, thereby strengthening their bargaining hand.
The loss of ground in Russia’s southern border region may be limited and temporary, for now at least.
But the longer Ukraine’s forces are there, the greater the peril for the man who thought, 900 days ago, that he’d be in Kyiv in 72 hours.
Some interesting comments today from DT readers :
David Ward
For heaven sake, give Ukraine the tools they need to either finish the job, or at least bring Putin to the table with some serious and worthwhile compromises which will suit both sides.
Anything else will just help continue this festering and costly conflict indefinitely.
Matthew Bell
When will the great Russian people realise Putin is a weak tin pot corrupt little man who needs to be executed for stealing off them for decades and robbing Russia of its standing in the modern world? They need to get rid of him and join the modern world so
That we can all focus on the real enemy – China.
Graham Cove
I hope (and am sure) the Ukrainian elite units presently invading Russia will follow all international rules of war and treat the Russian civilian population kindly and well. Hand out food. Provide medical care. Steal nothing. No rapes or murders. No damage to civilian infrastructure.
Hearts and minds. Win them over. Explain what their own rabble of an army are inflicting on the Ukrainian people.
Wallaseyan Teal
There is a previling assumption that Ukraine will eventually have to withdraw under the pressure of Russian force, but why?
Ukraine could be intent on creating a “Bakhmut” for Russia in Kursk to draw Russian reserves into the cauldron for destruction.
Kiat Huang
The other advantage is a very loud message to Ukraine’s military allies:
To win this war we need to attack russia, not just defend against them. We’ve been repeatedly asking for permission to use our weapons – that you’ve donated – against offensive targets, inside russia, that are killing our people. Until you give that permission, we show you and the world what can be done.
Give Ukraine Nukes
Putin will be in bed, sleeping in the Fetal Position.
Ukraine has performed excellently, with the very limited Western aid, provided to them.
So: Let Ukraine have more, and totally finish Putin’s Russia (a regime that aspires to be like Russia’s former buddy -Nazi Germany) but far more accurately resembles, a House of Cards 😂).
As to what comes next? Not much can be worse than the world’s largest country dreaming of European land conquest. Better to have a Russia focused on mutual wealth & peace (and Putin ain’t the one to do it).
roger marley
Great article , i think Dom is referring to the Hawker Typhoon , known for its rocket firing tank busting ability . A Funny thing is i watched BBC news at 6pm tonight and no mention of what’s occurring in Russia when this could turn out to be the biggest European History event in in 80 years?
Tom Hanna
The RAF’s Hawker Hurricane was not a ground attack aircraft. It was a fighter and the mainstay of Fighter Command during the Battle of Britain. I think you mean the Hawker Typhoon, a brute of an aircraft probably the best of its type produced during the Second World War.
Dario O’Grady
The best way to drive this Ukraine rapid deployment home is to destroy the civilian traits of normality that Putin has promised, destroy the energy, water and sewage provisions so that those 200,000 Russians can’t go home but have to camp out on red square in front of the Kremlin begging for bunker grandpa to help them 😂😂😂
Auclan McIntyre
To my mind it’s the demoralising punch to Putin’s leadership and competence that counts the most. As for Gen Valery Gerasimov, he looks so permanently drunk I’m surprised he’s even realised there is anything wrong. Well, being sloshed dulls the pain. Of falling out a handy 7th floor window.
Slava Ukraine!
Mag Nificat
The Ukrainian initiative is the simple military tactic of don’t let your enemy fight you on their terms.
The Ukrainians will never beat the Russians head to head in the Russians choice of location.
So choose your own, take them by surprise, make them panic, exploit and learn their vulnerabilities.
If I was the Ukrainians I would head as fast as possible to Moscow and plant a flag.
That will give Poots more than he can cope with and the Russian people will ask what is going on.
David Blakeman
When this is all over a Putin has shot himself in his bunker the Russia People will be left to pay the price of allowing monster Putin to rule over them and invade a sovereign nation. Like the German people so happy with the victories and benefits sent home until the war came to their own neighborhood they must not be allowed to get off Scott free. A deputinisation every bit as tough as the denazification of Germany must follow, nothing less. Democratization of Russia will be a century long struggle and process and until it has been completed it can’t be trusted to run itself without proper and effective supervision.
I agree with Graham Cove. It might be difficult for some AFU soldiers to treat the warmongers better than their own relatives, friends, or whomever, but this would be the right tactic. As an example of how righteous this is, the Germans in WWII made a huge mistake by mistreating people that saw them as liberators. It made things much more difficult for them.
Commenter Matthew Bell asks :
“When will the great Russian people realise Putin is a weak tin pot corrupt little man who needs to be executed for stealing off them for decades and robbing Russia of its standing in the modern world?”
Probably never, because they aren’t “great.”
The actually like putler because of the “qualities” you highlighted, not despite them.
russia has no standing in the modern world. It’s “standing” is exclusively with squalid, evil dictatorships similar to that of the vile putler.
Only a tiny fraction of ruskeis are great. Foremost, those fighting for Ukraine right now.
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