Our complacent liberal assumptions are under threat as never before. We need to recognise the danger

IAIN DUNCAN SMITH

9 November 2023 •

Hamas’s brutal murder of at least 1,400 Israeli citizens and the taking of over 200 hostages a month ago was on a scale not seen before in Israel. It seems clear that the Iranian Republican Guard (IRGC) – as sponsors of both Hamas and Hezbollah – were heavily involved in this act. It is likely the drones used to break through Israel’s defences were provided by them: after all, it is Iran that has been providing the Russians with drones in Ukraine.

In light of this, I am astonished that the UK government still hasn’t sanctioned the IRGC, particularly as the USA and the EU have already done so. 

Yet if we take a step back from the conflict now ensuing in Gaza, what is becoming apparent is the evidence of growing linkage between a wide network of hostile states. What characterises them all is that they are authoritarian and anti-democratic, opposing human rights and the rule of law. 

At the apex of this new totalitarian axis sits China. 

In March 2023, President Xi Jinping and President Putin met in Moscow, reaffirming this shared agenda. China and Russia have further deepened the security and economic ties in this “no limits partnership”, particularly in defence, with relations “at an unprecedentedly high level.” Indeed, it is already active. As recently as August, Meta – which owns Facebook and Instagram – took down the biggest and most sophisticated joint Chinese-Russian influence operation ever detected.

China has also been arranging practical help for Russia. The recent agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow must have been greenlit by China – North Korea’s most critical ally. Now North Korea supplies armaments to Russia, particularly artillery shells, in return for intelligence and resources. After the G7’s condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Patrushev, head of Russia’s security council, met China’s top security official Chen Wenjing in Moscow. The Kremlin agreed to use the Chinese Yuan in oil trades – Russian oil re-badged and transacted and sold to China. This is also a win for China as it undermines the dollar dominance as the Petro-currency. In the last year, the scale of China’s imports from Russia grew, particularly oil and gas by nearly 49 per cent.

This cooperation between Russia, North Korea, and China, also extends to Iran. Iran is already supporting Russia with equipment, and beyond that is of interest to both China and Russia because of its dominance in the Shia crescent where most of the region’s oil and gas reserves are.

Furthermore, China is executing its plan to be an important regional player, slowly prising countries in the Middle East away from the US and Europe. Small wonder that President Bashar Assad of Syria met President Xi in Beijing in September, agreeing a strategic partnership and deepening ties between the two countries. Syria has already joined China’s Belt and Road initiative and is becoming more important to China as it regains its pre-eminence in Lebanese politics as well.  In March, Saudi Arabia joined the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, precipitating China’s brokering of the Iran-Saudi deal, followed by the Saudis’ announcement of a restoration of diplomatic ties with Syria. 

From the point of view of this new totalitarian Axis, this brutal attack by Hamas successfully smashed a key hope of the West: that through the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia and other middle Eastern nations were going to normalise relations with Israel. It also distracted from the war in Ukraine. Following the debacle of the Afghan retreat and the emerging divisions over Ukraine, they believe the West lacks resolve. 

They also see how the West is turning on itself, with culture wars erupting on all manner of issues, pitting one group against the other, eroding tolerance and responsibility. Worse, on our own streets, we have seen a re-emergence of hate-filled anti-Semitism.

I believe we have not faced such a dangerous moment since the ending of the Cold War. From genocide to slave labour, the West has turned a blind eye trying to deal with China as we hope it might be rather than as it actually is.

Our complacent liberal assumptions are under threat as never before. We need to recognise the threat of this new Axis and face up to it before it is too late.

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Sir Iain Duncan Smith is Conservative MP for Chingford and Woodford Green

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In Ukraine and Gaza, the West has chosen defeat

We’re in danger of missing a rare chance to inflict crushing military blows against our worst enemies

CON COUGHLIN DEFENCE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS EDITOR

9 November 2023 • 6:00am

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza might be very different in nature, but they also enjoy a number of striking similarities – not least the readiness of many Western leaders to capitulate to aggressors.

In Ukraine, the country is engaged in a First World War-style slugfest in a desperate fight to prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving his goal of eradicating the Ukrainian nation. Israel’s offensive to destroy Hamas in Gaza, by contrast, requires a far greater degree of military sophistication, particularly its efforts to destroy the network of tunnels that enables the terrorist group to pose an existential threat to the Jewish state.

Yet, while in both cases the Ukrainians and Israelis have every right to defend themselves against an enemy that threatens their very existence, all the indications suggest that Western leaders are ambivalent about providing the unequivocal support that both nations deserve.

The Biden administration’s hand-wringing over Israel’s military response to the atrocities committed on October 7 by Hamas terrorists is a case in point.

It is true that President Joe Biden has been keen to show his pro-Israel credentials, dispatching two aircraft carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean as a gesture of support. At the same time, his administration is desperately trying to organise a “humanitarian pause” in the fighting, even though any interruption to Israel’s military offensive would undoubtedly be to Hamas’s advantage.

Many will fear that Washington’s obsession with arranging a break in hostilities, no matter how brief, is part of a wider goal of implementing a ceasefire – a move that would be tantamount to allowing Hamas to get away with the appalling crimes it committed against the Israeli people.

And even if the Israelis do succeed in destroying Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure, the White House is already seeking to dictate the aftermath of the conflict before the fighting has even finished. Biden has declared his opposition to any Israeli “reoccupation” of Gaza, even if such a measure is required to keep the peace while a replacement Palestinian administration is established.

Meanwhile, the stalemate that has settled over the battlefield in Ukraine has prompted politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to refocus their efforts on finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which would inevitably result in a sell-out of the Ukrainian cause.

In Berlin, for example, the overwhelming political consensus appears to be that Ukraine should be divided in two, with Russian-occupied territory in the east being formally ceded to Moscow and the rest of the country being allowed to fulfil its long-held ambition of joining the EU.

A similar mindset increasingly prevails among policymakers in Paris and Washington, with the desire to bring the Ukrainian conflict to an end becoming more acute the longer the Gaza crisis continues. Western leaders, it appears, no longer have the bandwidth to handle more than one international crisis at a time.

The West’s reluctance to fully support key allies battling against brutal aggressors not only raises worrying questions about the ability of the Western alliance to protect its interests. It fails to grasp the strategic imperative – certainly insofar as our future security is concerned – of making sure rogue states and terrorist organisations are held to account for their crimes.
Any peace deal that grants Putin an inch of Kyiv’s territory would be a terrible betrayal of the Ukrainian people and the suffering they have endured in their fight for freedom. Implementing a ceasefire in Gaza before Israel has destroyed Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure would leave Israelis vulnerable to further attacks by Islamist fanatics.

If, on the other hand, Western leaders could grasp the importance of inflicting devastating defeats on the likes of Putin and Hamas, it would send a clear and unequivocal signal to others who are hostile to Western values and interests. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have shown that, despite the aggressive posturing of the Russians and Hamas’s Iranian backers, they cannot match the firepower available to the West and its allies.

The only reason this year’s Ukrainian offensive has faltered is not because of the inadequacy of Western weaponry, but because the West has only provided Kyiv with enough military hardware to defend itself, not to win the war. If, rather than focusing on capitulating to Moscow, Western leaders concentrated on increasing the flow of sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, the Ukrainians might find themselves in a position to inflict a devastating defeat on Russia, thereby negating the need for a peace deal.

The same approach should be adopted towards Israel and the battle against Hamas and its Iranian backers. Despite all the bellicose talk emanating from Tehran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, none of Hamas’s so-called allies have made any meaningful contribution to the terror group’s war against Israel. Backing Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas would certainly make them think twice before carrying out further attacks against the West and its allies.