01/15/2026
The situation in the Ukrainian energy sector is not yet completely fatal, but it is extremely critical. However, the president’s introduction of a state of emergency in the energy sector is a bureaucratic response to an extreme situation, when measures that should have been taken in preparation for Russian strikes on critical infrastructure were not taken.
So Zelensky’s decision to introduce a state of emergency is a compensatory reaction: we paid a lot of attention to various “peacekeeping diplomacy” instead of systematically working on the country’s defense and dealing with the issue of protecting critical infrastructure – not only energy, but also logistics, in particular, railway infrastructure. After all, everything is destroyed in an instant by a ballistic or other means of destruction, and it takes months or even more to restore elements of critical infrastructure, not hours, days or weeks.
It is difficult to imagine the practical implementation of the emergency regime. In general, all issues in the energy sector are resolved at the operator level, in this case Ukrenergo or oblenergo. And the operator does not need instructions from the ministry, because he already knows what to do.
What will happen next if the frosts continue and Russia continues to run out of energy? No one knows how long we will have to sit without electricity and heat. I would not like to point a finger at the sky and say “everything is lost”, nor would I want to assure you that it will pass us by and everything will be fine. Predicting the future duration of power and heat outages is a futile task. After all, in early December in certain regions, for example, in Sumy region, people were without electricity for several days. At the same time, in the west of the country, the energy situation is not ideal, but more or less problem-free.
Predicting that “Ukrainians will have to sit without light for 22 hours a day” is like measuring the average temperature in a ward: on average it is normal, but someone is dying from a high fever, and someone is already at a corpse temperature.
A few weeks ago, Odesa was without electricity, recently – Dnipro and Zaporizhia. Earlier – Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Tomorrow the most problematic situation could be anywhere, in any region of Ukraine. After all, Russia is taking systemic actions, using the factor of low temperatures to cause maximum damage to Ukraine.
However, Russia forgets one thing: the low temperature is not only in the territory of Ukraine, but also in the territory of Russia. Moreover, the territory of the Russian Federation is located further north, and this territory is within the reach of the weapons of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk have already felt it. But there are other northern Russian large cities, where the weather conditions are more extreme, and Ukraine has the opportunity to reach them.
The energy situation in Ukraine is getting downright dangerous. I hope Ukraine can keep on clobbering the mafia state’s energy sector to return the favor. They have more to lose, being even colder than Ukraine and by having an already dilapidated and delicate infrastructure.