Oct 12

They gave up on ‘plausible’ a long time ago.

Russia has blown a hole in the undersea gas pipeline that connects Estonia to Finland. Only Russia had the motive, capability and opportunity to carry out such an attack. The pipeline is in water fifty metres deep and is coated in concrete. To get to it unseen, a nation needs high tech’ submarines and technical knowledge of underwater explosives. The motive for Putin is revenge against Finland for joining NATO and a hope that Finland will run out of fuel in the coming winter. This will also push up the price of gas and help Russia to slow down its impending bankruptcy.

Evidence of an explosion was detected on seismometers, it was not an accident. A new gas pipeline is being laid to Poland and so this attack is a direct threat to all new infrastructure that is being developed to replace Russian hegemony over European supplies.

The damage occurred outside territorial waters but is inside Finland’s economic exclusion zone and is an attack on a NATO country. This is an unpleasant thought. Of course, no one will make a direct accusation against the obvious perpetrator. Russia regards such prevarication as a weakness. While they lie daily and commit atrocities in Ukraine, Africa and Syria and indirectly Israel, western leaders will require evidence that will prove who committed the crime. They don’t really want it. If proved, it will ask questions they would rather not answer.

Everyone knows who committed the crime. The longer NATO leave it before they say so, the more advantage Russia gains from the doubts that creep in, courtesy of our own media. Nations with submarine capability will be accused of damaging their own allies. Before long the west will be blaming itself.

Crazy? It’s what happened after the attack on the Nord Stream Pipelines.

NATO does not want a direct military confrontation with Russia. Jens Stoltenberg the Secretary General of NATO has made a firm statement promising a serious response if evidence is discovered that show who the culprit is. That evidence will not be forthcoming. Investigators will prove that the pipe was deliberately damaged and that explosives were used but just like Nordstream, that will be as far as any evidence goes. Russia will rely on ‘implausible deniability’ they gave up on ‘plausible’ a long time ago and we will try to avoid escalating the war.

The timing of this coincides with the attack on Israel, this is not coincidental. The more distractions Putin can create the more confusion will result.

Russia did it, I know it, you know it, Russia knows we know it, but we must pretend we don’t!

Slava Ukraini!

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Robin Horsfall