Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Svitlana Moronets

Jan 10, 2025

Just ten days remain until Donald Trump enters office – and ten days until he ends the war in Ukraine in ‘24 hours’. Such was his pre-election promise. Yet now Trump says he needs at least until Easter to hold talks with Vladimir Putin, let alone reach a ceasefire. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s choice for a special envoy to Ukraine, confirmed that he will help the president to broker a solution for the war 100 days out from inauguration. It seems the ‘unstoppable’ Trump is beginning to grasp that ending this conflict is far from simple.

We know little of Trump’s plan. This week, he has expressed sympathy with Russia’s position that Ukraine should not join Nato. ‘That’s been, like, written in stone,’ Trump said. He accused Joe Biden of supporting Ukraine’s Nato membership, even though Biden consistently opposed it. Russia’s invasion wasn’t about Nato: the war began in 2014, when Ukraine was neutral and only 20 per cent of its population supported joining the alliance. Now that has surged past 80 per cent, as Ukrainians see Nato as their only hope for lasting peace. But that dream is slowly dying: Trump made it clear that this is off the table.

It’s disappointing how little understanding the American leader has about Putin’s real reasons for waging the war in Ukraine. Putin believes that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state. He wants to deprive Ukrainians of their language, culture, history and the right to choose which alliances to join. In Russian-occupied territories, even a bracelet in Ukrainian colours can lead to imprisonment, torture or death.

Ukrainians had been told not to take Trump’s words too seriously: presumably what he says in public is not always what he thinks. But such reassurances are wearing thin. Trump and his team are yet to criticise Russia directly, but Ukraine is always the one to blame for asking for aid. This week, Donald Trump Jr. even linked California’s devastating wildfires to US support for Ukraine, ignoring firefighters’ explanations that staffing shortages – not international aid – are to blame (the Los Angeles Fire Department donated boots, hoses and medication to Ukrainian first responders in 2022).

The Kremlin feels optimistic about Trump’s return. Putin’s press secretary has confirmed today that the Russian president is open to a dialogue with Trump but there are no concrete plans for a meeting yet. The Kremlin’s terms for peace remain unchanged: Kyiv must be neutral, shrink its army and give up four of its regions to Russia. Zelensky, on the other side, demands security guarantees for Ukraine and asks Europe to deploy its troops to monitor the battle line after the ceasefire is sealed – though it’s hard to see Putin agreeing to that as Nato soldiers stationed in Ukraine look like Nato membership-lite. Zelensky also refuses to give up 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory to Russia.

When both sides want the opposite things, it’s hard to see peace coming soon. Putin’s forces capture more than eight square miles of Ukrainian territory per day so there is no reason for them to stop. Ukrainians still hold a chunk of Russia’s Kursk region – a leverage Moscow can’t allow Zelensky to have. Don’t expect a quick resolution. There will be no miracle on 20 January – only more war.

In pictures

Zaporizhzhia: Victims of the Russian bomb attack on the city wait for medics to arrive. At least 13 civilians were killed on Wednesday and more than 130 injured. (Credit: Ivan Fedorov, governor)

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Quote of the week

‘People need to understand, he [Donald Trump] is not trying to give something to Putin or to the Russians, he’s actually trying to save Ukraine and save their sovereignty… And he’s going to make sure that it’s equitable and it’s fair.’

– Keith Kellogg, Trump’s choice for special envoy to Ukraine, said he will help the president to broker a solution for the war 100 days out from inauguration

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The war in numbers

Ukrainian men exempted from mobilisation

900-950,000

According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal

UK and Latvia to send drones to Ukraine

30,000

The package is worth £45m

Europe bought a record amount of Russian LNG last year

17.8m tonnes

Some 2m more than 2023

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Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• The US has announced new sanctions on Russian oil producers and 183 oil tankers of its shadow fleet.
• Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a deployment of British and French troops in Ukraine to force Russia into peace.
• The EU is ready to lead support for Ukraine if US backing wanes, the EU’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas has said.
• Russian forces are just one mile from the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, where the situation is being described as ‘very difficult’.
• Ukraine’s national police is conducting more than 600 simultaneous searches nationwide to uncover those smuggling abroad men of draft age.
• Kyiv is negotiating with the US to obtain licences to manufacture air defence systems and missiles on its territory.
• Ukraine has received less than half of US aid allocated during the full-scale war, Zelensky has said.
• Ukrainian drones have hit a Russian oil depot serving an air base for Russian strategic bombers in the Saratov region.
• A French army official has confirmed that several dozen Ukrainian soldiers deserted while undergoing military training in France.
• Some 52% of Ukrainians trust Volodymyr Zelensky while 39% don’t, according to a poll last month.
• An ex-FBI informant who falsely accused the Biden family of taking a bribe from a Ukrainian business has been jailed for six years.
• Ukraine has offered its citizens abroad defence industry jobs and draft exemptions if they return.
• Hungary and Slovakia have threatened to block Ukraine’s EU accession over energy transit disputes.
• A Russian victory could push US defence spending to more than $800 billion to prevent further aggression in Europe, research shows.

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Wider reading on the war

Volodymyr Zelensky’s interview with Lex Fridman – YouTube

How Russian political elites feel about the full-scale invasion of Ukraine dragging into 2025 – Meduza

Inside Trump’s Pentagon ‘purge’ amid retreat on funding Ukraine – The Times

As Russian losses in Ukraine mount, Putin faces ‘devastating’ demographic timebomb – Kyiv Independent

As the Trump’s presidency nears, Ukraine’s army is on the defensive – Washington Post

A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

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