Despite Russia’s failures, Kyiv hasn’t won yet – and the biggest worry is support draining from the Western powers

CHARLES MOORE 26 August 2022 • 9:30pm

My family brought me up on a late-Victorian book called An ABC for Baby Patriots. Its comic rhymes and pictures were a gentle satire of Britain’s imperial pretensions.

The entry for N said: “N is the Navy we keep at Spithead. /It’s a sight which makes foreigners wish they were dead.” The illustration showed French and German generals shaking like jellies as they surveyed the line of grey British battleships stretching to the horizon.

Such conspicuous displays of power matter to empires, embodying the might which maintains them. Right now, it helps to remember that Russia is an empire, particularly so in the mind of Vladimir Putin. Indeed, his own justification for the war which he began in 2014 and took to new intensity six months ago, is an imperial one. Ukraine is Russian, he says. If you disagree, he claims the right to kill you.

Killing people is something Putin’s armies enjoy. Ukraine admits to more than 9,000 soldiers dead. Informed guesses suggest that more than 50,000 Ukrainian civilians have died from Russian shelling and shooting.

But how is the great Russian Empire doing? Its love of torture and murder has not got it very far. It was quickly defeated in its primary aim – the occupation of Kyiv and removal of President Zelensky. Its action was based on a misjudgment, not only of tactics, but also of the democratic, independence-loving nature of its victim – an error typical of arrogant but declining empires.

Since then, Russia has edged forward, but oh so slowly. Since May, the Ukrainians estimate, it has conquered only 1 per cent of the 20 per cent of Ukraine which it occupies – a hundredth of a fifth. They also calculate that this indecisive conflict has killed about 45,000 Russian troops. That second figure could be an overestimate, but the trend is clear. The Russians traditionally overwhelm by weight of numbers. This time, those numbers have not overwhelmed their opponents.

Where are the conspicuous displays of Russian power? The Black Sea fleet was supposed to make the Ukrainian top brass wish they were dead, but it is Ukraine, with its early sinking of the cruiser Moskva and its later recapture of Snake Island, which is winning the naval “optics”. This month, US-supplied Himars rocket launchers (and possibly special forces operations) have destroyed vital Crimean supply depots. Where is the exciting amphibious operation that was supposed to conquer Odesa? The Russian fleet skulks in Sevastopol.

Where are the innovations that great powers usually produce in war – new Russian bombs, submarines, guns, jets, radar, cyber methods? Where are the crack regiments and the inspiring generals? Quite often, they are dead. The elite Russian paratroopers who attacked Hostomel airport near Kyiv were beaten back in their key first assault.

What about hearts and minds? Russian governments never forget the decisive role of First World War conscription in fomenting the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. They dread its repetition. In February, a “special military operation” to squash “neo-Nazi” separatists seemed acceptable to many Russians, but it is something else to mobilise the entire nation. Putin is being forced to edge towards this.

The Moscow area produces few army recruits. The cannon fodder are drawn from poor countries within the empire, such as Dagestan. This supply is running low. It is not much fun living in a Russian satrapy these days. How long will Belarus remain in that condition if its Kremlin-backed dictator Lukashenko falls? Russian satellites like Kazakhstan have proved notably unenthusiastic about the war.

There have not been many Russian diplomatic victories either. Just before things got going, Xi Jinping foolishly declared that China’s friendship with Russia “knows no limits”, but he quickly found plenty.

Those Western experts, such as ex-general Sir Simon Mayall or former air marshal Edward Stringer, who claimed early on that Russia was losing the war, are being vindicated. The Stringer comparison was with the Battle of Britain. No territory changed hands during that fight, he pointed out, but British resilience persuaded the Germans they could not win. Endurance brought victory.

No such expert declares Ukrainian victory yet, however, remarkable though Ukraine’s achievements are. As James Sherr, of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, says, Putin is “determined to subordinate Ukraine or wreck it”. If the former fails, the latter could still succeed.

John Gerson, professor at the Policy Institute of King’s College London, with a Foreign Office background, fears Russia might resemble a drunken lout falling on a kitten in his bed: “The kitten scratches and bites him ferociously, but he is too drunk to feel pain, and when he wakes up in the morning, the kitten is dead.”

The biggest worry, though, remains the attitude of the West. Terrible though this war is, it has awoken many of us. One of Putin’s many miscalculations – probably one of Xi’s too – has been to think we are too weak to resist. He was nearly right – the most extreme example being the Germany that Angela Merkel left prostrate before Russian gas, the most recent being President Biden’s shaming scuttle from Afghanistan.

Not for the first time, however, dictators underestimated democracies. It was American and British intelligence that pre-empted Putin’s invasion plans by revealing them. British training, going back several years, was crucial to Ukrainian readiness when the dreadful day came. Germany, despite its historic aversion to confronting Russia, is changing. Nato and even the EU have been galvanised. Money and weapons – though never enough – have reached Ukraine just in time.

Will it last, though? Of the Nato allies which do not border Russia, only Britain under Boris Johnson – and, coming soon, Liz Truss – seems fully to understand that Ukraine needs our total backing, not just out of pity for its plight, but for European and global security. Elements in the US administration, led by Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser, seem content with “stability”, which implies a deal with Putin, rather than “security”, which requires his defeat.

In Putin’s imperial doctrine, what he calls “anti-Russia” – his equivalent of the anti-Christ – has two aspects. One is Ukraine itself; the other is the West as a whole. Ukraine is no more his last territorial demand than was the Sudetenland when Hitler promised it would be. For Putin, the post-Cold War European settlement has to be overturned, the Western-dominated world order upended. So the wider world is watching this contest, and will side with the victor.

Putin fights this global battle by weakening the West’s will. In this, his energy threats are more potent than his menacing nuclear mutterings. Most of Europe feels dependent on Putin’s mercy – a quality he does not possess. Elected governments now face political crises because of the cost of both heating and eating. As winter approaches, the test of will becomes sharper.

Face him down, however, and new vistas open. Despite the depth of the present crisis, energy supplies never dry up for long. By next year, a Europe no longer dependent on Russian energy will be a continent liberated. Russia will be correspondingly impoverished.

At this moment, the greatest danger to the West is the school of thought that considers itself “realist”. Russia is a perennial power, it says. It is entitled to its interests. Let’s talk to Putin and make Ukraine accept a “sensible” deal. Far from being realistic, such an approach ignores reality – what Putin is already (quite horribly) doing, and why he is doing it. We must not prop up the perennial power of this crumbling empire. We must support its defeat.

……………..

Selected comments from DT readers:

Sue Norminton:

“As usual, Charles Moore has it exactly right.

Supporting Ukraine should be the top priority of every western nation. 

Our own security depends so much on a Ukrainian victory.”

Gail Forsyth:

“Russia today is the equivalent of Nazi Germany.

The West should treat it the same way.”

Martin Mitchell:

“The usual suspects are out in force. A fine demonstration of how badly things are going for Vlad the Magnificent and the Kingdom of the Orcs….”

Reply from NoLonger ATory:

“I believe orcs were fictional characters if you mean Russians then say Russians.”

Mr Mitchell replies :

“It is an acronym. Odious Russian Criminal Scum. Any association with the vile murderous creatures of fiction is entirely in the mind of the reader.”

Geoffrey Kolbe:

“The final paragraph could have been written in 1938, of course, substituting Germany for Russia and the Sudetenland for Ukraine. It is the shame of appeasing Hitler then that galvanises British feelings now.

As for Britain “doing its bit”, the British have been training the Ukrainian army and that has no doubt been of huge benefit. But as for material benefit, I learn yesterday that the UK has so far sent 16,000 rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. On current consumption, that would last Ukraine about four days…. 

The truth is that we probably do not have much more than that in stock. In all the major conflicts we have been in during the past thirty years, we have run out of ammo of all sorts within a few days and had to urgently buy up supplies from wherever we could get it. By contrast, what Russia has in its artillery ammo dumps is unknown, but it certainly runs into millions.

Drawing parallels from 1938 again, Charles Moore is wrong about Russian fear of general mobilisation. In 1941, after the surprise attack by Germany, the government passed a new military service law where all male citizens from the ages of 16 to 28 were liable for military service. We need to be mindful that Russia has the ability to turn up the heat of this war from its current low-burn, and get our own military industrial complex in gear.”

Member of the public :

‘The wider world is watching this contest, and will side with the victor.’ India is watching, Iran is watching, North Korea is watching, African states are watching, China is watching. Everyone who studied the rise to power of the Nazis for A level history can analyse for themselves how wars spread and dictators rise. The tidal wave of Russian troll comments below show the resources the Russian propaganda machine is throwing against Charles Moore, who is a champion of our freedom.”

Pseudo Nym;

“The only way this will/can end now is with the end of Putin. Only then can everyone involved be able to pretend to wipe the slate clean and move on, which will become the prime motivator soon, even for the Chinese. Putin is a ‘man out of time’ in so many respects. Clearly he thinks with a early 20th century mentality, something I feel is deeply incompatible with Chinese plans for global domination by stealth; their attack dog seems to have gone rabid and is becoming a bit of an embarrassment, opening up people’s eyes to the true nature of its owners. All totalitarian mindsets only ever engender utter mass misery, and very few out of many have secured political and social longevity. Those who think they can make a deal with the devil to ensure stability rather than security are living in fantasy land.”

Gene Freeman:

“Well said, Charles.

It doesn’t help to see appeasers like Lord Dannat and Richard Kemp attribute credibility to Putin and seek to pour cold water on Ukrainian ambitions to win.

HIMARS et al have already changed the entire course of thd war. This must be reinforced and built upon without hesitation.”

Richard Lloyd-Jones:

“In a comment file on this question a few days ago the general reaction was one of shameful withdrawal of support for Ukraine, mostly by those who blame rising energy costs on our commitment. They resented money spent on arms for the defence of the invaded county. Most did not understand, or want to understand, that Ukraine is at the forefront of defending European and our democracies.

Hopefully these were untypical of DT readers and the country generally. All the same, it might mark the emergence of a new and dispiriting trend. That is why politicians and the media should be wary of slipping into Ukraine fatigue.”

Jonathan Karmi:

“Well said Lord Moore. Russia is the nearest thing to Nazi Germany in modern times. Its regime and its army has zero regard for human life and actually revels in death and destruction. Its regime spouts endless lies. They’re pathetic and laughable, but the regime’s behaviour is no laughing matter. Russia is rotten to the core. Anyone with a conscience and human dignity has left or is in prison. It’s imperative that Western governments tough the current crisis out. That means shelving Net Zero until Ukraine has achieved victory. We must get our priorities right.”