Alexander Topchy20:40, 08/13/237 min.205

It’s time to start taking the potential breakup of Russia seriously.

A number of analysts see the collapse of the Russian Federation as a possible consequence of the catastrophic war unleashed by the Russians against Ukraine.

While the world would be better off if Russia were significantly weakened, its collapse may not go smoothly. 

The Hill writes about it .”Being a minor state under severe international sanctions and deprived of its resource base in Siberia, [Russia] will have very limited opportunities to attack its neighbors,” said Janusz Bugaisky of the Jamestown Foundation (US non-governmental research organization – UNIAN ) .

As a result, “NATO’s eastern front will become more secure; while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will return their occupied territories and will petition for integration into the European Union and NATO without fear of Russia’s reaction,” the expert adds. Moreover, “the countries of Central Asia will also feel more and more free.”

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius takes a darker view: “A fragmented, demoralized Russia is the devil’s playground… Russia’s domestic turmoil is a major dilemma for Putin, but also very dangerous for the West.”Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is in the sweet spot, but leans towards Ignatius. 

She writes that, on the one hand, “the Kremlin will contend with … a deepening crisis in Putin’s leadership, a growing lack of political accountability, an increasingly ineffective response from the authorities to new challenges, increasing fragmentation among the elites, and a society that is increasingly anti-establishment.”

On the other hand, while “the world will have to contend with a more dangerous and unpredictable Russia,” it is likely that “this turn inward could lead to a more pragmatic approach to the war against Ukraine.”

“Bugaisky’s optimism comes from his focus on post-collapse Russia, which is a fragment of an internationally controlled state that lacks the economic and military resources necessary to carry out imperialist plans.

The pessimism of Ignatius and Stanovoi comes from their focus on the process of Russia’s collapse, which, under the best circumstances imaginable, would be very confusing.

They worry about a less predictable Russia that is likely to be more dangerous,” writes The Hill.

The publication notes that Bugaisky is right in arguing that a grain of Russia, reduced to the territory bounded by St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod, will immediately cease to be a major geopolitical player and, therefore, a threat to any of its neighbors – especially if the latter unite with West. 

Life in this country may be poorer, but it is also likely to be safer and more secure.And even if big Russia retains all of its nuclear weapons, it will not be able to use them except in the highly unlikely event of a coordinated attack by its neighbors.

But Ignatius and Stanovaya are also right to worry about the path to the final collapse of Russia, continues The Hill. 

Putin has fallen into a trap and may be tempted to take desperate measures. Former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, judging by his reckless messages, may be insane – and, alas, he is not alone in his madness. 

The Russian elites are fragmented and disunited, they lack a cohesive and consistent vision for the future of their country; no one knows what to do with the catastrophic war against Ukraine.

Russia’s internal disorder and unpredictability – is it a problem?

The publication notes that Russia has been in turmoil for 30 years. True, Boris Yeltsin’s years in the 1990s were particularly difficult, but Putin clearly failed to build a cohesive society and a functioning economy. 

A repressed society may be more malleable, but it is not cohesive and stable.A dirigiste economy may allow the authorities to direct resources to whatever projects they want, but that doesn’t make it any more functional. 

According to The Hill, Putin managed to build a stronger regime and state, but this success was deceptive. 

Increasing the power of coercion while allowing the bureaucracy to act rudely and confiscate rent does not strengthen the state, but is a great way to promote corruption and promote self-enrichment.In other words, post-Soviet Russia has always been, in Stanova’s words, “full of internal contradictions and conflicts.” 

The difference is that now they are visible.“Post-Soviet Russia was also unpredictable. Who would have thought that Yeltsin would open fire on parliament? That an unknown KGB officer would become his successor?

That this unknown KGB officer would blow up several houses inhabited by hundreds of Russians to consolidate his power? and then release Mikhail Khodorkovsky? That he would start a war against Ukraine in 2014 and escalate it in 2022?

That he would not crack down on the mercenary coup leader who spearheaded the failed coup attempt? Putin has always been valued for his ability to beat and surprise the West. What is this if not unpredictability?”, – asks in the article

The Hill.Russia’s neighbors and the West have been living with a highly unstable and unpredictable Russia for three decades now. Whatever the reasons for this state of affairs, the likelihood that Russia will suddenly get rid of its instability and unpredictability and stop the slide towards disintegration is practically zero.

According to Bugaisky, Ignatius and Stanova, instability and unpredictability are a product of Russia’s internal affairs. 

Thus, they will continue to go their own way, regardless of what the West or Ukraine does.All the West and Ukraine and Russia’s other neighbors can do is win the war, isolate themselves from Russia’s lawlessness, and imagine what would have to be done to make Bugaisky’s vision enduring.

The collapse of Russia – other news

As UNIAN reported earlier, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that the West should start preparing for the collapse of the Russian Federation , which was not done before the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to him, Russia has weakened and is in danger of falling apart, this will happen within the next three to seven years.Previously, a significant number of leading foreign policy experts have said that Russia will become a failed country or fall apart before 2033 . Most experts do not believe that Russia and NATO will enter into direct military conflict over the next decade.

(c)UNIAN 2023