Valery Pekar entrepreneur, public figure, publicist, lecturer at Kyiv-Mohyla Business School10:37, 24.03.25

It seems that the new American administration has some special feelings towards Russia. There are many reasons that contribute to this.

Every American administration, starting with President George W. Bush, has tried to reset relations with Russia. It has never worked, and relations have only gotten worse. But each successive president believes that he is the one who will succeed, because he is the best negotiator.

Added to this is the desire to repeat President Richard Nixon’s success in breaking the link between Russia and China, only now in the reverse format. Nixon managed to tear China away from the USSR, but this was at a time when Soviet-Chinese relations were deteriorating. China is now deeply integrated into Russian affairs and largely controls them, so the desire is futile.

The transactional approach to international politics attracts the American administration with Russia’s vast natural resources, which can be used to make profitable deals.

The old world order has been broken, and the US is actively breaking it, although it previously tried to preserve it.

Russia looks like a country that has become a battering ram for the destruction of the old world order, as Comrade Xi noted. In other words, the interests of two countries coincide here (even three, because China is also interested). If it is possible to end the war with benefits for Russia, then the United States will be able to launch similar wars of aggression (sorry, special military operations).

Another area where the interests of the US, Russia and China coincide is the weakening of Europe and its separation from America. For China, this has generally been one of its main foreign policy goals, unattainable for decades.

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To many Americans, Russia appears as a defender of traditional values ​​in a postmodern world, a true Christian country standing up to the postmodern agenda they hate. Americans and Russians feel that their countries are similar in some ways. Vast expanses of land, conquered by brave pioneers and cleared of unwanted natives, and so on. Americans don’t like empires, but they don’t consider Russia an empire because they know almost nothing about it.

Add to this the personal sympathies of the two old authoritarian leaders. I assume that Trump is jealous of Putin, who managed to destroy hated institutions and concentrate power (although it took more than a decade). It seems that Putin is simply teasing and flattering Trump, which looks like “live recruitment.”

Americans love it when David defeats Goliath. True, they consider Russia to be David, the bearer of the weak blessed truth. And they consider NATO, led by themselves, to be Goliath, the stupid heavy force that opposes the Russian Federation (this is where the talk about the war being provoked by NATO expansion comes from). Ukraine is simply not in this equation.

Similarly, Americans sympathize with Israel (I won’t go into the reasons here, there are many) and project this sympathy onto Russian-Ukrainian relations — only the analogue of Israel here is Russia for some reason, and Ukraine is a kind of Gaza, a source of constant problems. (Similarly, India sympathizes with Russia, because for them it is an analogue of India, and Ukraine is a kind of Pakistan, militarized, hostile, subversive, harmful.)

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For Americans, Ukraine is also a rebellious province that needs to be brought back home. They compare the Russian-Ukrainian war to the American Civil War, where good northerners must defeat bad southerners and finally restore order to their lands.

There are almost no people in the new American administration who really know anything about Russia or Ukraine, and traditional “think tanks” now have no influence. Russia has been investing in propaganda on American soil for decades, which cannot be said about Ukraine. Traditional flaws of “Russian studios”: working off Russian money, worshipping “great Russian culture”, etc.

Americans, and not only them, consider the world system of major players to be stable, and its changes undesirable. Large nations have more rights, primarily the right to zones of exclusive interests. They are never defeated (false). They cannot be punished by significant sanctions, embargoes, confiscations, trials of leaders, and lowering of status in international organizations.

Thus, we are dealing with deep roots.

The vast majority of the problems described above are shaped by long-term trends in American politics, not by the leader’s personal preferences.

And all of the above leads to a gradual migration of American policy from supporting Ukraine “as much as necessary” to the position of a mediator (seemingly logical if you want to promote a peace agreement) and then to the position of unilateral pressure on the weaker party, because it (i.e. us) looks not only more compliant, but also wrong.

A single point about using Russia to confront China would be enough, and the collapse of the Russian Federation would make this goal unattainable and significantly strengthen China – the realization of this unites Republicans and Democrats in the USA. (Here I want to emphasize once again: the collapse of the Russian Federation is approaching, but we are not dealing with obvious signs of rapid disintegration, but with a monotonous function of the slow decline of imperial “scraps” that can hold the empire together for quite a long time, but not indefinitely: one day the function will fall below the waterline, and the Russian imperial ship will quickly sink; this may happen after a rather significant period of time, so we need to live until that moment.)

I wrote back in 2022 that the day would come when the US would stop supporting Ukraine against Russia and start supporting Russia against Ukraine. Fortunately, an alternative is now emerging in the form of Europe. What should we do? The list remains the same:

1. Increase Ukraine’s capacity, primarily through significant changes in the governance system, which does not correspond to the scale of the challenges.

2. Strengthen relations with Europe – our allies there.

3. Remember that all of the above applies only to half of the US. Support for Ukraine remains quite high. Do not fall into anti-Americanism, cooperate with our friends in the US.

4. Try to gently and gradually change the picture of our enemies in the US. This will take time, but someone has to do it. There is something to be said for each of the above points.

5. Redouble efforts to decolonize the Russian Federation: no Russian Federation, no problem.

Valeriy Pekar, entrepreneur, public figure, publicist, lecturer at Kyiv-Mohyla Business School

(C)UNIAN 2025