Marta Gichko13:32, 05.05.26
A shortage of Patriot missiles and a war with Iran could jeopardize Ukraine’s defense.
In the United States, some officials believe that Ukraine will not be able to survive even a few days without international military assistance, Foreign Policy reports, citing diplomatic sources.
A key element of Ukraine’s defense remains Patriot missiles, which can intercept ballistic targets. But they are in dire short supply. European officials estimate that Ukraine needs up to 2,000 of these missiles each year, while Kyiv has only received about 600 in the past few years.
In addition, interception efficiency has decreased to approximately 25% due to adaptation of Russian attacks.
The situation is complicated by the war with Iran. It is estimated that the US has already used up almost half of its stockpile of Patriot missiles to protect against Iranian attacks.
This could further limit Ukraine’s supply options, especially given other priorities – including containing China in Asia.
Production problems
Even increasing production won’t solve the problem quickly. The latest PAC-3 MSE missiles take up to 42 months to produce, and annual production volumes remain limited.
Alternative systems, such as SAMP/T, are also unable to fully meet Ukraine’s needs due to low production rates.
The Trump administration has changed its approach to aid, selling missiles to NATO allies who then transfer them to Ukraine under the PURL program. At the same time, Vice President J.D. Vance previously said that cutting aid to Ukraine was one of the steps the White House was proud of.
According to sources, Washington may use the supply of weapons as a tool to pressure Kyiv.
Europe is trying to compensate
European countries have the financial resources to purchase weapons after approving a large-scale aid package.
However, even with the money available, the problem remains – critical systems such as Patriot are only available in the US.
Despite the pessimistic assessments of some American officials, diplomats admit that Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to withstand.
“Some believe that Ukraine will not last even a few days without support. But it has proven many times that it is a force to be reckoned with,” one of the European diplomats noted.
(C)UNIAN 2026
“Some believe that Ukraine will not last even a few days without support. But it has proven many times that it is a force to be reckoned with,”
mafia land thought that Ukraine wouldn’t last more than a few days. These analysts need to stop comparing Ukrainians to their citizens, especially Americans.
I think after the November elections Trump will not last even a few days anymore.
“Patriot [is] only available in the US.”
Also produced in Germany by MBDA, and in Japan by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
(And it was announced that parts for the PAC-3 MSE missiles would be produced in Poland, by Poland’s Military Aviation Works 1.)