22.11.2023 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Ukrainian marines occupied three bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region. Thanks to mortars and artillery, we managed to advance 3-8 kilometers deep into the territory. And this is the maximum distance at which our Defense Forces can establish fire control. Yes, they have HIMARS installations, but unfortunately, they are not enough to organize massive strikes against the group of the Russian occupation army. Moreover, the occupiers are actively using aviation here, while Ukraine has still not received the promised F-16 fighters.
During a visit to Kiev, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said that there is no “magic wand” in this war. In particular, he assured that neither the F-16 nor HIMARS by themselves mean anything. But this is not true at all. There really is a “magic wand”, and this is a systematic, complete and timely supply of weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian army. This opinion was expressed by military expert Vladislav Seleznev in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Question about the fire control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces over part of the left bank of the Dnieper. In your opinion, to what depth and how can it be provided?
– Fire control is provided by means of destruction. These could be mortars, artillery pieces or aircraft. We have quite serious problems with aviation, we physically do not have a sufficient number of aviation assets, so the main means of destruction and, accordingly, support of the Ukrainian marines who operate on the left bank of the Dnieper are our mortars, mainly 120s, and our artillery guns.
Moreover, artillery pieces have already allowed Ukrainian units to advance in different sectors of the front on the left bank of the Dnieper to a distance of 3 to 8 kilometers. Accordingly, our marines are unable to advance further. Perhaps these distances determine the maximum capabilities of Ukrainian artillery units. Obviously, we have HIMARS type MLRS, but their number is limited in order for us to be able to deliver massive strikes.
Nevertheless, even in such conditions, three serious bridgeheads have been created. This is already open information. This is stated by the Marine Corps command. There is information that they were created in the area of the Antonovsky road and railway bridges and in the area of \u200b\u200bthe village of Krynki. Fierce fighting is going on there.
But I rather carefully assess the prospects for the development of the Ukrainian offensive on this section of the front. Why? Resources. Because in order to advance further, we need armored vehicles, including tanks, on the left bank. There we need air defense systems and artillery systems. How to move all this equipment, all military-technical elements from the right to the left bank? The answer is obvious. A bridge is needed.
Four bridges that previously existed on this section of the front were destroyed by the enemy army last fall, when it fled from Kherson and its outskirts. Establishing a pontoon-bridge crossing is a very difficult technical task, because the right bank is separated from the left by a thousand meters.
Accordingly, one question is how to establish this crossing, and the second is how to ensure its functioning and safety, its stability from the influence of enemy aviation and enemy artillery. There are no answers yet, because in order for us to be able to drive away enemy planes from the Dnieper in this part of it – and we remember that the enemy often uses guided bombs – we need a powerful air defense system or F-16 fighters.
We do not have enough air defense, and we do not have F-16s at all. This means that in order for us to be able to drive away enemy artillery as far as possible, so that not all of its components can deliver artillery strikes at a future crossing, it is necessary to increase the size of the bridgeheads, that is, to move deeper into the enemy’s defenses. Which is also impossible to implement yet, because there are no armored vehicles to move forward. There are also no artillery support weapons to attack the enemy’s front line of defense.
As we see, often the implementation of some tasks is associated with the need to solve other problems in the same format. They directly depend on each other.
– On November 20, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv, and on November 21, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius visited the capital of Ukraine. Do you think that there could be a direct connection between these visits and the events on the left bank? Austin also made an interesting statement. “There’s no magic bullet to resolving a conflict like this war. So F-16 or HIMARS or whatever it is, it’s how you use those capabilities and integrate and synchronize them for effect on the battlefield.” “, – he said.
– Mr. Austin is somewhat reticent. The fact is that there is a “magic wand” on the battlefield. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, speaks about this. This is a systematic, complete and timely provision of the needs of the Ukrainian army for the implementation of the missions entrusted to it.
If Ukraine had received both F-16 fighters and ATACMS missiles in a timely manner, the success of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the battlefield would have been more pronounced. Accordingly, when Lloyd Austin declares that there is no “magic wand”, but at the same time announces the next package of military-technical assistance to Ukraine at the level of $100 million, it is necessary to understand that these figures are not comparable with the level and intensity of hostilities .
We remember cases of one-time military assistance at the level of one billion dollars or more. Now the volume of supplies is several times less. Therefore, we probably shouldn’t talk about some kind of military-technical advantage on the battlefield, and even less so about the possibilities for the Ukrainian army to have that very “magic wand”.
The intensity of hostilities requires the use of a huge amount of artillery ammunition, but in the package of military-technical assistance we will receive one – I emphasize, one! – multiple rocket launcher system of the HIMARS type. Accordingly, so are the missiles for it. Can one MLRS system seriously change the situation on the battlefield, given that the front length is 1,450 kilometers? The answer is obvious. No.
Therefore, when we listen to statements of this kind, it seems to me that this is public rhetoric for an unknown audience, which covers up other non-public negotiations.
Somehow Western partners began visiting Ukraine more often. Let me remind you that Austin was also in Kyiv with the head of NATO forces in Europe, General Cavoli. It’s very interesting what we’re talking about. But also very symptomatic is the statement of a number of German experts who say that as soon as the fighting on the territory of Ukraine stalls, Russia will have six years to prepare a large-scale war against NATO.
– And yet, in your assessment, in what direction is this war developing today? How will events develop if there are sufficient and timely supplies of military aid to Ukraine and if they remain at the current level?
– The effectiveness of the Ukrainian army’s actions will directly depend on resource capabilities. It is impossible to fight against Russian tanks with bare hands. We tried to do this in May of last year. The level of Ukrainian losses during that period was off the charts.
Therefore, it is obvious that, having sufficient weapons, equipment, and ammunition, the Ukrainian army will be effective not only in defense, but also during counter-offensive and offensive measures. Otherwise, we will face serious losses, military operations in strategic defense and, quite possibly, territorial losses.
That is why it is important to convey to our respected Western partners that the Russian Federation and Putin himself will not limit themselves to aggression against Ukraine. If Ukraine succumbs to this attack and falls, the next target for Russian attacks will be Eastern Europe.
Putin’s focus will be on the Baltic countries, the countries that were part of the Warsaw Pact. The eastern part of Germany will also be a target and priority for the military campaign of Putin’s army.
“Accordingly, one question is how to establish this crossing, and the second is how to ensure its functioning and safety, its stability from the influence of enemy aviation and enemy artillery. There are no answers yet, because in order for us to be able to drive away enemy planes from the Dnieper in this part of it – and we remember that the enemy often uses guided bombs – we need a powerful air defense system or F-16 fighters.”
Yo, hold on there, partner! The Yellow House said you don’t need F-16s and you have everything you need for the offensive.
Seriously now, what can I say about all of this? We have stupidity in mafia land, and we also have stupidity in Washington. In between are the Ukrainians, who, with tenacity, intelligence and foresight, try to survive.
Building a pontoon bridge is never a simple task. It makes it more difficult when having to cross so much water. Protecting such a fragile structure is an entire different ballgame, especially when you hardly have an air force to speak of.
“There’s no magic bullet to resolving a conflict like this war. So F-16 or HIMARS or whatever it is, it’s how you use those capabilities and integrate and synchronize them for effect on the battlefield.” “, – he said.”
I quite like Gen. Austin. He has a quiet dignity and has established good relationships with the Ukrainians.
But because of the trickledown weapons policy and absurdly overblown “let’s not escalate or upset putler” policy, he seems maneuvered into crappy statements like this. Several times; probably egged on by Biden administration members, he has said to putler: “we won’t be dragged into your war”, which sends out the wrong message to the rat fuhrer.
The facts are these (sorry to repeat an old mantra) :
Ukraine needs to wipe out 4 orcs for every Ukraine human lost; just to maintain parity.
The winning formula is 8-1 in Ukraine’s favour. There are signs that they are getting there.
Take out 3000 orcs each and every day and the occupation becomes untenable.
I agree with Gen Hodges that Crimea is the key and must be retaken ASAP.
To achieve the above : more HIMARS launch pads are needed. They are compatible with all ATACMS variants too). A LOT more. (Info suggests that the defenders have only 18).
1000 ATACMS; all variants, including cluster equipped.
At least 300 more MBT’s and the same number of Bradleys.
20 squadrons of F16’s.
Mine clearance equipment.
Many more Patriot systems.
At least 50 more pieces of modern artillery.
At least 10 divisions of fresh combat troops.
Nothing less will do.
little naive question:
at the bridgeheads, how deep is the river? width is 1 km I think.
Does it freeze in winter?
It depends on the temperatures in the winter if it freezes over, and not all stretches will freeze at the same time, naturally. The river is max. around 8 meters deep. The depth is irrelevant for pontoon bridges.
On average the Dnipro freezes to around 40cm. Hardly enough for light vehicles, let alone tanks.
thanks for the answers. I was wondering about a DIY bridge with floating concrete caissons like for June 6, 44. whether to sink or not, but which must be easy to produce in numbers… (still naively)
No problem. Not everyone knows about pontoon bridges.