12/14/2023

The Russian occupation army sent 40 thousand troops, in fact an entire army, to storm the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. This settlement is not of particular strategic importance, but the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, made a big political bet on it, because he hoped that there would be a reason to boast about military successes at the same time as he announced his participation in the next “elections.” in Russia.

However, the right moment for this has already been missed. Realizing that Avdiivka cannot be taken in the near future, because the third wave of the enemy’s offensive has been virtually drowned. The Kremlin dictator may give the order to reduce the intensity of offensive actions in this direction. The fourth wave will be advisable only immediately before the “elections” – in March 2024. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major of the Armed Forces of UkraineAlexey Getman.

– According to information in the press service of the Tauride Defense Forces, as of December 11, the invaders did not abandon attempts to enter the territory of the Avdiivsky coking plant. Our defenders defeated the enemy every time as soon as he approached the fence; the occupier’s losses were colossal. In your estimation, how will events in Avdiivka develop further?

– Let’s remember that the enemy concentrated a large number of armed forces there, up to 40 thousand people. In fact, it is an army. They are trying to storm Avdiivka from three directions – from the north, south and east. They had a “deadline” December 14, because it was assumed that it was on this day that Putin would announce that he was going to the polls again. Now the “deadline” postponed to March 15, on the eve of the vote itself, an election without a choice.

Therefore, one can hope that the power of attacks will decrease. The fact is that the military component of the capture of Avdiivka is not so great. Even if the Defense Forces have to withdraw from Avdiivka, nothing will change strategically on the front line, not to mention the Russian-Ukrainian war. There was a powerful political background here, but it is no longer there, because Putin has already announced his participation in the elections.

This third wave of attacks on Avdiivka is already fading. I think that it will choke completely, and we will not have to withdraw the garrison from Avdiivka. I think that if there is a fourth wave, it will be closer to mid-March 2024. But this is just my guess, simply based on the logic of what is happening.

Such a number of people can be kept if the object has very important strategic significance or some other significance, in this case political. Avdiivka has no strategic significance, there is no political motive, which means why keep troops there? I think everything will return to the state it was before October 10, when this all began.

– Weather conditions have already worsened and are not conducive to active hostilities. However, we see that the enemy continues to actively attack in the east. Why is this happening?

They don’t choose anything. They are given orders, sometimes meaningless, and they must carry them out, because there are also blocking detachments there that do not allow them to turn around and avoid an attack. They even practice executions there for refusing to go into battle to the death. People are starting to protest that they are being used as cannon fodder.

And as for bad weather conditions that affect something… It’s as if there are some different people at the front than you and me. When it rains heavily, and also with snow, when it blows in your face, you will also feel uncomfortable performing any actions. You won’t even want to walk your dog. And there, at the front, our defenders are also uncomfortable. Especially when you spend the night away from home, you don’t go out for a walk, but sleep in the trenches, sometimes with wet feet. If you don’t get out of this mud for a day, a week, a month, it’s very difficult, because you have to hold the defense or conduct combat operations.

But it is also very inconvenient for Russians to move through mud. Anyone who has been to the east knows how dirty it is. It really sticks to the boots, so they weigh one and a half kilograms each. It’s hard to even walk there.

This affects active combat operations, and not just equipment. She simply won’t get through there, they’ll get stuck, sit up to their bellies, and that’s all. This is the main reason, and not some conspiracy theories.

– In the south of our country the weather situation is better, but the enemy has become more active there too. The occupier hit Kherson from the left bank. What do you think the situation will be now with the consolidation of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Dnieper?

The situation has not changed since our units began to be there constantly, changing positions and trying to knock out the enemy. How will weather conditions affect this? If it starts to rain heavily, what should you do there? If you go out in a car – the car gets stuck, if you go out in a tank – the tank gets stuck.

But the enemy has aviation, artillery, and missiles. We also have aircraft, artillery and missiles that are independent of soil conditions.

– They don’t depend. That is why artillery duels and counter-battery warfare continue. Even the President said: if we cannot move by land, we will move by air. Our aviation, our missiles, our artillery must work.

– To sum it up, we can say that in the coming months, at least in unfavorable weather, it is impossible to talk about any progress?

– Advancement is possible, but it cannot be made so fast and over a long distance. Let’s imagine: an assault unit advanced 5 kilometers and stopped there. A simple question: what will the men eat there? Where will they get ammunition for machine guns and everything else? People do not carry 5 bags of ammunition and 10 bags of food. They are lightly armed so that they can move quickly. Therefore, supplies must be brought there. But how to do this if there are no roads and any vehicle will get stuck?

https://war.obozrevatel.com/tretya-volna-atak-na-avdeevku-zahlebyivaetsya-chetvertaya-pod-voprosom-intervyu-s-majorom-getmanom.htm?_gl=11uoqtrw_gaMTI1ODcwNjQxNC4xNzAwMjk2NDUx_ga_JBX3X27G7H*MTcwMjU4OTAxOC42My4wLjE3MDI1ODkwMTguNjAuMC4w