6.12.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Syrian rebels have rapidly burst into the information space, launching an extremely successful offensive that is still gaining momentum. And it seems that the world media, against the backdrop of the Syrian blitzkrieg, has begun to pay less attention to the topic of the war in Ukraine, which, of course, only harms us.
Well, let’s try to figure out how far-reaching a breakthrough by the Syrian rebels could be and how it would affect the situation in Ukraine.
The course of the offensive
The offensive of the Syrian resistance, which began on November 27 and was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters, was hardly unexpected. Frankly speaking, the leaders of a number of groups that are part of the Syrian resistance boasted of their preparations for it a few weeks before it began. This once again indicates how haphazardly Bashar al-Assad’s troops – the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) – reacted to the announced threat.
The rebels’ initial focus was Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo. In the past, the Syrian Arab Army, but primarily Russian troops and the Wagner PMC, as well as Iranian proxies, conducted a bloody operation to take control of it over months.
Resistance forces established control over the city on November 30, and from December 2 to 3, the process of clearing Aleppo was completed. And on December 5, the rebels took another large city located on the key Syrian highway M5 – Hama.
What the SAA achieved over the years with the total assistance of Russia and Iran, HTS and other groups were able to do in less than a week of fighting. And a week later, the resistance forces’ zone of control exceeded 9,000 square kilometers.
It is obvious that the rebels, inspired by the results, do not intend to stop, and their next goals will be: Homs – the last major city on the way to Damascus on the M5, as well as overcoming the mountain range to Latakia and Tartus.
In addition, the resistance, having reached the mountain range and established control over the heights, will be able to create serious problems for Russian aviation stationed at the Khmeimim air base – not only by shelling it from a distance with rocket artillery, but also by creating obstacles to flights along old routes.
In fact, in Syria we have seen what was recently widely discussed in Ukraine – the collapse of the front. Those who have forgotten about the Kharkiv operation could see on a concrete example what a collapse of the front with access to the conditional rear area in a matter of days is. And taking into account the trends, despite some slowdown in the advance of the resistance forces (which is not surprising – taking into account the need for control, as well as the clearing of occupied territories), the offensive will continue.
In my opinion, it is in the Homs area that the resistance forces will slow down, and there they will have their first serious problem with the resistance of the SAA. But this city will not become an impregnable fortress, and after some time the offensive on Damascus will continue.
A separate issue in this story will be the depth and openness of Turkey’s further participation. After all, it is she who takes care of the HTS and many other groups that are part of the resistance forces. It was the Turkish military that planned this offensive operation, trained the rebel units, provided them with equipment, weapons, and at the first stage in the western regions of the Aleppo province even fire support. This is more than obvious, and it is pointless to hide it, so the appearance of Turkish military in the liberated territories is a matter of time.
And now what worries us most is the impact of the Syrian operation on the situation in Ukraine.
The Syrian factor
Surprisingly, many people ignore the topic of events taking place in Syria, or cover it superficially. The main argument is that this country is far away, that we have nothing to do with it, doesn’t it have its own problems or what? In fact, the offensive of the resistance forces in Syria is directly related to the war in Ukraine. And I’m not talking about the schizophrenia of Russian propaganda about some “Ukrainian trace” in Syria.
As soon as the offensive began, Bashar al-Assad immediately went to Moscow to bow to Vladimir Putin. There is nothing surprising in this, because it was thanks to the Russian troops introduced into Syria in 2015 that Assad not only managed to stay in power, but also, drowning the country in blood, regained control of part of the territories. It was the Russian troops that became the decisive factor in preserving Bashar al-Assad’s power, not Hezbollah or the IRGC.
Meanwhile, Russia in the Syrian operation maximally promoted the capabilities of its army, raised the authority of the Russian Armed Forces and Air Force, and organized ostentatious carpet bombings and missile strikes. Confronting the rebels, who do not even have banal MANPADS to counter even attack helicopters, Russia created a false reputation for its troops – this myth played in its favor for many years, until it launched a full-scale war against Ukraine.
And now Russia must help Bashar Assad with troops. But it cannot do this, because to do this it would need to pull something out of the combat zone in Ukraine, weakening one or another section of the front, or use reserves, which are also necessary and in short supply.
Will Putin help Assad with troops or not? More likely than not, but it plays into our hands, because Syria is a colossal reputational blow to Russia. Russia now looks helpless and humiliated, unable to help Bashar Assad. And this impotence and weakness is seen by everyone – both Russia’s partners and its antagonists. But most importantly, it is also seen by the one whom Russia has been trying to convince all this time that it should not be argued with, but negotiated with, and only on its terms. We are talking about Donald Trump, of course.
The last months (and especially the coming ones – until Trump’s inauguration) have been and will be used by Russia for only one purpose: to show with its offensive in Ukraine that the Russian Federation has enough resources to fight for years, and the offensive will never end. And if so, then the Russian troops can only be stopped by agreeing on Moscow’s terms.
But the offensive of the ROV is not going exactly according to the plan that was conceived by the highest military-political leadership of the occupiers. Yes, the offensive continues, but without significant achievements at the operational-tactical level. Tactical victories, small villages and forest plantations, cities (not even regional centers, but of district significance) – all this can hardly be called a devastating and epic offensive, if analyzed without emotions, but rationally and judiciously. And then there is the slap in Syria.
Russia is presented in an exceptionally unattractive light. Not in the way Putin would like to present it to Western leaders – and the Syrian offensive will only drag the Kremlin’s efforts deeper into the quagmire.
That is why the events taking place in Syria are extremely important for us, and despite the distance between our countries, the influence on each other is extremely great. After all, if Russia had not been so weakened by the war in Ukraine, it would have certainly sent several dozen Il-76 planes to help Bashar Assad in the form of Ryazan boys jumping out of moving aircraft with the cry “For VeDeVe!” – and the offensive of the resistance forces would have had a completely different effect. Meanwhile, the Syrian blitzkrieg can also be useful to Ukraine.
But the offensive of the ROV is not going exactly according to the plan … Yes, the offensive continues, but without significant achievements at the operational-tactical level. Tactical victories, small villages and forest plantations … – all this can hardly be called a devastating and epic offensive, if analyzed without emotions, but rationally and judiciously.”
Not to mention the very high costs to capture these plots of land and small settlements. Any other army would be horrified! But, ignoramuses think that the roach army is winning. Let them dream their fantasies.
“And then there is the slap in Syria.”
I think Syria is more of a political and moral blow to the muscovy Nazis, rather than having any real military benefit for Ukraine … unless the Nazie divert resources to Syria.
Putler has thrown Assad under the bus, just like he threw Armenia under the bus.
I wonder if the other mafia buddies see it this way.
Nope, I doubt it.