Ekaterina Girnyk16:48, 04/27/24

As Forbes writes, it is “already a foregone conclusion” that the Ukrainians will lose several villages around the Ocheretino axis.

The Russians are moving reinforcements to Ocheretino , where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are desperately trying to avoid a retreat because it carries too many risks, writes Forbes .

“The situation of the exhausted Ukrainian brigades in this area is desperate. It is safe to say that the Ukrainians will lose several villages around the Ocheretino axis,” the publication writes.

However, the real danger is a situation in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have no choice but to cut losses, retreat several kilometers to the west and re-establish a foothold on a new defensive line.

“This retreat could result in the surrender of tens of square miles of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or face brutal occupation. Worse, the retreat – if executed poorly – would provide the Russians with the opportunity to double down on local attacks and achieve a second, third or fourth breakthrough, which, like a chain reaction, could provoke a larger Ukrainian collapse,” the article says.

Forbes notes that all Ukrainian brigades are struggling to hold defensive positions under incessant shelling, and an imbalance in firepower could prove decisive during the battle.”

The Russian command transferred the 15th and 74th motorized rifle brigades, as well as units of the 90th tank division and special forces, to their original positions. They are opposed by at least seven Ukrainian brigades and a separate battalion: the 23rd, 25th, 47th, 100th and 115th mechanized brigades, the 25th air assault brigade, the 3rd assault brigade and the 425th th assault battalion. Brigades typically deploy one battalion at a time.

Thus, the Russian occupiers number more than 10,000 troops in or near the salient, facing only 3,000 Ukrainians.

It is easier to defend than to attack, even if the attacker has an advantage in firepower, so the Russians are not guaranteed to win the battle and force the Ukrainians to retreat, the publication believes.

“Having penetrated five miles into Ukrainian territory, the westernmost Russian forces are essentially alone and far from major supply lines. They are vulnerable. If Ukrainian forces manage to starve them out before Russian reinforcements expand the salient and strengthen logistics, the Russians may lose this fight,” Forbes writes.

Although such an optimistic outcome is possible, the option in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to fight a retreat to the west seems more realistic, Forbes believes.

(C)UNIAN 2024