A new wave of raids on oil refineries, which have hit all major refineries in the past two weeks, threatens a return of the fuel crisis in Russia, with queues at gas stations and rationing of vehicles.
The Ukrainian campaign, which began in late October and affected at least nine refineries—from Siberia to the Baltic Sea—could have paralyzed capacity producing approximately 55% of all gasoline in the country, estimates Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russia and Eurasia.
The attacked refineries could have suspended production, given the recent widespread attacks, he believes. During the quiet month of October, when Ukraine suspended strikes due to pressure from the Donald Trump administration and restrictions on Starlink services, Russian oil producers were able to produce fuel. However, this volume likely covers only about a week’s worth of national consumption, Vakulenko estimates.
Over the past two weeks, all five of Russia’s largest refineries have come under drone strikes. On November 11, the Omsk Oil Refinery (with a capacity of 22 million tons per year) was attacked
, and on November 9, the Kinef plant in the Leningrad Region (21 million tons). On November 5 and 3, respectively, UAVs struck two large refineries supplying Moscow: the Ryazan Oil Refinery (17 million tons) and Slavneft-YANOS (15 million tons per year). On November 1, UAVs attacked Lukoil’s NORSI near Nizhny Novgorod (17 million tons), the second-largest producer of motor gasoline; on November 13, the Volgograd Oil Refinery (14 million tons). Drones also targeted Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery (8.3 million tons per year), Bashneft-UNPZ (6.6 million tons), and the Afipsky Oil Refinery (7.2 million tons).
According to Reuters sources, as of November 10, compared to the end of October, oil refining volumes in Russia had fallen by 30%, to approximately 500,000 tons per day. Since then, refineries in Volgograd and Omsk, which together account for more than 12% of refinery capacity, have been attacked.
While the Ukrainian campaign in 2025 resulted only in inconvenience and expense, in November 2026, the threshold at which troubles and inconveniences “become major problems” may have been reached, according to Vakulenko: “If Ukraine is capable of launching repeated attacks on Russian oil refining with the same scope and intensity every two to three weeks for several months, this will create a fundamentally new reality for the functioning of the Russian economy.”
Attempts to protect refineries with anti-drone nets, steel cables, and even shipping containers have proven ineffective, sources close to Rosneft previously told Bloomberg. Russia’s largest oil company, operating 12 refineries that account for a third of the country’s oil refining, has suffered more than others from drone attacks. Its main refinery, the Ryazan refinery, has halted fuel production at least four times this year and has yet to fully recover. The Syzran refinery has been either completely idle or operating at a third of its capacity for almost the entire past six months. The Tuapse refinery, the only one on Russia’s Black Sea coast, has not returned to operation since its shutdown in April.
Repairing the refinery’s secondary units, which produce motor fuel, is becoming a problem: due to sanctions, Western spare parts are unavailable, and Chinese and Russian equivalents have to wait months for delivery, often incompatible with existing equipment, Bloomberg sources told us.
Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries at least 120 times. In the summer, oil refining volumes in the country fell to a 20-year low.
(c)THE MOSCOW TIMES 2026