06/29/2025

The occupying country Russia, during the summer offensive campaign in Ukraine, is trying to solve the main problem: the complete capture of the Donetsk region within its administrative borders. However, two months after the start of the campaign, the enemy realized that he had not managed to complete even the first part of the task – the capture of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. The second stage involved the formation of a bridgehead and the subsequent movement to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In the current situation, the enemy has taken a pause to regroup, change approaches, and search for the “key” to the Ukrainian defense. This pause may last about two weeks. Then the enemy may become more active again, in order to achieve its goal in the Donetsk region, albeit with a delay.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Andriy Kramarov .

– According to South Korean intelligence, Russia may transfer DPRK forces to the territory of Ukraine in order to be able to conduct offensive operations in several directions at once. According to the Institute for the Study of War, this may lead to a certain “breakthrough” on the front. Do you agree with these assessments? Could a large number of DPRK forces be on our territory?

– This information has been clarified. We are talking about an additional contingent that North Korea is allegedly ready to send to Russia in the amount of 6 thousand people. Last year we already saw 10 thousand. We have also already seen the effectiveness of the North Korean military.

Perhaps, in some of their strategic calculations, the Russians do not exclude such a possibility. But they need to involve a much larger number of North Korean soldiers, they need a corps of at least 30 thousand or even 40 thousand. In addition, this is an army that speaks a different language. Therefore, all this is very difficult.

The Russians may be considering them as a certain additional mobilization potential. In strategic plans as well. But for us, the greater threat is not North Korean soldiers, but the supply of North Korean equipment to Russia, which allows the Russians to compensate for their production problems.

– By the way, regarding technology. Due to the strikes by Israel and the US, another ally of Russia, Iran, has suffered significantly. Do you think that today it is already possible to put an end to military cooperation between Iran and Russia?

– It is impossible to put a cross, because the strikes by both Israel and the US were mainly aimed at the Iranian missile production infrastructure. First of all, operational-tactical missile complexes, which can be potential carriers of nuclear warheads, as well as at the infrastructure that was an element of the nuclear program, uranium enrichment, etc. Yes, there was information that in the first days Israel struck the main centers of production of “Shaheeds”, but it was not confirmed.

So, the only result we can see from this in a certain long-term perspective is that perhaps Russia will reduce the production of those same Russian UAVs, because they still use a significant amount of components from Iran.

As for the supply of other types of ammunition, the threat that the Russians might also have an Iranian ballistic missile, which has often been talked about, is probably now being removed for us.

– The nominee for the position of Supreme Commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe, General Alexus Hrynkevich, stated that Ukraine can win this war. He noted that the Ukrainians are fighting with determination. Can this statement be seen as a hint that the United States may significantly increase its assistance precisely so that Ukraine wins, and not just stays afloat?

– According to the military hierarchy, this is one of the key commanders, who first reports to the commander of the joint staff, and then directly to the president. This person does not make key decisions regarding assistance to Ukraine. But he can assess the challenges for the US army in Europe, especially since this contingent will actually be reduced next month. He can express his position on the need, based on his own analysis.

It is also necessary to understand that the vast majority of American generals, when they began their journey as military cadets, were trained according to the patterns of the Cold War and preparation for confrontation with the Soviet Union, and now with Russia. And they are ready. But the American political class, unfortunately, does not show the signs of life that we would very much like to see.

At the level of rumors, they say that under certain conditions the Americans will be ready to transfer additional Patriot systems to us. This is the only thing that was discussed. But for us now the question is how the delivery of aid packages from the US, which were financed earlier, will be completed.

– The summer offensive of the Russian occupation army is underway. What is the main goal of this offensive? Can it realistically achieve it by the end of the summer? When will the offensive end?

– Like last year, it may end earlier than the end of November or the beginning of December. Everything will depend on weather conditions. There is really a lot of human potential in Russia. Probably even more than they can realize. Yes, there are problems with the equipment.

The main task – this is what the Russians are showing with their maneuvers – is the complete occupation of the Donetsk region. This will allow the Russian political leadership to say that all the goals of the “SVO” have been achieved, that they have “protected” the people of Donetsk and Luhansk, “preserved” Crimea and have received a new strategic springboard for the future for an offensive or war with NATO. That is, they can sell this to the domestic audience. But without the occupation of the Donetsk region within the administrative borders, they will not succeed.

As for other maneuvers, something is supposedly being prepared in the south of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, the same applies to the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, the main task of these campaigns is to divert our resources and attention in order to improve our capabilities in the Donetsk region.

As far as I understand, their task was to carry out this operation in two stages: capture Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, form a bridgehead in this area, and then move on to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. At the moment, they have not achieved the goals of the first stage.

– So, we can hope that the enemy will not achieve its global plans at least until the end of the summer?

– Actually, they may not achieve their global plans at all by the end of this year. They have a global line that is somewhat stable, a decrease in the number of combat clashes is being recorded. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the Russians saw that within two months of the start of the offensive they were unable to complete the tasks that were set before them, and stopped beating their heads against the wall. Previously, under such conditions, they would have continued for another two or three months.

But now they are trying to change the approach, basically, the vectors they are attacking. If they get stuck and can’t overcome our defenses, they retreat, regroup, and then come back with a new operational-tactical or strategic plan on how to pick a key to our defenses.

Therefore, we can say that the first wave, which was associated with the intensification of hostilities and increased shelling on the territory of Ukraine, has completely logically ended. I think that in two weeks we will see a new wave of an increase in the number of combat clashes and an intensification of hostilities on the contact line.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/sili-bezpilotnih-sistem-znischili-ridkisnu-pivnichnokorejsku-rszv-scho-pro-nei-vidomo-video.htm