“The Russian gas era in Europe is over”: what will Ukraine’s suspension of transit lead to?

01.01.2025

The oldest gas route from Russia to Europe ceased to exist on January 1. 
Ukraine stopped the transit of blue fuel, and at the same time, the Russian Federation finally lost the ability to supply its pipeline gas directly to European countries. 

“Russia’s gas era in Europe is coming to an end as transit through Ukraine is cut off,” Reuters reported. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United States helped the EU find alternative supplies. Pipeline supplies came from Norway.

An Austrian energy ministry spokesman said that thanks to purchases made through Italy and Germany and the filling of storage facilities, supplies for consumers were guaranteed. Slovakia also will not risk a shortage, although it now faces additional costs of 177 million euros ($184 million) in fees for alternative routes, the economy ministry said. 

A European Commission spokeswoman said the EU’s preparations included energy efficiency measures, the development of renewable energy and a flexible gas system. “European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply gas of non-Russian origin to Central and Eastern Europe via alternative routes. It has been reinforced with significant new LNG import capacity from 2022,” said Anna-Kaisa Itkonen.

Analysts predict minimal impact of the shutdown on the market. They say the completion of the transit agreement is unlikely to lead to a repeat of the 2022 surge in EU gas prices. 

What will be the consequences?

Analysts predict that the cessation of transit through Ukraine will not cause a significant increase in gas prices in Europe. Compared to the price spike in 2022, the market is now much more stable thanks to alternative energy sources.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko : “Citizens will not feel this event. We will provide gas and heat to the homes of every Ukrainian. All necessary work has been carried out by the GTS Operator… We are ready for the functioning of our GTS without the transit of Russian gas.”

According to Reuters, for Ukraine, the suspension of transit means the loss of about $800 million in annual revenue from transit payments. Russia will lose about $5 billion from gas sales to European consumers. European countries have prepared in advance for the suspension of gas supplies via Ukraine:

  • Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria and other countries have found alternative supply routes;
  • Hungary will continue to receive gas through the TurkStream pipeline;
  • Since 2022, the European Union has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian gas, increasing energy imports from the United States, Norway, and Qatar.

As OBOZ.UA previously reported, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to limit electricity supplies from his country to Ukraine and visited the Kremlin, where he met with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Zelensky responded by saying that Putin had instructed Fico to open a second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the interests of the Slovak people.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/analytics-and-forecasts/rosijska-gazova-era-v-evropi-zakinchilas-do-chogo-prizvede-zupinka-ukrainoyu-tranzitu.htm

One comment

  1. This is yet another defeat for the little, stinking fascist rat and his depraved moskovia. The damage he and his fellow gangsters have caused to mafia land will be long-lasting, felt for decades. It’s perhaps safe to say that the era of Europe’s dependence on mafia land for fossil fuel is gone forever. One day, the decrepit shithole won’t even be a gas-station-pretending-to-be-a-country anymore. This is the steep price those fascist imperialists and their brainwashed people have to pay for their evilness.

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