04/09/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The Russian occupation army has the resources for a large-scale offensive, primarily human resources – about 14 million people. True, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have already managed to turn about half a million of them into “fertilizers.”
Will there be an offensive at the end of May – in June, as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky warned about ? The question now is when, where and how the enemy will begin to accumulate a strike force. This opinion was expressed by Igor Koziy, an expert on military issues at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation , in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Prime Minister Shmygal said that at present Ukraine does not need to mobilize 500 thousand people. According to him, an audit was carried out and rotation began, so mobilization will be soft. In your opinion, why was such a decision made, especially given the large-scale offensive of the Russian occupation army expected in the summer?
– Making a statement and making a decision are two different things. Before Shmygal, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine spoke about this; he has a corresponding structure, the General Staff, which makes all the calculations, forecasts, and necessary conclusions. True, I cannot understand how the commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is connected with the prime minister. These are two independent structures. However, he could provide this information through the Minister of Defense if he had permission from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.
– What do you think about this figure, about the reduction in mobilization plans?
– Where did you get the idea that this is an abbreviation? This is not an abbreviation at all. This issue is proportionally related to the unfolding of strategic things happening in Russia. I mean that the Russian Federation announced approximately this figure, therefore, the Armed Forces are working out the same figure. That is, it is parity, one to one, that’s all.
You still need to create units, they are formed into units, units into formations, etc. All this requires human resources, weapons and other resources related to logistics or logistics.
But I don’t see anything new or unexpected here. Today I am more concerned about the inability of state structures to suppress what Russian forces are trying to do against the backdrop of mobilization in Ukraine – to create a split in Ukrainian society.
– Regarding Kharkov, President Zelensky called the situation “very tough.” According to him, the tasks of both the military and diplomats are to give Kharkov more protection from the sky. Of course, there are a number of objective reasons why this is difficult, in particular the proximity to the Russian border. Do you think we have a chance to better protect this city?
– This is a question that you should address not to military experts, but to officials involved in the Ukrainian economy, especially in the area called the defense-industrial complex.
Today’s authorities are forced to create defense industrial enterprises out of thin air. Will they succeed? If so, honor and praise.
– A UAV detonated at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant . At least three direct hits to the reactor’s main vessel structure were also reported. Why is the enemy attacking this critical energy facility, given that it is located in temporarily occupied territory?
– The main task is to discredit the government of Ukraine, our Armed Forces, to lead NATO into complete prostration and confusion with its incomprehensible statements, which in some cases encourage the Russian Federation to further aggression. And they are gradually implementing this task and fulfilling it. It seems that NATO has already taken off its rose-colored glasses, but then Stoltenberg’s incomprehensible statements are heard.
– Do you believe in a large-scale offensive by the Russian occupation army, which, according to forecasts, could begin at the end of May – in June?
– I believe that Russia has the resource. This resource is called “14 million”. Of these 14 million, the Armed Forces converted about half a million into mineral fertilizers – we are approaching this figure. Although there are also losses. Accordingly, 14 million minus half a million – you can clearly understand how much resource is still available. Although there are other factors, primarily related to the fact that citizens of the Russian Federation are fleeing mobilization because they do not want to be turned into cannon fodder.
So there is potentially a resource for deploying troops. If we take indicators such as the number of tanks, then in 2014 about 12.5 thousand were announced. According to the General Staff, more than 7 thousand Russian tanks have already been destroyed. Therefore, there are still about 5.5 thousand left. Regarding the fact that obsolete tanks have been removed from storage bases, this information can only be confirmed by the Main Intelligence Directorate, which is directly involved in collecting information.
How many tanks can the Russian defense industry produce today? Again, a question for the intelligence community so that there is no speculation and insinuation on this matter.
Can they? Of course they can. The question is when, where and how they will begin to gather and concentrate their forces. And also how and with what we can destroy it.
If there is one positive aspect about this war, it’s the fertilizing of Ukrainian fields with roach meat and blood, and Ukraine having the best fed stray dogs and cats, rats, mice, and other creatures that feed on roach meat.
More like created a toxic waste dump.
If Russia mobilizes 500.000 recruits, it’s ok for Ukraine to counter with 250.000. But these need to be raised, not less, and NOW! Because those reinforcements need good training to be of any use. No more delays, get it done! 🤨
I agree.