The Russian evacuation of Crimea has begun.

Time to go home.

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By ROBIN HORSFALL

JUL 03, 2026

The evacuation of Crimea has begun. More than 3000 vehicles are queued up on Kerch Bridge waiting to leave. Many have jerry cans of petrol or diesel as a reserve. In a place where there is no fuel available to civilians one might ask whether this was good planning or whether the evacuees have access to sources which are not available to the general population. Some will be holiday makers trying to get home after realising they should never have turned up in a war zone the first place. However, there has been the suggestion those trying to leave are FSB officials, military families plus unessential junior officials and their families trying to get out first. Those evacuees will be concerned their lack of employment could force them into the ranks of a losing army as soon as they get back to the motherland. The Russian government is already making plans for the evacuation of 250,000 and finding ways to absorb them into the general population.

The bridge remains open but closes every time the authorities think it is under threat. At some point they will have to run the gauntlet and go. It would be a good idea to close the road into Crimea for set periods so that all lanes could be used in one direction to clear the backlog.

Russia will consider the evacuation in a positive light because it frees up fuel and food supplies for its military forces. It also reduces their responsibility to the Crimean civilian population. If 250, 000 get out it probably leaves another half million behind who are Russian civilian occupiers and then there is the occupying military forces to consider:

Active Personnel Deployed: 40,000–50,000

Paramilitary/FSB Forces: 6,000+

Army Units: 30,000+

Navy Personnel (Black Sea Fleet): 10,000+

Air Force & Aerospace Forces: 5,000+

Ground Forces

Main Battle Tanks (MBTs): 300+ (T-72B3, T-80 variants)

Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 700+

Artillery (Towed & Self-Propelled): 250+

MLRS: 80+ (including BM-30 Smerch, BM-21 Grad)

Air Force

Combat Aircraft: 60+

Attack Helicopters: 40+

Transport Aircraft: 10+

Drones & ISR Assets: Extensive (Orlan-10, Forpost)

Aircraft Breakdown:

Su-27SM, Su-30SM, Su-34 strike Aircraft

MiG-29K (from naval aviation)

Ka-52 and Mi-28 Attack Helicopters

A-50 AWACS and ISR platforms rotating in

Naval Forces (Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol HQ)

Warships: 25+

Submarines: 6 (Kilo-class diesel-electric)

Frigates/Corvettes: 10+

Patrol Boats, Landing Ships, Support Vessels: 10+

Notable Vessels:

Admiral Grigorovich-class Frigates

Improved Kilo-class Submarines (Kalibr-capable)

Ropucha-class and Ivan Gren-class landing ships

Missile Capabilities

Crimea is a hub for long-range precision strike systems and air/missile defence, including:

Iskander-M SRBMs (range: 500 km+)

Kalibr Cruise Missiles (naval/land-launched)

S-400 Triumf SAM systems (range: 400 km)

Bastion-P Coastal Defence System (P-800 Oniks)

This is an impressive force and a lot to lose if it is cut off. Indeed, Crimea has been one of the most heavily fortified regions in the whole war. These, however, are Russian official figures and are unlikely to consider recent losses. Forces remaining are seriously weakened by depleted air defences and shortage of fuel. It takes tons of food every day to feed an army of this size. If power cuts persist, the life of frozen supplies will diminish. An army marches on its stomach and without food soldiers cannot operate for long. Food is their fuel. They will in true Russian fashion steal food from the civilian population in order to remain in situ, but without some form of relief they only have a few months left at best.

It is possible Russia could negotiate a peaceful withdrawal of its people and save a lot of lives. That option unfortunately, is in the hands of Putin whose hold on power is weakening. He can choose to save his army or his reputation. I would toss a coin before deciding which option he will take.

Crimea is falling, Crimea will become Ukrainian again. The war began in Crimea, and it could end there. If Crimea falls the Kerch bridge falls, and after such a disaster Putin must eventually fall too.

There is a still a fight to be had and big decisions to be made; it won’t be a simple walk in. Russian could raise the country to the ground before it runs. Russia has done it before in other nations; it could massacre civilians; they’ve done that before too. Russia regards the civilian population as a weapon to be used. Forcing Ukraine to care for civilians adversely affects their ability to wage war. Defeating the Russian army leaves a void that must be filled with an effective administration.

Ukraine hopes Russia will evacuate and leave the peninsula in reasonable order, but they must be ready to launch a ground offensive if necessary to take the land and to avoid a humanitarian disaster to those left behind.

Perhaps an unencumbered evacuation by Russia and an open bridge can be exchanged for leaving Crimea as a functioning state.

Crimea is Ukraine. Slava Ukraini!

Robin Horsfall

I write to fight!

https://robinhorsfall.substack.com/p/copy-the-russian-evacuation-of-crimea?r=17e8q4&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true