The US president imposed sanctions and talked tough – but behind the scenes he was negotiating with Putin

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, pictured in August, have reportedly cooked up a deal without Volodymyr Zelensky Credit: Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty

David BlairChief Foreign Affairs Commentator

19 November 2025

Seldom has there been a more glaring and cynical contrast between public words and private actions. Even as Donald Trump was voicing his exasperation with Vladimir Putin and sanctioning Russia’s biggest oil companies, the emissaries of both leaders were continuing to bargain over the future of Ukraine.

The emergence of a 28-point peace plan, apparently agreed between Russia and America, lifts the veil on these contacts. Within 24 hours of Mr Trump imposing US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil on Oct 23, Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, was flying to Miami to spend three days closeted with Steve Witkoff, his American counterpart, from Oct 24 to 26.

The outcome of these and other meetings is what Putin has sought all along: American agreement to Russia-friendly terms for resolving the war in Ukraine. Like a recurring nightmare, Ukraine and the rest of Europe once again face the prospect of Mr Trump joining hands with Putin to force a settlement down Volodymyr Zelensky’s throat.

Britain and most European countries recoil from this possibility, not because they are opposed to peace or obdurately against any concessions, but for the simple reason that if Putin is given a large measure of what he wants, he will inevitably come back for more and launch yet another blood-soaked invasion of Ukraine in the years ahead.

The terms of the 28-point plan are enough to make this danger real. Ukraine would have to hand over all of Donbas to Russia, including those areas which Putin has failed to capture.

Mr Zelensky would, in effect, be compelled to relinquish thousands of square miles which his soldiers have doggedly defended at immense cost. He would be required to sacrifice the fortresses in the unoccupied areas of the Donetsk region that protect the rest of Ukraine.

And, most grievously of all, Mr Zelensky would have to hand over hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian people who live in these towns and villages to an enemy that murders the men, rapes the women and kidnaps the children.

He would also have to cut the size of Ukraine’s army in half and give up the long-range weapons that are being used to strike oil refineries and other targets deep inside Russia.

Those terms, if implemented, would give Putin the best possible launch pad for a third invasion of Ukraine to seize the rest of the country, probably after a short interlude to restock his armouries and rebuild his forces.

The only safeguard against that calamity is that the plan may include some form of American security guarantee for whatever is left of Ukraine after any peace agreement. That has always been Mr Zelensky’s capital demand for the simple reason that Putin would only be deterred from ordering another onslaught if he knew that he would get into a war with America.

But there are as many different ways of offering a security guarantee as there are of skinning the proverbial cat. The options range from the utterly meaningless to the completely watertight.

Ukrainians have reason to be hypersensitive on this question because, in theory, they already have an American guarantee. In the notorious Budapest Memorandum of 1994, America, Britain and Russia came together to assure Ukraine of its safety in return for the country giving up its nuclear weapons. When put to the test, that agreement turned out to be worthless.

It’s entirely possible that the peace plan might yet be amended or even abandoned. But if Ukraine is forced to reject it, Britain and the rest of Europe will have to decide whether to support that decision, even if this infuriates Mr Trump.

The prime objective of their diplomacy has always been to avoid that stark choice and prevent a rupture of the Atlantic alliance. But unless these latest proposals change or simply evaporate, that decision may become unavoidable.