The range of Ukraine’s drones is steadily increasing

April 6, 2024

Ukraine’s Security Service and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted one of the largest series of drone strikes against military facilities within Russia, targeting at least four Russian airbases, on the night of April 4 to 5. […] SBU and Ukrainian forces conducted successful strikes on airfields near Kursk City and Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai; the Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast; and the Morozovsk Airbase in Rostov Oblast. These Ukrainian security sources reportedly stated that the Ukrainian drone strikes significantly damaged three Tu-95MS strategic bombers at Engels airbase, damaged two Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft at the airbase near Yeysk, and destroyed six unidentified aircraft and significantly damaged another eight unidentified aircraft at the Morozovsk Airbase. […] Geolocated footage shows explosions and Russian air defenses activating near all the airbases except for the one near Yeysk. […]

Satellite imagery collected on April 4 indicates that there were
·  three Tu-160 heavy strategic bombers, five Tu-95 strategic bombers, an Il-76 transport aircraft, and a Tu-22 bomber at Engels Airbase;
·  ten L-39 training and combat aircraft, five An-26 transport aircraft, an An-74 transport aircraft, an An-12 transport aircraft, four Su-27 fixed-winged aircraft, four Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft, one Su-30 fixed-wing aircraft, and several Ka-52 and Mi-8 helicopters at the Yeysk Airbase; and
·  29 fixed-wing aircraft, primarily Su-34s, at the Morozovsk airfield.

[…] Ukrainian drone strikes have typically only targeted individual airbases within Russia, and Ukraine’s ability to strike four separate airbases in one strike series represents a notable inflection in the capabilities that Ukrainian forces are employing in their campaign against Russian military infrastructure, critical infrastructure, and strategic industries within Russia.” (ISW, 5 April 2024)

ME: At the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine was mostly using off-the-shelf equipment, either for surveillance or skilfully adapted to drop small bombs. Ukraine has since developed a fully-fledged drone industry, giving it a technological edge to set against Russia’s significantly larger manpower and state industry capable of quantity (at the cost of quality).

Ukrainian drone capacity has consistently evolved, allowing it to target airfields, air defence systems, command posts, and supply depots in RUS. The range of the drones has steadily increased, enabling strikes 1,200 km inside RUS. The range is expected to increase to 3,300 km this year, enabling UKR to target key objects as far afield as Murmansk.

Ukrainian UAVs are also getting smarter. They are increasingly using a basic form of artificial intelligence to help them navigate, avoid being jammed and target Russian capabilities.

Ukraine’s campaign is successfully degrading Russian defence industrial base, its logistics and defensive systems. This will over time impact Russia’s ability to advance and sustain its war in Ukraine.