7.05.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
In February, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine under certain conditions. At the beginning of May, the politician named specific conditions: the Russian army must break through the front line, and Kyiv must send a corresponding request for help. It seems that more and more players are responding to the call to Western allies not to rule out this option.
As La Repubblica writes, citing sources in the Alliance, they have also already outlined “red lines” for active military assistance to Ukraine. Allegedly, NATO countries have “confidentially” established two “lines”, at the intersection of which direct intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance in the war in Ukraine is possible.
The Russian dictator responded to such statements in his favorite and only available way – threats to use nuclear weapons.
Read about how more and more countries around the world are thinking about direct intervention in the war on the side of Ukraine in the OBOZ.UA material.
The first real threat since the start of the war
After Macron’s February statement, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that “NATO has no plans to send troops to Ukraine and NATO is not a party to the conflict.” They say that even if individual countries of the Alliance send troops to Ukraine, this will affect NATO as a whole, since its members are bound by a collective defense pact.
And yet then the NATO Secretary General added the following: “It is important that we consult and have a common approach on these important topics, because they matter to us all.” It seems that consultations are proceeding quite actively and in the right direction.
At least, this is what the Italian newspaper La Repubblica says, which writes that allegedly “NATO has confidentially and without official communications identified at least two “red lines” beyond which direct intervention in the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is possible with the involvement of more than 100 a thousand-strong contingent to participate in hostilities against Russia.”
The first “red line” is the direct or indirect participation of a third party in the war. An example is the possibility of an attack on Kyiv from the territory of Belarus, which was already at the very beginning of a full-scale invasion. The second “red line” is a military provocation against the Baltic countries or Poland or a targeted attack on Moldova.
It is not entirely clear how NATO imagines a strike on Moldova today, since this country is separated from the territory of the Russian Federation by the territory of Ukraine. An attack from the territory of the so-called Transnistrian Republic, where parts of the Russian army are concentrated, also seems unlikely. Perhaps NATO is already considering the danger of the Russian army seizing the south of Ukraine, that is, the creation of a corridor that the Russian military spoke about back in 2022, emphasizing the strategic importance of capturing Odessa and reaching the borders with the so-called PMR. And yet, now Russia does not have the capabilities for such an attack.
According to the publication, the Alliance is considering the possibility of using in the war with Russia troops deployed along the eastern border of Europe – in the Baltic countries, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, which is more than 100,000 soldiers.
Such messages are important because they send a message to Russian dictator Putin: Ukraine cannot lose and the Alliance may be prepared to intervene directly to prevent this from happening. By and large, we can say that this information confirms the words of the French President that French troops or a coalition of individual states may appear on the territory of Ukraine if developments threaten Ukrainian sovereignty.
Putin threatens with nuclear weapon
It seems that now the Kremlin has no other arguments other than threats to arrange a nuclear apocalypse.
Thus, on May 6, Putin ordered his army to conduct exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The exercises will involve missile formations of the Southern Military District, aviation and naval forces, and their goal is to “increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions,” as well as “practical testing of the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.”
The exercises are conducted “in response to provocative statements and threats by individual Western officials,” as well as with the goal of “unconditionally ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian Federation.”
The fact that dancing with non-strategic nuclear weapons is connected precisely with statements about the West’s readiness to send troops to Ukraine was confirmed by the press secretary of the Russian dictator Peskov. According to him, the new round of escalation of tension is unprecedented and requires special attention and special measures.
Plans are good, but their implementation is another matter
“This information does not need to be exaggerated right away. Personally, I have not seen in my practice that NATO uses such terminology as “red lines” in relation to actions or reactions to any actions. Regarding the plans that the Italian publication talks about, they can there should be, “but their implementation is another matter” – this opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to OBOZ.UA by Ukrainian diplomat Igor Dolgov, who headed the Ukrainian embassies in Germany, Turkey, Belgium and Georgia, the Ukrainian mission to NATO, and was Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Ukraine and Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine.
“The Alliance’s strategy is to protect the territories of member countries. Therefore, it is not entirely clear what La Repubblica published – under what options NATO troops will supposedly be involved. For example, the entry into the war of Belarus, which is a member of a union state with the Russian Federation. On the territory where, as we know, Russian troops are based, these troops are being trained there, ammunition and equipment are stored. Two years ago, it was from there that Russian troops came to Ukraine. Therefore, talking about such a “red line” as the future involvement of Belarus is no longer correct. The neighboring state is already involved in the war. Another thing is that the armed forces of this country have not shown themselves in any way,” the diplomat said.
As for the second possibility referred to by La Repubblica – military provocations against the Baltic countries, Poland or Moldova, then, according to Igor Dolgov, the terminology here is also not entirely clear. For example, a fragment of a Russian rocket fell on the territory of, say, Moldova or Romania. Or are some unfriendly actions of the Russian military space forces over the Baltic Sea provocations or not? There is no specific answer in the material.
“And then comes the moment of decision-making, because, as we all know and remember, in NATO decisions are made by consensus,” continues Igor Dolgov. “Will all member countries be ready to decide to take active action against units of the Russian Armed Forces?” And what needs to happen for such mechanisms to be activated? It seems to me that provocations are not enough. There must be more serious manifestations, in particular attacks on the territory or airspace of either the Baltic countries or Moldova.
In my opinion, a reaction not by NATO forces, but a reaction by individual NATO member countries is still possible. And yet, having plans and activating them are two different things. And it is obvious that from the very beginning NATO was afraid and feared even hints that the conflict might develop to the bloc’s direct participation in the war with the Russian Federation,” notes Igor Dolgov.
According to the diplomat, the United States is still afraid of being drawn into a direct conflict with Russia. And analysts advise the US government to avoid this main danger in every possible way. Because this takes the conflict to a different plane and a different level of threats, the danger of nuclear war.
“That is, plans for any eventuality must exist. But we must understand that they are developed, prepared and conceived by the military. Activation of plans is in the competence of politicians, especially when we are talking about NATO,” noted Igor Dolgov.
The West is sending a clear signal
“The appearance of this information means that the Alliance understands the important threats associated with the continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Let us recall that Russia claims all the territories of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which are now mentioned in its Constitution as subjects of the Russian Federation. At the same time Putin is not abandoning his other expansionist plans, and Western politicians understand the degree of danger,” this point of view was expressed by political analyst and publicist Vitaly Portnikov.
According to Portnikov, the West fears that Putin is ready to fulfill his main ambitious goal – the elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty and the annexation of all of Ukraine to the Russian Federation as a series of regions devoid of any subjectivity. As you know, Russia is considering the possibility of restoring Russian statehood within the borders of the 1991 Union.
“It is precisely the limitation of Russian capabilities from the point of view of eliminating the sovereignty of Ukraine that is the main task of the civilized world in the subsequent years of the Russian-Ukrainian war. And the fact that the West may be ready to intervene in the situation if Russia really encroaches on Ukrainian sovereignty is an important signal both for Putin and for all of us.
That is, the situation can no longer be repeated when Russia advances on Kyiv with the aim of capturing the city and creating a puppet government in the Ukrainian capital led by collaborators. Putin must be aware that this plan of his can hardly be implemented in the future, because the West clearly indicates that it will not allow the liquidation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. And this is the first step towards the liberation of all Ukrainian territories today seized by Russia,” notes Vitaly Portnikov.
Whatever NATO or the West will decide on doing in a certain situation, one thing can be counted on; its slowness and its too-little-too-late policy will continue.
“And then comes the moment of decision-making, because, as we all know and remember, in NATO decisions are made by consensus,”
Have fun with that, NATO, with members like Hungary, Turkey, and even Slovakia.
If this war has shown one thing loud and clear, it is NATO’s ineffectiveness in a time of crisis, as this war represents. The EU, too, by the way. The West has demonstrated to the whole world that in such trying times as we now live in, there is no real unity and any actions taken are weak and lethargic, even if the emergency is right at its front door.
I’m sorry about my pessimism about the collective West, but this is what was forced on me after watching the clown show for over two years. Actually, the circus show started in 2014 already.
“It seems that now the Kremlin has no other arguments other than threats to arrange a nuclear apocalypse.”
The tiny nazi shitweasel threatened the same when he invaded Crimea in 2014.
Guess what; it fucking worked.
You can’t blame the creature for yet another repeat performance. Chances are it will work yet again for him.
We’ll see won’t we?
Of course, it’s working. The spineless morons in various governments have never heard about the little boy who kept crying wolf.
This brazen threat deserves a strong and clear answer. A test start of a ballistic missile from a British or French submarine would send the right signal, me thinks.
✊😠🚀
There is no one with the right-sized balls for such a display, Mr. Gray. That’s the whole problem. We only swallow their bullshit, over and over again.