01/15/2024
Today, the Russian occupation army has quite a large human potential. The aggressor country deployed 460 thousand military personnel for the war against Ukraine. This is three times more than at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, when the Russian army numbered 150 thousand. Thanks to this, the enemy can carry out rotations at the operational level, essentially keep a constant number of warriors on the front line all the time, and even advance in certain sectors of the front, despite colossal losses.
However, every month the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroy 200-250 tanks of the occupier, while the monthly supply of this equipment from enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex is only 70 units. Therefore, in terms of armored vehicles, the enemy has a “negative balance.” Regarding the state of military assistance to Ukraine from the United States, it will soon resume, so Ukrainians should not broadcast the Kremlin narratives that “we were abandoned.” This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexey Getman .
– The Institute for the Study of War ( ISW ) concluded that, despite heavy losses, the Russian occupation army is still capable of rotating at the operational level and recovering quickly. If this is true, how bad is it?
– By and large, this does not change anything. It was like that before. What is rotation at the operational level? This is the company level. That is, the amount of manpower that Russia has in different directions – in particular, 130 thousand in Kupyansko-Limansky, 40 thousand in Avdeevsky, etc. – does not mean that they all go on the attack at the same time. This number also includes support services. There are several hundred of those attacking in a separate area. And behind them are several thousand. This is rotation at the operational level.
We are not talking about attracting people from the rear, mobilized, etc. They can carry out partial rotation at the expense of their own resources. Therefore, one should not assume that they are adding a thousand people from the rear every day. This is wrong.
Of course, mobilization from the rear is being carried out in Russia, but these people are still undergoing training. Every day we destroy a certain amount of their manpower, we are talking about a thousand along the entire front line. A thousand kilometers means one person per kilometer, if you count it mathematically.
According to the same Institute for the Study of War, currently the units of the Russian occupation army are 92-95% staffed, that is, almost completely. And this allows for rotation at the operational level.
– Yes, indeed, the length of the front line is very large, but we see that the enemy is concentrating in certain areas. In particular, in the Avdeevka area, on the left bank of the Dnieper. Do you think that today the offensive potential of the enemy army is sufficient to make certain breakthroughs?
“Some people may not like this, but such a number of troops is capable of advancing in some sectors of the front.” Whether they will be able to do this or not is another question. But from a purely military point of view, purely arithmetically, the forces and means that they have are quite enough for an offensive.
Let’s be objective, because very often we want to wishful thinking. But there are now almost half a million people there. Remember, at the beginning of the large-scale invasion there were 150 thousand – now three times more, 460 thousand. This is a powerful group.
– Are we talking primarily about the so-called meat assaults? Or are the occupiers’ weapons also okay?
– No. They have some problems with heavy equipment and weapons. Because they can attract people, but we neutralize three times more weapons, especially tanks, than they can produce or extract from their so-called strategic reserves. We are talking about when they make one out of 3-4 tanks.
Their Uralvagonzavod can produce about 20 tanks per month, and they can get about 50 more from warehouses. That is a total of about 70 per month. According to our General Staff, we neutralize 200-250 enemy tanks per month. Therefore, they have a negative balance. This means that they can attract people, but they cannot produce more tanks.
– The United States has suspended the provision of military assistance to Ukraine. It can be resumed after Congress approves a new budget. Do you think that this situation, this pause is very dangerous for Ukraine?
“This is a completely incorrect interpretation of what is happening.” You just repeated the Russian narrative. This is exactly how these narratives work. This is exactly what the Russians want – for us to have doubts, distrust of our partners, and the like.
This is not entirely true. The fact is that financial and military assistance from the United States was approved at the end of 2022 – beginning of 2023. Like any budget of any country, it was planned for next year. We received everything that was planned for 2023. It ended in 2023 because the year ended.
As for 2024, they delayed making a decision on aid because there were some disputes between Republicans and Democrats over the Mexican-American border. Moreover, we are talking not only about providing military assistance to Ukraine. We are talking about the adoption of the country’s budget, in particular, about the financing of government institutions.
If the budget is not adopted, civil servants stop receiving salaries. And this is the same shutdown – they cannot pay their people, their military personnel, their civil servants without an approved budget.
But soon everything will be accepted. There will be funding for US government agencies, the Pentagon, Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. What kind of assistance will be given to Ukraine, what the numbers will be – we will see. But both funding and equipment will come immediately. At the same time, Kremlin propaganda is trying to show this in such a way that aid from the United States has allegedly been stopped.
In Russia they want us to think that the West is tired of us, that “we were abandoned.” Nothing like this. Let those who say this go and wash themselves with cold water.
“We are talking about when they make one [tank–OFP] out of 3-4 tanks [in storage–OFP].”
This means, that only a part of the tanks in storage can be repaired and brought into action. The same goes with each and every piece of other type of equipment.
So, they have plenty of meat. But, in modern warfare, meat doesn’t win battles. This is not the Middle Ages when meat had greater weight.
“Do you think that this situation, this pause is very dangerous for Ukraine?”
“This is a completely incorrect interpretation of what is happening.” You just repeated the Russian narrative.
This is what I’ve been saying. But still we hear it day after day after day after day. Not so much for the defense of Ukraine but to be purely political and not even mention guilt on both sides. In the end we are only serving Pootin when we do this.
Could you elaborate on those two quotes, Red?
imo, doubt is contagious and it comes from the Kremlin. That is why Cucker Tarlson was so damaging. He created doubt and it caught on. When you create doubt you don’t have to prove anything. Ditto conspiracy theories. Doubt and fear can defeat Ukraine easier than bombs.
I’m reminded of Churchill’s quote when answering the question, “Does the USA always do the right thing?” And he answered, “Yes, after they try everything else first.”
To panic about the USA funding creates doubt and fear. Yeah, democracy is messy and should involve compromises. After all, it takes TWO to dance.
Also, imo, when you shut out people and tell them they’re evil and not wanted…they are much less likely to compromise.
Thanks. I see. We’ll just have to wait for the entry of the fat lady, Red. Or, it’s always the darkest just before dawn.
Gotcha. if I wasn’t optimistic I would die. There has to be a damn good reason for all these beautiful people to die. This is the great war of independence. Haven’t we been here before?…….
Many generations before us had to make sacrifices to allow us to be where we are. I’m convinced that this is every bit the kind of fight that will bring changes to our world like the Civil War, WWI, WWII, etc. have.
Absolutely. This is also reminiscent of our war of independence.