4.05.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Since the beginning of this week, the first deliveries of US military aid have begun after a six-month break and the recently adopted decision of Congress to resume such assistance. However, it will be possible to talk about saturating the front-line areas with a sufficient number of necessary weapons and ammunition, at best, in a few weeks.
Russia is trying to use this time to achieve maximum results in the area of Avdeevka and Chasovoy Yar in the Donetsk region until the arrival of Western weapons and ammunition helps Ukrainian soldiers slow down or stop the advance of the occupying forces. This is stated in a new analytical material from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Thus, analysts recalled that the first batch of recovered aid, which included anti-tank missiles and 155-mm artillery shells, arrived on April 28, The New York Times reported. And the very next day the second tranche of aid arrived, the contents of which were not publicly disclosed.
Also, according to the publication’s sources, Spanish missiles for Patriot are already awaiting delivery in Poland. Germany’s recently promised Patriot system will arrive in Ukraine no earlier than June – perhaps at the same time as the first F-16 fighters.
However, The New York Times sources among officials say that it may take several months before significant quantities of Western weapons and equipment arrive in Ukraine. And at this time Russia will try to use it for its own purposes.
According to one American official familiar with the confidential findings of the Pentagon, the Russian Federation can achieve certain successes in the east and southeast of Ukraine by May 9. However, the invaders near the front line do not have the strength to quickly launch a large-scale offensive. Therefore, the Americans believe that the Ukrainian defense, despite a serious shortage of ammunition, will not fall in the near future.
“The US military assessment is consistent with the current ISW assessment that Russian forces will likely seek to exploit tactical advantages to achieve significant operational gains in key sectors, such as near Chasovoy Yar and Avdeevka, weeks before military assistance The United States will arrive at Ukrainian units on the front line in significant quantities, but these Russian achievements will not foreshadow the collapse of the Ukrainian defense,” the analysts concluded.
Let us recall that earlier ISW stated that the Kremlin is dissatisfied with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably trying to reduce Shoigu’s power by balancing him with his rivals. One of the arguments in favor of this was the meeting of the dictator with the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, affiliated with the Wagner PPK. ISW suggests that the Kremlin is actively looking for a replacement for Shoigu.
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I said this right after the House passed the Ukraine aid bill; the cockroaches will up the ante to take as much territory as possible before the aid arrives in Ukraine. The AFU should be demolishing some bridges in cockroach-held hinterlands to disrupt their logistics.
So provide some air support you wankers.
Chasiv Yar must not fall.