11 November 2025
The economic slowdown, escalating sanctions, and sharply rising interest rates have pushed the Russian economy into a non-payment crisis.
In the third quarter, 39% of large companies experienced non-payments from counterparties, according to a survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, the country’s largest business association, which includes over 100 industry associations from banking to the fuel and energy sector.
Non-payments have become the main constraint on business activity, according to the survey: the number of companies facing non-payments increased 1.5 times compared to the second quarter, and their share increased by 13 percentage points.
As a result, more entrepreneurs complain about non-payments than about decreased demand (34%), lack of funds (32%), or unavailability of credit (32%).
Rosstat data confirms that Russian companies’ overdue debt to suppliers reached 3.841 trillion rubles as of the end of August. Since the beginning of the year, the volume of non-payments has increased by 395 billion rubles (+11%), and by 993 billion rubles (+35%) compared to January 2024. 4,520 Russian enterprises had outstanding debt to counterparties, with manufacturing companies leading the way at 1.53 trillion rubles.
The problem of non-payments arose last year, amid a high key interest rate, notes Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. Sharply higher loan costs led to businesses’ interest expenses to banks jumping by 83% last year and another 54% in the first half of this year, according to Expert RA estimates
. Now, the reason for the continued non-payments could be the slowing growth of budget expenditures, Orlova points out: oil and gas revenues are plummeting, non-resource revenues are lagging behind plan, and the authorities are being forced to cut back on civilian spending. To meet the deficit target (5.7 trillion rubles), budget expenditures in the fourth quarter must exceed last year’s by only 5%, compared to 20% in January-September, Orlova notes.
Small businesses are also experiencing non-payments —25% of surveyed companies, according to a July study by Promsvyazbank and Opora Rossii. However, for 15%, the incidence of such cases is growing. This is a consequence of economic problems, note PSB analysts: “The worsening payment discipline problems may be due less to intentional defaults by counterparties than to emerging financial problems.”
“In the third quarter, 39% of large companies experienced non-payments from counterparties…”
That’s more bad news for mafia land, and more good news for Ukraine.
No payments from business partners is a serious sign of a system breakdown. Let’s hope this will get much worse.
Red Square Maidan is coming…