9 December 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported a 12-fold increase in the budget gap over the past year.
The federal budget deficit continues to widen, the Russian Ministry of Finance reported on Tuesday.
From January to November, the treasury deficit reached 4.276 trillion rubles, 11.8 times higher than the same period last year (362 billion rubles).
Budget revenues have virtually ceased growing, reaching 32.9 trillion rubles over 11 months (+0.7%), while expenditures increased by 12% to 37.775 trillion rubles. As a result, every ninth ruble spent by the government was not backed by tax revenue.
The decline in oil and gas revenues continues to accelerate, according to Ministry of Finance data: at the end of November, they were 22.4% below last year’s level, after declining by 21% in October and September and by 20% in August.
Non-resource tax revenues increased by 11.3% to 24.871 trillion rubles. However, VAT collection only increased by 5.6%, and in real terms (adjusted for inflation), revenue from it declined. This “is consistent with cooling trends in domestic demand,” explains the Ministry of Finance, noting that the non-oil and gas revenue collection plan was reduced (by a total of 2.2 trillion rubles).
Initially, the government projected a modest deficit of 1.2 trillion rubles (0.5% of GDP) in the 2025 budget, but falling oil prices, a strong ruble, and a sharp economic slowdown forced officials to raise the forecast fivefold, to 5.7 trillion.
In reality, even this plan may prove unachievable, believes Janis Kluge, a research fellow at the Institute for International Security Studies. Budget expenditures are typically at their highest in December—18% of the budgeted amount for the year—but this year, by the end of November, the government had already spent 87% of the budget. If historical proportions persist, the budget deficit by the end of the year could reach 8 trillion rubles, or 3.6% of GDP, Kluge predicts.
The Ministry of Finance claims there will be no December spending surge this year: a significant portion of it was already financed in advance at the beginning of the year. In this case, the December deficit this year will be half that of last year – 1.5-1.7 trillion rubles, and the annual deficit will be close to plan, according to economist Yegor Susin.
In December, the budget faces a shortfall in oil and gas revenues, according to a Gazprombank analyst: discounts on Russian oil due to US sanctions have exceeded $25 per barrel, and oil prices in Black Sea and Pacific ports have plummeted to their lowest since the beginning of the war. Even if the Ministry of Finance cuts December spending, the deficit by year’s end could reach 6 trillion rubles, Gazprombank warns.
Actual revenues from key items were significantly lower than planned this year due to “worsening economic conditions,” notes Emil Ablaev, an expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). “The sharper economic slowdown resulted in lower corporate profits and, consequently, a decline in corporate income tax revenue,” while foreign trade revenues fell due to “decreased commodity prices and the introduction of restrictive measures,” Ablaev adds.
All good news from mafia land.
“The Ministry of Finance reported a 12-fold increase in the budget gap over the past year.”
Not double, not triple, not ten times, but 12 times increase of budget deficit. In the meantime, Alexander Bastrykin called for the confiscation of more property from russians. The roaches are scraping the bottom of the barrel for money to continue the killing.