06/23/2026

The successful operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the logistical routes to Crimea and the military facilities of the occupying country Russia on the territory of the peninsula significantly changed the forecasts for its de-occupation. Today, Crimea has become much closer to returning to Ukraine. While the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is alive, it is hardly necessary to talk about the withdrawal of the occupation troops, but it is already approaching its end, and our country must now seriously prepare for the process of transferring the peninsula under the control of Ukraine.

First of all, it is necessary to clearly define at the legislative level the degree of responsibility of people living in Crimea under occupation. Those who are not guilty of collaborating with the occupiers, who have not committed crimes of either a military or other nature, should be sure that they will not be prosecuted. At the same time, Russian citizens who illegally entered the territory of Crimea after 2014 and settled there will be able to voluntarily leave the peninsula if they have not committed other crimes.

And finally, Ukraine, together with its Western partners, must now formulate a clear and tough “Plan B” in case there is a change of power in Russia. No crime by the aggressor country should go unpunished.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by the head of the all-Ukrainian movement “Force of Law”, former Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea Andriy Senchenko .

– Do you have information about how much the provisioning in Crimea has deteriorated since the Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a powerful operation to organize a “logistical lockdown” on the peninsula?

– There is certainly information. I communicate with many normal people in Crimea, and everyone has the feeling that Crimea has become much closer to actually returning to Ukraine. The occupation regime is really suffocating, and there is simply no way out in the new realities. We see that Russian air defense is degrading. Moreover, this applies not only to Crimea, but also to their oil and gas complex facilities – for them they are of strategic importance, and to defense enterprises and Moscow. Therefore, no miracles will happen in Russia.

At the same time, Ukraine’s ability to deliver long-range strikes and control large territories from the air is growing every day. Therefore, I believe that the suppression of the activities of the Russian group in the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas will continue, and this very seriously brings the de-occupation of these territories closer. This is a generalized opinion of people based on various statements.

Of course, this complicates the lives of our citizens in Crimea, but I always say that these sacrifices should be compared with the sacrifices that our soldiers make at the front, risking their lives and health. Some everyday trifles in this regard should be perceived as inevitable, and these are not such big difficulties. At least, my interlocutors agree with this logic.

It is clear that there are also quite a few collaborators in Crimea. Given that there are quite justified feelings that we are much closer to the return of Crimea today than a year ago, it is very important that the authorities address the issues of their responsibility right now, and not later. People who, relatively speaking, worked as doctors and teachers can be intimidated by the fact that they will be repressed. This is a common FSB technique. They will try to mix them with scoundrels who served the occupation authorities, served in the occupation and Russian security forces, in the army of the aggressor country.

Therefore, it is very important that we bring the return of Crimea closer not only through air strikes on Russian logistics and strategic facilities, but also by working with our citizens.

– In fact, before this large-scale operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, when it came to the liberation of Crimea, most experts agreed that the liberation of the peninsula was possible exclusively through diplomatic, political means. Today, apparently, the possibility of liberation by purely military means has appeared?

– Purely military, purely diplomatic… I wouldn’t try to paint it all in one color. There must be a system of efforts here – both military and diplomatic, and, most importantly, I’ll repeat it again – there are 2 million of our citizens with whom we need to work every day, and, above all, talk to them about what concerns them today.

Okay, Ukraine liberated Crimea, actually returned its territory — what does this mean for each of them? The answer to this question should be provided at the legislative level, and not at the level of statements by politicians, commentators, analysts, etc. Then these components will unite and allow us to return Crimea.

– Refat Chubarov called on Russians who illegally settled in occupied Crimea after 2014 to leave the peninsula while the Crimean Bridge is still standing. Do you agree with this?

– Absolutely correct. I fully support Refat on this issue. This is our humanitarian advice, because for now they can still sell what they bought or built in Crimea, at least try, gather their things, and take them out, because then it will be an escape. Then they will have to throw everything away.

– What responsibility will these people face when Crimea returns to Ukrainian control?

– If we are talking about Russian citizens who have not committed any other crimes, except for illegally crossing the border of Ukraine and entering the occupied territory of Ukraine, in particular, then in this case, I think, they will simply be deported within a very short period of time. That is, first they will be offered to leave on their own, and then, if they do not do this, they will be deported. This applies to those who have not committed any other crimes. For those who have committed crimes of a military or economic nature, crimes against Ukrainian citizens, or participated in repressions, there are relevant articles in our Criminal Code.

As for Ukrainian citizens, now it is necessary to clarify at the legislative level and explain to people against whom there can be no claims at all. Lustration can be applied to those who represented the middle level. But those who were involved in approving the decisions of the occupation authorities, in implementing the policy of occupation and oppression of Ukrainian citizens, must be judged with all the severity of the law. It is very important that this gradation be approved by law, by procedure, so that people understand what it will look like.

Next, of course, everyone will be concerned about property issues, and here too it is very important to explain at least in general terms how this will happen.

– How do you assess the prospects for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Crimea if the Ukrainian Defense Forces operate in the same mode in which they operate now? Do you see the prerequisites for such a radical decision by the Russian military-political leadership? If so, in what timeframe could this happen?

– I think that something like this is unlikely to happen during Putin’s lifetime, but no one is eternal anyway. In addition, when a dictator loses authority in his country, in his environment, it brings the end closer in one way or another. Therefore, I think it is not far off. I do not undertake to name any terms, but I am convinced that Putin himself will not go for it .

At the same time, it is very important that we have no illusions about the quality of the Russian elite , that there are no expectations that some liberals, democrats will appear who will suddenly start adhering to international law. There will be nothing like that in Russia.

Therefore, it is very important that Ukraine, together with our Western partners, very clearly work out a plan “B” for Ukraine. Relatively speaking, now plan “A” is that we fight, defend our country, reclaim territory, and tomorrow, relatively speaking, Putin disappears. And this is where plan “B” is needed.

This needs to be done now, not later, otherwise Europe will start crouching, blowing pink bubbles, talking about the need to resume dialogue… No, there must be an ultimatum. It must be prepared now and agreed upon, first of all, with our European partners.

The essence of the ultimatum is as follows: Russia committed a crime against humanity against a neighboring state, a crime of aggression, killed a large number of people, maimed, destroyed destinies, and will bear responsibility for this. The only question is whether those who will replace Putin will become the successors of the regime, and, accordingly, whether they will be subject to persecution, or whether they will roll back, that is, return Russia to the borders of 1991.

All the stories about the supposedly new borders being enshrined in their constitution are legal casuistry that has existed at all times. They made a decision to incorporate the territories of Ukraine into the Russian Federation, but now they don’t need a decision to withdraw – they need a decision to cancel that decision to incorporate. There are more than enough reasons for this.

So, the ultimatum should be this: this is the first step, and then you start paying reparations. And only later, gradually, very slowly, do sanctions against the Russian Federation begin to be lifted. Because there are things of principle.

The question here is not who will come up with the best idea, but who will prepare better. Now it is very important that we have a common understanding of plan “B” both in Kyiv and among our European partners. If we act in an organized, decisive, clear manner, with just such a plan, then it will become a reality.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/zvilnennya-krimu-nablizhaetsya-nastav-chas-dlya-planu-v-intervyu-z-senchenkom.htm