Iryna Nesterova16:14, 23.03.25

Russia could attack Lithuania as early as this fall, Professor Naitzel believes.

A Russian attack on Lithuania is possible as early as this fall, military expert, historian, and professor at Potsdam University Senke Naitzel said in an interview with the German publication BILD .

He explained his fears by saying that “the security situation in the world has changed” due to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, as well as the policies of US President Donald Trump. 

“We see that Russia has announced large-scale exercises in Belarus. We see strong fear in the Baltic countries that during these exercises, Russian troops may cross the border. And we see that perhaps NATO’s fifth article, at least for the United States, may cease to operate. Deterrence is weakening,” the historian noted.

He cited several factors that determine whether there will be a war in Europe, including “how NATO generally reacts, what role Trump plays, what role the Europeans play, whether peace in Ukraine is achieved in any form.” In his opinion, Putin will not attack other European countries as long as he is at war in Ukraine.

At the same time, Naitzel said that Germany is not ready for such a development, but it is not only about money, but also about army reform. He noted that reforms were taking place, but they “ultimately reached a dead end,” so the next chancellor must seriously take up reforming the armed forces.

“Because the reform of the Bundeswehr was not a project of the entire cabinet, but only a project of individual ministers who did not dare to turn the Bundeswehr upside down… The Chancellor, if Merz becomes him, must say that this is our government project, this is our priority now! The Minister of Transport, the Minister of Labor, the Minister of Construction must also participate in this. After all, the Bundeswehr is an integral part of the infrastructure,” the professor emphasized.

He says that the biggest problem is ammunition: since 1990, he says, they have purchased as much as needed for exercises, but not for war:

“Even during the Cold War, ammunition was the weak point. There was enough fuel, there were enough soldiers, there were mobilization plans. But most often there was only 7-10 days’ worth of ammunition.” 

The historian added that he would include strike drones, which are also in short supply, in the ammunition category.

According to Knightzel, intelligence will also become a problem “if the US stops intelligence support.” 

“We have too few satellites… We also need more powerful air defense: how to protect ourselves from missiles, helicopters, airplanes?” the expert emphasized.

He also expressed hope that the Europeans would cope if the US did not come to their aid in the event of war, although before that the Europeans had always hoped for the Americans. 

“Remember the war in Kosovo: 75% of airstrikes were carried out by the US. In Iraq and Afghanistan, Europeans were, strictly speaking, only auxiliary troops. And when the US left, the Europeans left too, even though we have 500 million citizens in the EU. We have always been in the shadow of the US,” Naitzel emphasized.

At the same time, Naitzel says that “democracies are capable of many things,” because other strong countries remain in NATO:

“Canada remains in the alliance. There are encouraging signals from Paris, London, and now Berlin that perhaps we Europeans are finally learning to walk on our own.”

(C)UNIAN 2025