Iryna Pohorila10:31, 31.05.26

The Lukashenko regime is very seriously involved in the war, and over 500 enterprises are engaged in the production of weapons and ammunition for the Russians.

Ukrainian authorities have warned that Belarus may become a springboard for new Russian attacks, as it already was in 2022. And military cooperation between Moscow and Minsk is increasingly worrying Ukraine’s allies.

According to APnews (AP), Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has ruled the country for more than three decades, relying on close ties with Russia, as well as subsidies from the Kremlin treasury. Therefore, he is helping the Kremlin in every way to wage war against Ukraine. The publication noted that the role of Belarus in all this is quite serious.

First of all, the publication reminded that it was from Belarus that Russian tanks moved towards Kyiv in 2022. But when the “Kyiv in three days” scenario failed, Moscow tried to negotiate a quick end to the conflict. And it was Belarus that hosted the first negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

“As the conflict turned into a war of attrition, Belarus played a key role in supporting Moscow’s military efforts. Belarusian factories produced microchips and other electronics, optical guidance systems, artillery ammunition, and trucks carrying Russian ballistic missiles,” the publication wrote.

According to Vladyslav Vlasyuk, the presidential envoy for sanctions policy in Ukraine, the fragments of the Oreshnik ballistic missile launched by Russia over Ukraine on May 24 contained Belarusian-made microchips.Read also:

In addition to all this, Minsk provided training grounds for Russian troops, conducted joint military exercises, and treated wounded occupiers in its hospitals.

How Belarus helps the Kremlin

BelPOL, a group of former military and police officers who oppose Lukashenko, has said that Belarusian industry is integrated into the Kremlin’s military machine. According to it, more than 500 Belarusian industrial enterprises are engaged in the production of weapons and ammunition, the repair of military equipment, and the provision of logistics.

“Lukashenko’s regime is very seriously involved in the war. Lukashenko is helping Russia in every way,” BelPOL head Volodymyr Zhygar told the publication.

He added that, for example, in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine, a huge training ground and barracks for a large number of soldiers are being built. Therefore, Ukraine is forced to maintain significant forces on the border with Belarus, he added.

In addition, Belarus has deployed some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons on its territory.

“Belarus does not have military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow deems it necessary, it will use Belarus as a springboard for a new invasion of Ukraine or any armed conflict with NATO countries,” Zhigar expressed his opinion, emphasizing that Belarus offers a “very convenient springboard” for such an invasion.

Is the Belarusian army fit for war?

According to official figures, the Belarusian armed forces number 48,600, a paltry 1.5 million compared to Russia’s 1.5 million. In the event of war, Belarus is prepared to mobilize 290,000 personnel, but they will need weapons and training to be combat-ready.

“The Belarusian army is not suitable for offensive actions. For an attack from Belarus, it is necessary to… mobilize up to 500,000 troops,” said Minsk-based military analyst Alexander Alesin.

That would mean removing all people from the national economy and finding them weapons, he said, adding: “I find that option unlikely.”

He added that Ukraine has built powerful fortifications on the border with Belarus and installed mines that can easily thwart any invasion attempt:

“Even with small forces, the Ukrainians can easily defend themselves and inflict heavy losses on the Belarusian army. From a military point of view, it is impossible to launch an offensive from the territory of Belarus without heavy losses.”

Alesin believes that Lukashenko is happy with Belarus’ position as a key supplier of military equipment, and he strongly opposes direct participation in the war:

“Lukashenko is the least likely to want to fight, and he will cling to his current position at all costs to avoid fighting, while reaping huge profits from the war.”

(C)UNIAN 2026